Significance: Embattled Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has repeated his call for political dialogue with the opposition in the face of rising protests and violence.

Implications: Opposition groups have become more organised and entrenched, while Shi’a Houthi rebels have thrown their support behind those calling for political change, increasing pressure on the government.

Outlook: Saleh’s survival is likely to become more dependent then ever on his ability to secure the support traditional tribal allies.

Calling the spread of uprisings in the region an “influenza”, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh told international media on 21 February: “I’ve said let’s agree on reforms. See what we need to do in terms of reforms and create a coalition.”

Up to 50,000 protesters have gathered at a time in ongoing demonstrations, with Taiz, 130 miles south of the capital Sana’a, drawing the largest crowds since the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on 11 February. Protesters have travelled to the highland city from the surrounding villages and towns, and other provinces, to take part. The most serious violence has been in the southern port city of Aden, where southern separatist-led demonstrators have clashed with government security forces, leaving as many as 11 dead. Security forces abandoned several districts of the city after protesters burnt down a police station, shops, and some government vehicles on 18 February.

The first day of peaceful demonstrating in Sana’a was 20 February, as more than 2,000 students began a sit-in outside the capital’s main university, with several hundred staying on the streets overnight. Similar encampments have been present in Taiz for more than a week. The previous day saw the most serious violence on the capital’s street to date, when two plain-clothes policemen shot four students. The first evidence of government troops being mobilised against citizens in the capital was seen at a night-time protest on the same day, which ended with activists fleeing though the streets near the university when highly trained and armed Central Security Force members charged a peaceful march of anti-government demonstrators.

Anti-government activists have become increasingly organised. A committee has been set up to arrange food and water supplies for protesters camping out at Sana’a University. Claiming no political allegiance, they plan to formally announce their demands, including the resignation of the president, in the coming days. On the roads leading to the university, demonstrators have created a human shield of linked arms around the encampment, with anyone entering the cordon subjected to frisking and bag checks to prevent arms and pro-Saleh men infiltrating the demonstration. For two nights, riot police have set up lines 200 yards from the activists’ cordon to keep a group of several hundred pro-Saleh men separate from the mainly student protesters.

The northern Houthi rebels have also pledged their allegiance with the protesters calling for the end of Saleh’s 32-year rule. Demonstrations in the northern province of Saada were reported on 21 February. A fragile ceasefire, signed to end the sixth war since 2004 in Saada between the Houthis and pro-government tribes and the military, has held since February last year.

Tribal Allegiances

President Saleh has been seeking to consolidate his support, following the announcement by seven members of parliament from his General People’s Congress (GPC) party of their resignation on 23 February as a result of recent violence, and the refusal by the speaker of the house to discuss the issue in parliament. The coalition of opposition parties, the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), withdrew their agreement to talks with the president and GPC following recent violence and deaths on 18 February, including a grenade attack on demonstrators in Taiz which left one man dead and more than 30 injured.

The loyalty of the tribes is crucial to the president maintaining his power base, and equally important to those seeking to undermine his position. On 20 February, Saleh held a rally addressing some 30,000 loyalist tribesmen. However, hundreds of tribesmen from Arhab arrived in Sana’a on 21 February to show their support for the student-led movement. Campaigners expect others from Marib, Al-Jawf, and Saada.

Against the backdrop of the grass-roots demonstrations has been a tribal squabble between Hamid al-Ahmar, one of the main leaders of the Islamic Islah party—Yemen’s largest opposition party with close links to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood—and the governor of Sana’a, No’man Dowid of the Khawlan tribe. Hamid is the son of the former powerful Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar, leader of Saleh’s Hashid tribe. Abdullah was central to Saleh’s rise to power in 1978. With his backing, the allegiance of the Hashid remained secure until Abdullah’s death in 2007. Earlier this month, one man was killed and three injured in what No’man claimed was an attack against him by Hamid’s gunmen. Hamid also accused No’man of sending gunmen to assassinate him and of stealing his car.

Historically, most of Yemen’s tribes have fought for whichever side has provided the greatest financial reward. Hamid is a prominent international businessman and owner of the Yemeni mobile phone network, Sabafon, as well as having interests in oil and the Bank of Saba. His wealth has been exploited by the ruling GPC, who have produced propaganda leaflets comparing Hamid’s lifestyle to that of Leila Ben Ali, the former Tunisian president’s wife.

Outlook and Implications

There have been reports that the call from protesters in Aden has changed from one for autonomy to demanding an end to the president’s rule. Collaboration between the three groups of separatists, northern rebels, and political activists would be the greatest threat to Saleh to date, and may result in him relying heavily on the loyalty of the tribes to remain in power. Major protests are planned across the country on 25 February, in addition to the funerals of two men killed in the capital during clashes between loyalists and activists on 23 February. The combination could ignite further violence, despite Saleh’s pledge to “offer full protection for the demonstrators”. Much will depend on the involvement of the tribes, and if Hamid al-Ahmar decides to challenge the president by openly supporting for his resignation.