Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
  En Parrilla Medio Ambiente Sociedad High Tech Contacto
Economia y Finanzas  
 
10/09/2010 | Recovery in Russian Manufacturing, Transport and Trade Boosts GDP in Q2

Global Insight Staff

Detailed data on developments in Russian GDP in the second quarter confirmed the flash estimate of 5.2% year-on-year growth; on the sector-of-origin side, manufacturing, transport and trade led the recovery, sectors that were particularly hard hit by the recession in 2008-09.

 

IHS Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

Russia's moderately paced economic recovery picked up some momentum in the second quarter of 2010.

Implications

The economy has returned to growth as consumer and business confidence have rebounded somewhat; nevertheless aggregate output remains well below the level achieved in the first half of 2008.

Outlook

Despite the increased momentum in the second quarter, the growth rate in the full year is likely to end up at the same 4.2% chalked up in the second quarter as the heat wave and widespread wildfires in the third quarter will take a bite out of second-half performance.

Russia's Federal State Statistics Service (RosStat) has released detailed data on developments in GDP in the second quarter of 2010 by sector of origin. The new data confirm the earlier flash estimate of 5.2% year-on-year (y/y) GDP growth in the second quarter following upwardly revised growth at 3.1% y/y in the first quarter. For the first half of the year, the growth figure came in at 4.2% compared with a decline in GDP by 10.2% in the same period of 2009. This means that despite the pick-up in growth momentum in the second quarter relative to a quarter earlier, the level of aggregate output remained well below that achieved in the first half of 2008. Data on the breakdown of GDP by end-use in the second quarter of 2010 will be made available at a later date.

Trends in GDP by Sector of Origin (% change, Y/Y)

 

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

H1 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

H1 2010

Agriculture and Forestry

-0.8

-1.5

-1.2

2.7

1.1

1.8

Natural Resource Extraction

-3.4

-5.2

-4.4

11.7

5.2

8.4

Manufacturing

-24.7

-19.6

-22.1

13.4

15.3

14.4

Electricity, Gas and Water

-7.0

-3.8

-5.7

9.0

3.7

6.8

Construction

-19.2

-20.9

-20.2

-8.9

-0.3

-3.9

Trade

-7.2

-14.6

-10.9

-0.1

3.7

1.7

Transport and Communication

-7.4

-6.6

-7.0

9.5

9.6

9.5

Financial Activity

10.6

2.0

6.2

-7.3

-1.2

-4.3

Real Estate

1.0

-2.7

-1.0

-4.9

2.4

-1.0

State Administration

1.3

2.0

1.7

2.4

1.5

1.9

Education

-1.4

-1.3

-1.3

0.6

0.2

0.4

Healthcare

-0.2

0.4

0.1

0.0

-0.6

-0.3

Other services

-10.1

-13.2

-11.7

-19.8

-18.2

-19.0

GDP

-9.3

-11.0

-10.2

3.1

5.2

4.2

Source: RosStat

The rebound in the second quarter was led by those sectors that took the brunt of the 2008-09 recession. Manufacturing in particular, which saw a 22.1% decline in output in the first half of 2009, grew at 15.3% y/y. This was followed by a 9.6% increase in value added in transport and communication, which typically moves in concert with industry and agriculture, and a 5.2 % y/y increase in value added in natural resource extraction. Two sectors that did not fit this pattern were construction and financial activity. Although value-added in the construction sector declined by nearly 20% y/y in the second quarter of 2009, it declined a further 0.3% y/y in the second quarter of 2010 and was down 3.9% in the first half of the year. This reflects continued weakness in capital spending by Russian enterprises. In contrast, value added in financial services was the only sector to enjoy significant growth in value added in the first half of 2009. The picture was markedly different in the first half of 2010. Value added in financial services plunged 7.3% y/y in the first quarter and 1.2% y/y in the second, but from a relatively high base.

