Republicans: McCain Achieves What He Failed to in 2000

It had been clear for some time that Arizona Senator John McCain would win his party's nomination, but it was unclear how long his last remaining competitor, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, would keep going. The latter has achieved some notable victories during the primaries season, but had secured only a fraction of McCain's delegates. In the event, four straight victories for McCain yesterday settled the race and Huckabee bowed out gracefully.

The result is a huge achievement for McCain, who had been all but written off as the primaries got under way. He has overcome deep misgivings within his own party about his "maverick" policies and has beaten off much better-funded candidates such as former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. The victory is also sweet after McCain's bitter memories of 2000 when he was beaten by current president George W. Bush. With the race settled relatively early, McCain now has a good opportunity to unite his party behind his candidacy and exploit the Democrats' squabbling. The primaries have shown that evangelical Christians, in particular, are not enamoured of McCain, however. He is regarded as too "liberal" on a range of issues and he will struggle to marshal their votes. Bush's victories in 2000 and 2004 were both underpinned by strong Christian evangelical support. Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, saw his challenge sustained by this group.

Although there is a history of enmity between them, Bush is now expected to endorse McCain's candidacy strongly and become much more involved in the race than he has been to date. There is much interest in who McCain will now pick as his running mate. He has given no hints so far, although with concerns over his age (71), he is likely to go with someone significantly younger. In previous elections it has been common to pick a defeated rival for the nomination, but none really stands out as a great asset. Huckabee or Romney would be the two most likely from this group, but carry drawbacks for McCain. It is thought more likely that he will turn to the wider ranks of Republican governors. Names being floated include Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Charlie Crist of Florida, Jon Huntsman Jnr of Utah, and Mark Sanford of South Carolina.

Democrats: The Fight Goes On

In sharp contrast to the Republicans, the Democrats are still a long way off settling on their candidate. After 11 straight defeats, New York Senator Hillary Clinton yesterday made a stunning comeback by winning three out of four—Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island. Illinois Senator Barack Obama had to console himself with a single victory in Vermont. He came very close in Texas, but he had been hoping to finish off Clinton with a win there, and preferably in Ohio too. He pointed out yesterday that the results are unlikely to change his delegate lead significantly (estimated by the Associated Press as 1,477 to Clinton's 1,391), but the results are nonetheless a setback to his momentum. Clinton was quick to remind her supporters that “No candidate in recent history—Democratic or Republican—has won the White House without winning the Ohio primary. We all know that if we want a Democratic president, we need a Democratic nominee who can win Democratic states just like Ohio.” The blue-collar vote is very important to the Democrats in Ohio and Clinton rallied support with populist outbursts against the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and other supposed causes of manufacturers' woes. She also played the experience card strongly, with some emotive television adverts asking voters whether they would trust the relatively untried Obama at a time of national emergency. She did particularly well among Hispanics in Texas, and lower-income women in Ohio, the two groups that she sees as her bedrock.

The big question now is whether "Obama-mania" is flagging. To date he has been sustained by unprecedented popular fervour, on the back of his charisma and promise of change. If this wanes, his relative lack of experience comes more sharply into focus, as do his ill-defined policies. Nevertheless, the delegate mathematics are still on his side, with his aides suggesting his lead is virtually impossible for Clinton to overturn in the remaining contests. If the fight does go right to the line, the so-called "super-delegates" will become critical. These are senior members of the party, including members of Congress, who can cast their votes as they wish. A great number of these have been flocking to Obama lately, but Clinton could still win sufficient numbers back if his campaign flounders.

Outlook and Implications

McCain is probably the Republican hopeful the Democrats have feared most. He has the ability to compete with them policy-wise for the middle ground, unlike Huckabee, and his easy charm has broad appeal. McCain will need to tread a careful line, however, on one hand reassuring conservative Republicans, while on the other marking himself out as a change from the unpopular Bush. He signalled yesterday that he will focus his attention on the economy and healthcare when taking on the Democrats: “I will leave it to my opponent to propose returning to the failed, big-government mandates of the ’60s and ’70s to address problems such as the lack of health care insurance for some Americans. I will campaign to make health care more accessible to more Americans with reforms that will bring down costs in the health care industry without ruining the quality of the world’s best medical care.” However, national security is also sure to figure highly, with McCain drawing on his celebrated military record to portray himself as the natural "commander-in-chief".