A Unanimous Decision

The UN Security Council (UNSC) unanimously adopted a draft resolution on Saturday (14 October) to impose sanctions on North Korea, in a bid to punish the Stalinist regime for conducting a nuclear bomb test five days earlier (see North Korea: 9 October 2006: International Community Unites in Condemnation of North Korean Nuclear Test. The decision marked the end of nearly a week of drawn-out diplomatic negotiations on the issue, resulting from divisions within the international community regarding the degree of pressure that should be put on North Korea, including the possibility of enforcement action against the North Korean regime. In this context, Russia and China raised last-minute objections to the draft proposal put forward by the United States, which—along with its key ally Japan—has favoured a hardline course.

Conversely, China, South Korea and Russia have pushed for a more lenient approach, fearing the destabilising consequences that may ensue from the possible implosion of North Korea, which sees itself threatened by the expanding financial sanctions regime imposed by the United States last year, over the country’s alleged counterfeiting and financial crime. North Korea has continued to demand that the U.S. sanctions regime is lifted before it resumes the six-party talks on ending the regime's nuclear programme; these have remained deadlocked since last November, with Washington refusing to budge on the issue.

The North Korean government responded to the move by accusing the UN of “acting in a gangster-like manner” by imposing the sanctions, declaring that it would not give in to U.S. pressure. Kim Jong-il's administration also threatened last week to conduct yet another nuclear bomb test in the face of continued U.S. pressure.

Establishing a Framework for “Sanctions with Some Teeth”

Labelling the nuclear bomb test a “clear threat to international peace and security”, the UN resolution puts in place a framework for imposing “sanctions with some teeth”, demanding the dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, as well as the abandonment of all weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missiles. The resolution also allows countries to halt vessels going to and from North Korea, in order to inspect them for WMD or supplies for such weapons; however, on China’s insistence, countries are merely requested to do so, rather than being required. The resolution also puts in place a ban on trading in heavy conventional weapons and luxury goods, while also urging UN member states to put in place a freeze on North Korean funds that are linked to the country’s non-conventional weapons programme.

Outlook and Implications

The UN resolution constitutes a compromise between the United States and Japan on the one side and China, Russia and South Korea on the other, making for a course of action beleaguered by the divisions that have been glossed over in an attempt to reach a unified response by the international community. North Korea’s traditional allies, which hold permanent seats on the UN Security Council, have objected to the use of force, while Russia has also pressed for sanctions to carry a time limit. As such, it is a departure from the initial plan put forward by the United States, with the Bush administration abandoning its former insistence on a blanket arms embargo on North Korea and the use of force. Nevertheless, the action taken is the toughest ever agreed to by China, with the political leadership fearing destabilising refugee streams on its north-eastern border if North Korea implodes. China’s co-operation on the issue has been applauded by the United States, which has emphasised that the unanimous resolution sends “a clear message to North Korea” and other weapon proliferators that they will face tough repercussions. As such, the United States has emphasised that it expects China to play a decisive role in the enforcement of the U.S.-led sanctions, while U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is scheduled to undertake visits to China, Japan and South Korea this week, to negotiate the implementation of the UN resolution.

While the United States and Japan remain firmly committed to the enforcement of a tough sanctions regime, the prospect of implementing sanctions "with teeth" is likely to be severely circumscribed by the reluctance of China and South Korea to risk the implosion of the Kim Jong-Il regime. This was already made manifest yesterday, when the countries hinted that economic and business relations would be largely unaffected by the sanctions—something that would dilute their effectiveness, as the two countries are North Korea’s largest trading partners. Despite coming under increasing pressure from the opposition and the population at large to take a harder line, the South Korean government under Roh Moo-hyun made it clear yesterday that it would still pursue various economic projects with the North, including the Kaesong industrial project. Both China and South Korea fear that inspecting North Korean ships by force could lead to a military confrontation, and China has maintained that it is not intending to stop and inspect cross-border shipments. The relative lack of clarity on how the resolution will be enforced, along with the divergent foreign policy objectives of the various powers in the region, thus point to the new sanctions regime having a relatively watered-down impact. However, predicting how the crisis will unfold is made particularly difficult by the secrecy and unpredictability of the North Korean regime, and the degree to which it sees itself threatened by the sanctions. Meanwhile, the next week is likely to see the release of further details of how the resolution will be enforced, following the diplomatic visit of Condoleezza Rice to the region.

Contact: Raul Dary

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