Outlook and Implications

The detailed data on second-quarter GDP illustrate the profile of the strengthening rebound of the Russian economy from the one-two punch of global economic recession and a worldwide credit crunch that was particularly severe in Russia where the private sector was heavily burdened with foreign debt in the face of a sharply depreciating rouble. Manufacturing in particular was regaining ground at a strong pace in the second quarter, yet it had yet to regain the level of value added achieved in the same quarter of 2008. We would have expected the Russian economy to experience accelerating growth in the second half of 2010 as the rebound to date supported gains in consumer and business confidence. However, the extended heat wave and drought in the course of the third quarter not only caused substantial damage to crops, it also engendered widespread wildfires and crippling clouds of smoke that brought economic activity to a standstill in Moscow and other regions. These conditions took a healthy bite out of growth in the third quarter and IHS Global Insight expects that growth for the full year will come in at the same 4.2% achieved in the first half.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 1 to 10 of 1134 )
fecha titulo
16/06/2017 Russia, Putin, The Russian Mafia - Poison in the System (I)
15/08/2014 Geopolítica: El aislamiento ruso
10/08/2014 El gran desestabilizador
29/04/2014 Is Vladimir Putin a Rational Actor?
26/04/2014 Geopolítica: Los ejercicios militares y los juegos de guerra de Putin
04/02/2014 The Loneliness of Vladimir Putin
31/01/2014 Russia and the world - The triumph of Vladimir Putin
30/12/2013 Suicide bomber strikes Russia. Another 'black widow?'
26/12/2013 Putin Celebrates Birth Of KGB, USSR’s Hated Spy Service
22/12/2013 Rusia - El ocaso de los oligarcas


