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06/04/2008 | Some Win, Some Lose at NATO Summit

Global Insight Staff

The NATO summit's results showed strength on military co-operation and weakness on policy and ideology issues.

 

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

The NATO summit is drawing to close today and the expected mixed results from the gathering have already transpired.

Implications

The alliance agreed on strengthening the Afghanistan campaign and the deployment of a nuclear shield in Central Europe. Only Albania and Croatia received membership invitations; FYR Macedonian aspirations were vetoed by Greece. Ukraine and Georgia will have to wait to join the body.

Outlook

NATO appears as heavyweight and as influential as it has ever been, but it may not be up for the role of world policy forum chairman it seems to want to assume.

The final day of the NATO summit in Bucharest (Romania) is an opportunity to take stock of the meeting. Not surprisingly, the alliance members have fared well over the issues of military cooperation—NATO's raison d'etre—but the United States' attempts at combining ideological clout with a push towards enlargement have been dampened by pragmatic and rational Western European members.

Military Consensus

Virtually all the issues relating to direct military co-operation put on the NATO agenda have been resolved favourably and without much ado. First and foremost, there was agreement on the strengthening of the NATO military mission in Afghanistan. France is committing a 700-strong battalion to deploy in the east of the country, thus freeing up more U.S. troops for battles in the harsher southern regions. Moreover, Central Asian states and, most notably, Russia, have agreed to provide transit routes for NATO supplies to the country, although this is so far limited to non-military items and personnel. France, furthermore, reiterated its commitment to re-integration into NATO military structures when the alliance establishes its Western European defence pillar, expected in 2009. On another matter close to the superpower's heart, NATO members endorsed the deployment of nuclear missile defence bases in Central Europe, and the Czech government has already signed documents to allow the stationing of a radar base on its territory. Poland is still formally contemplating the deployment of 10 defence missiles, as the government navigates its way between voters' wishes and the desire to gain maximum military aid concessions from the United States for its consent to deployment. The United States stood behind most of the proposals in the military basket, and can feel satisfied that almost all of these options have been taken up.

Chill on Enlargement

The summit was expected to deliver a highly symbolic measure as well, in the form of the enlargement prospects for new members. Only Albania and Croatia received the membership ticket, these being the least controversial countries. The secret member vote on Ukraine and Georgia's membership invitation returned a no vote, as Global Insight predicted. The former Soviet state's supporters tried to compensate those governments' pro-NATO efforts by announcing a "principle commitment" to see both states invited, although this came without a clear timeframe. Ukraine and Georgia's administrations chose to see the glass as half-full, too, and praised the NATO commitment. The idea of Ukrainian and Georgian membership in NATO was indeed too early for its time, and perhaps might best be seen as an ideological game that saw the United States attempting to garner influence in Russia's former satellites. Seeing this as a ploy to test Russia's reactions, NATO's Western European members obviously deemed this a game too foolish and worthless to play.

The most disappointing, dangerous, and frustrating outcome of the enlargement discussions, however, was the rejection of Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) Macedonia's membership. Despite having met all the military requirements, the country saw its application blocked by Greece as a result of a 17-year-long country name dispute. The FYR Macedonian government gambled on NATO invitations, and its rejection over an image—rather than a content—issue is likely to have detrimental consequences for the country's own security and integration into European structures (see a separate In Brief story below).

Outlook and Implications

The summit participants are going home with mixed results, and probably mixed feelings. This will be particularly true for the United States, which drove the majority of the proposals, especially after President George W. Bush expended much effort and publicity into the NATO enlargement effort. The clear-cut distinction between the success of the military agenda and the perceived failure of the NATO exercise in the ideological enlargement field reveal the essential contradiction between NATO's purpose and its aspirations. NATO was created as a military bloc, and is successful as such. This success is attracting onto the alliance's home turf other issues of world politics that should theoretically be settled in other fora, such as the UN .  As the need for new ways and means of handling international affairs becomes ever more apparent on the world stage, NATO, as a healthy organisation, may offer a temporary haven, but should ultimately be relieved of the duty and return to what it does best—assuring military security.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 



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