Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Although some Shi'a lawmakers see the creation of autonomous regions as a way out of the seemingly incessant violence wrecking the country, support for the law is not unanimous within the Shi'a bloc.

Implications

Sunni lawmakers boycotted yesterday's session of parliament, with the law introducing yet another divisive topic of contention, diverting attention from the much-needed task of restoring security to the country.

Outlook

The vote on federalism came as a new study by U.S. researchers claimed that over 650,000 Iraqi civilians have died since 2003. The U.S. administration disputes the findings.

Federalism and Its Discontents

Some 140 Iraqi lawmakers in the 275-member parliament yesterday gave their seal of approval to a hotly disputed law that introduces a political mechanism for the division of Iraq into autonomous regions. The most contentious aspect of the measure is the proposed merger of nine of Iraq's 18 provinces into one autonomous bloc in the Shi'a south. Critics of the legislation, principally from the Sunni bloc but also from within the Shi'a parties, claim that it will set in motion the disintegration of Iraq along sectarian lines. The proposal was initially submitted to parliament last month by the dominant Shi'a United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), provoking uproar among Sunni lawmakers who fear that the division of Iraq into autonomous regions will exclude them from the country's oil wealth; Iraq's oilfields are concentrated in the Shi'a south and the Kurdish north. Iraqi Sunnis are still reeling from the dramatic reversal in their political and economic fortunes since the fall of Saddam Hussein and Sunni politicians are also under attack by insurgents angered at their participation in the Shi'a led government. Earlier this week, a brother of Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi was killed, making him the third sibling of the leading Sunni political figure to be murdered in recent months.

Violence Continues Unabated

British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett stated that a recent study by the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, which claims that some 655,000 Iraqis have died since the U.S.-led invasion of 2003, was a “substantial leap” on previous numbers, although she stopped short of offering an alternative count. The U.S. administration has, however, been more forceful in dismissing the numbers, saying that the “methodology of the report” has been “pretty well discredited”, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). The wrangling over the body count does little to conceal the daily carnage that continues in Iraq despite a series of elaborate security measures introduced by the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Earlier today, gunmen dressed in Iraqi police uniform attacked an Iraqi television channel, killing eight people, according to BBC reports. This comes despite moves to kit out Iraq's police force in new blue-black-and-grey design uniforms in an effort to clamp down on impostors who have been donning police clothing in order to carry out sectarian and political killings . Although the restoration of security and an end to the lawlessness of the militias were cornerstone policies of Iraq's first permanent government, the country's leaders have so far failed to rebuild confidence in the fledgling security forces—let alone quell the tide of insurgent violence and sectarian attacks that have become particularly acute in the capital, Baghdad. Last week an entire Iraqi police brigade was taken out of operation for “retraining” following accusations that it had been party to Shi'a death squad activities. In recent weeks, hundreds of bodies have been discovered in predominantly Sunni neighbourhoods of Baghdad, in what are apparently sectarian killings. As part of an effort to address the growing divisions in the city's population, Iraqi lawmakers agreed earlier this week, in a rare show of unity, that every security checkpoint in Baghdad should be manned by an equal number of Shi'a and Sunni troops. Joint efforts to combat Iraq's lack of security could be compromised by a law that sets out an opposing political blueprint for a future Iraq.

Outlook and Implications

Although implementation of the federalism law has been shelved until 2008, at the earliest, the measure will further inflame Sunni grievances. This will add to the mistrust among Iraq's sectarian communities, which is likely to feed into the growing unrest. Some Shi'a lawmakers view the autonomy opinion as a way out of the insecurity affecting Iraq; Sunnis, however, see it as the knell for the breakdown of their country. Divisive debate over this contentious piece of legislation is now fully under way, although the outcome of these deliberations is still impossible to determine.

Contact: Raul Dary

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raul.dary@globalinsight.com

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