The Consumer Confidence Index dipped in November, measuring 102.9, compared to 105.3 in October, according to the Conference Board. The Index is a survey that asks households around the country their opinion about the state of the economy. The decline indicates a slight uneasiness about the economy in anticipation of the holiday buying season.

Breaking the index down into its regional components, however, we see a divergent view of the changes in the economy based on region. The East North Central (ENC) region had a large decline in Consumer Confidence versus October (see the following table). This is a result of a slowdown in manufacturing employment in that region adding to a general uneasiness about the economy. The index for the region is the lowest that it has been since October of last year, when the entire nation was unsettled by the effects of the Gulf Coast hurricanes. The ENC region is comprised of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Regional Consumer Confidence Indices for 2006
	All U.S	New England	Middle Atlantic	South Atlantic	East South Central	East North Central	Mountain	Pacific
Jan-06	106.8	92.2	82.5	120.0	107.6	77.3	144.3	126.6
Feb-06	102.7	87.9	83.4	124.1	104.4	66.0	119.0	115.5
Mar-06	107.5	85.1	95.0	121.5	106.7	73.7	141.1	115.5
Apr-06	109.8	102.5	90.0	126.0	108.7	75.7	139.4	114.2
May-06	104.7	80.4	83.6	118.8	101.5	76.5	124.5	112.8
Jun-06	105.4	77.7	86.0	114.9	102.3	77.3	133.8	117.1
Jul-06	107.0	89.5	81.4	126.2	108.4	68.5	127.7	122.0
Aug-06	100.2	91.5	74.6	108.7	97.5	67.8	119.3	114.7
Sep-06	105.9	84.9	90.0	110.9	118.6	81.9	136.4	121.4
Oct-06	105.1	81.6	97.0	118.3	110.8	76.8	131.3	124.8
Nov-06	102.9	105.3	90.4	120.6	110.3	63.3	127.0	120.7

In contrast to the ENC region, households in the New England (NE) Region indicated that they are more bullish on the current state of the economy than they have been in the past. The index increased more than 20 points in November versus the October level. Employment growth in the region has been strong in 2006, and steady job gains made over the summer and fall are influencing the attitudes of New Englanders. The NE region includes Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.

The Consumer Confidence Index is a psychological construct that is used to determine U.S. households' attitudes about the economy. The strength of the economy is strongly correlated with consumer confidence. For example, comparing the November Index numbers across regions, we see that the Mountain, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions are much higher than the national average. Over the past few years, these regions' confidence numbers have been consistently higher than the U.S. average, and over that period they have also had stronger economies than the U.S. average. The Middle Atlantic Region index is lower than the national average—its economy has struggled since the 2001 recession. The index is a good indicator of the current state and consumers' expectations about the economy.

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