Otras Notas del Autor
fecha
Título
03/04/2011|
26/03/2011|
20/03/2011|
26/02/2011|
18/02/2011|
18/02/2011|
15/02/2011|
12/02/2011|
10/02/2011|
10/02/2011|
07/02/2011|
03/02/2011|
01/02/2011|
29/01/2011|
26/01/2011|
26/01/2011|
26/01/2011|
25/01/2011|
22/01/2011|
20/01/2011|
20/01/2011|
18/01/2011|
18/01/2011|
17/01/2011|
17/01/2011|
15/01/2011|
14/01/2011|
12/01/2011|
12/01/2011|
10/01/2011|
06/01/2011|
06/01/2011|
01/01/2011|
31/12/2010|
31/12/2010|
25/12/2010|
25/12/2010|
25/12/2010|
18/12/2010|
14/12/2010|
10/12/2010|
26/11/2010|
26/11/2010|
20/11/2010|
17/11/2010|
17/11/2010|
17/11/2010|
15/11/2010|
13/11/2010|
13/11/2010|
12/11/2010|
12/11/2010|
05/11/2010|
04/11/2010|
04/11/2010|
31/10/2010|
09/10/2010|
02/10/2010|
02/10/2010|
17/09/2010|
10/07/2010|
10/07/2010|
08/04/2010|
05/04/2010|
18/03/2010|
17/03/2010|
16/03/2010|
09/03/2010|
09/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
04/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
01/03/2010|
26/02/2010|
26/02/2010|
24/02/2010|
23/02/2010|
22/02/2010|
20/02/2010|
20/02/2010|
17/02/2010|
17/02/2010|
16/02/2010|
15/02/2010|
12/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
09/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
05/02/2010|
04/02/2010|
04/02/2010|
04/02/2010|
02/02/2010|
01/02/2010|
31/01/2010|
31/01/2010|
22/01/2010|
21/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
19/01/2010|
19/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
14/01/2010|
13/01/2010|
12/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
08/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
05/01/2010|
04/01/2010|
31/12/2009|
31/12/2009|
30/12/2009|
24/12/2009|
23/12/2009|
22/12/2009|
21/12/2009|
18/12/2009|
17/12/2009|
16/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
14/12/2009|
14/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
11/12/2009|
11/12/2009|
10/12/2009|
10/12/2009|
08/12/2009|
08/12/2009|
08/12/2009|
08/12/2009|
04/12/2009|
04/12/2009|
04/12/2009|
04/12/2009|
03/12/2009|
03/12/2009|
01/12/2009|
01/12/2009|
01/12/2009|
01/12/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
26/11/2009|
26/11/2009|
25/11/2009|
25/11/2009|
24/11/2009|
24/11/2009|
23/11/2009|
23/11/2009|
22/11/2009|
22/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
13/11/2009|
13/11/2009|
11/11/2009|
11/11/2009|
11/11/2009|
11/11/2009|
10/11/2009|
10/11/2009|
07/11/2009|
06/11/2009|
04/11/2009|
04/11/2009|
02/11/2009|
31/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
29/10/2009|
28/10/2009|
27/10/2009|
21/10/2009|
21/10/2009|
19/10/2009|
15/10/2009|
14/10/2009|
13/10/2009|
12/10/2009|
09/10/2009|
09/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
06/10/2009|
05/10/2009|
02/10/2009|
01/10/2009|
01/10/2009|
01/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
21/09/2009|
19/09/2009|
17/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
15/09/2009|
14/09/2009|
12/09/2009|
12/09/2009|
12/09/2009|
10/09/2009|
09/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
04/09/2009|
03/09/2009|
02/09/2009|
01/09/2009|
31/08/2009|
29/08/2009|
27/08/2009|
27/08/2009|
26/08/2009|
24/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
20/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
18/08/2009|
17/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
12/08/2009|
12/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
10/08/2009|
10/08/2009|
07/08/2009|
07/08/2009|
06/08/2009|
06/08/2009|
05/08/2009|
05/08/2009|
04/08/2009|
04/08/2009|
03/08/2009|
03/08/2009|
01/08/2009|
01/08/2009|
29/07/2009|
29/07/2009|
29/07/2009|
29/07/2009|
27/07/2009|
27/07/2009|
25/07/2009|
25/07/2009|
23/07/2009|
23/07/2009|
23/07/2009|
23/07/2009|
21/07/2009|
21/07/2009|
20/07/2009|
20/07/2009|
17/07/2009|
17/07/2009|
16/07/2009|
16/07/2009|
16/07/2009|
15/07/2009|
15/07/2009|
15/07/2009|
28/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
18/01/2009|
10/01/2009|
06/01/2009|
05/01/2009|
02/01/2009|
24/12/2008|
24/12/2008|
24/12/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
03/10/2008|
03/10/2008|
03/10/2008|
03/10/2008|
24/09/2008|
24/09/2008|
20/09/2008|
20/09/2008|
18/09/2008|
18/09/2008|
18/09/2008|
18/09/2008|
10/09/2008|
10/09/2008|
08/09/2008|
08/09/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
13/05/2008|
12/05/2008|
12/05/2008|
10/05/2008|
04/05/2008|
02/05/2008|
27/04/2008|
27/04/2008|
24/04/2008|
24/04/2008|
24/04/2008|
24/04/2008|
24/04/2008|
24/04/2008|
06/04/2008|
26/03/2008|
20/03/2008|
19/03/2008|
13/03/2008|
10/03/2008|
07/03/2008|
05/03/2008|
18/02/2008|
06/02/2008|
03/02/2008|
01/02/2008|
01/02/2008|
21/12/2007|
21/12/2007|
08/12/2007|
08/12/2007|
02/11/2007|
30/10/2007|
30/10/2007|
27/10/2007|
25/10/2007|
20/10/2007|
04/10/2007|
28/09/2007|
28/09/2007|
31/08/2007|
31/08/2007|
30/08/2007|
30/08/2007|
15/08/2007|
11/08/2007|
11/08/2007|
31/07/2007|
28/07/2007|
28/07/2007|
04/07/2007|
30/06/2007|
30/06/2007|
30/06/2007|
30/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
13/06/2007|
13/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
16/05/2007|
16/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
30/04/2007|
30/04/2007|
26/04/2007|
26/04/2007|
25/04/2007|
25/04/2007|
25/04/2007|
25/04/2007|
21/04/2007|
21/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
10/04/2007|
10/04/2007|
07/04/2007|
07/04/2007|
04/04/2007|
04/04/2007|
02/04/2007|
02/04/2007|
01/04/2007|
28/03/2007|
28/03/2007|
25/03/2007|
25/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
28/02/2007|
23/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
08/01/2007|
08/01/2007|
08/01/2007|
08/01/2007|
06/01/2007|
06/01/2007|
04/01/2007|
04/01/2007|
29/12/2006|
29/12/2006|
28/12/2006|
28/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
09/12/2006|
09/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
25/11/2006|
25/11/2006|
23/11/2006|
23/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
02/11/2006|
01/11/2006|
01/11/2006|
28/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
20/10/2006|
20/10/2006|
20/10/2006|
20/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
07/10/2006|
07/10/2006|
07/10/2006|
05/10/2006|
04/10/2006|
04/10/2006|
04/10/2006|
04/10/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
06/09/2006|
04/09/2006|
04/09/2006|
02/09/2006|
02/09/2006|
02/09/2006|
01/09/2006|
30/08/2006|
02/08/2006|
02/08/2006|
30/07/2006|
30/07/2006|
27/07/2006|
27/07/2006|
21/07/2006|
20/07/2006|
20/07/2006|
18/07/2006|
16/07/2006|
13/07/2006|
12/07/2006|
12/07/2006|
07/07/2006|
07/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
29/06/2006|
29/06/2006|
29/06/2006|
29/06/2006|
28/06/2006|
26/06/2006|
26/06/2006|
21/06/2006|
21/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
04/06/2006|
09/05/2006|
03/05/2006|
03/05/2006|
03/05/2006|
03/05/2006|
18/02/2006|
04/02/2006|
04/02/2006|
29/01/2006|
23/09/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House