Northern Ireland's first minister, Peter Robinson, yesterday attempted to put an end to days of pressure and speculation by announcing that he was stepping down temporarily in order to attempt to resolve the personal and financial scandals that have engulfed the leader and his wife, Iris Robinson. In a statement, Robinson said that he was stepping down for six weeks "to take time for family matters". Robinson's leadership of Northern Ireland has became increasingly precarious in recent weeks as personal scandal became financial scandal following media revelations that in 2008 his wife arranged US$80,000 in loans for her lover, Kirk McCambley, who was 19 at the time. The scandal quickly escalated to the political level as questions were raised about Robinson's actions once he became aware of the loans arranged by his wife. Although Robinson has stated that he is only temporarily stepping down, his return to politics and the position of first minister will depend largely on the outcome of an investigation by the Northern Irish Assembly and the British Parliament into his conduct. Although speculation had been circulating for days that Robinson's political career was over, his Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) yesterday unanimously backed him, endorsing his six-week sabbatical and issuing statements underlining its confidence that Robinson will return to the party leadership and the role of first minister. This overwhelming show of support from the DUP is in large part thanks to Reverend Ian Paisley, the founder of the DUP whom Robinson succeeded as first minister 20 months ago.

Devolution of Policing and Justice Powers Facing Further Delays

The DUP has been quick to fill the void left by Robinson's abrupt departure, appointing Enterprise Minister Arlene Foster to the position of interim first minister in a bid to ensure that Northern Ireland's power-sharing government is not damaged. However, this might not be enough to prevent at least some instability, given the rocky nature of power-sharing over recent months. The departure of Robinson is unlikely to do much to expedite the issue of devolution of policing and justice powers from the British Parliament to the Northern Irish Assembly. This delay in devolution has created substantial problems for the government and created considerable tensions between the pro-British DUP and its power-sharing partner, the nationalist Sinn Féin, with both parties warning that the issue could lead to the collapse of the administration. Robinson, and Sinn Féin's deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness, have been unable to agree on the timing and details of devolution of policing and justice powers to the Northern Irish Assembly. Devolution of justice and policing powers is viewed as the final step in cementing the historic power-sharing agreement struck between Sinn Féin and the DUP in 2006, which actually requires the appointment of a justice minister. The issue has revealed deep-rooted differences between the two sides, with Sinn Féin insisting that the devolution be completed as quickly as possible, while the DUP has sought to delay the process, arguing that there would be a lack of community confidence were the Northern Irish Assembly to take over supervision of these powers immediately. Further contentious points include the funding allocation from the British government for the implementation of the new powers, agreement on which is proving difficult because of the need for fiscal tightening in the wake of the recession. Robinson and Foster were yesterday quick to clarify that the former will remain the DUP's lead negotiator on the issue of devolution. However, he is approaching negotiations without the political clout of the office of first minister, while Foster will lack the authority to reach any agreement with Sinn Féin. McGuinness, who has indicated his support for Robinson's temporary sabbatical, is unlikely to push too hard on the issue over the next six weeks since it would not be in anyone's favour for the power-sharing arrangement to be irrevocably damaged. At the same time, McGuinness's concession to the unusual sabbatical could strengthen Sinn Féin's position in the devolution negotiations.

Outlook and Implications

It is at present unclear whether this is the start of a managed exit from politics for Robinson or the initiation of a rehabilitation strategy for the bruised politician. Robinson and the DUP have undoubtedly been damaged by the personal and financial scandals that have engulfed the leader; furthermore, the affair has distracted attention away from pivotal issues at a key juncture in the devolution process. As a result, the DUP's reputation may have been significantly damaged in the longer term. This could lead Sinn Féin to take action to topple the power-sharing administration with a view to prompting new elections and possibly becoming the largest party in the Northern Irish Assembly. This turn of events is not the most likely outcome, but there is a faint possibility that Sinn Féin could look to capitalise on the current problems for the DUP and Robinson. Even if the present power-sharing administration were to collapse, there would be no threat to the Northern Irish peace process, given the commitment of both sides to peaceful, democratic politics. However, it would be a significant hiccup in the devolution of powers and attempts to move forward with increased autonomy for Northern Ireland.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)