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05/10/2009 | Rapid Recovery Continues in Brazil, Bullish Sentiment Fuelled by 2016 Olympics Victory

Global Insight Staff

Industrial production jumped 1.2% in August with respect to July, confirming that the Brazilian economy is in solid recovery; this was further boosted by major news from Copenhagen (Denmark) that Rio de Janeiro is to be awarded the 2016 Summer Olympic Games.

 

IHS Global Insight Perspective

Significance: Seasonally adjusted data shows that industrial production grew 1.2% in August compared to July, the eight consecutive month of positive growth.

Implications: Brazilian industry continues to recover from its nosedive in late 2008, while still well below its Q3 2008 peak. August data reaffirms that the path to recovery is solid and sustained.

Outlook: IHS Global Insight estimates that Brazil's GDP will grow 3.9% and 5.4% in 2010 and 2011, after almost nil growth in 2009; the medium-term outlook has been enhanced by the announcement that Rio de Janeiro will host the 2016 Summer Olympic Games.

Seasonally adjusted data shows industrial production expanding 1.2% in August with respect to July levels. In a monthly comparison, production of capital goods increased 0.4% while production of intermediate goods was up 0.7%; production of consumption goods grew 1.3%, driven by the recovery in output of durable goods. Regarding the behaviour of the different sectors that comprise the industrial output index, the government statistics office (IBGE) said that 15 of 27 activities showed positive growth in August compared with July levels.

The automotive sector accounts for a significant share of the recovery as it is coming back from a depressed level. The automotive sector, and Brazilian industry in general, have gone through a huge inventory correction triggered by the world recession, but the process of rebuilding has begun, leading to rapid growth in industrial production. Also, government programmes in the form of tax breaks for purchases of automobiles and electric appliances are fuelling production of theses durable items. Domestic demand, as measured by retail sales, remains relatively strong as it has not decreased despite the global economic recession and the slowdown of the Brazilian economy. The rate of growth of retail sales in the first seven months of the year was 4.6% year-on-year (y/y), down from 9.1% in 2008 as a whole, but still positive. There is no data for August yet. Industrial production dropped 7.2% in August compared to August 2008 y/y.

Rio de Janeiro 2016 Olympics

Rio de Janeiro has been awarded the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. The Brazilian proposal for the event amounts to almost US$14 billion, or 1% of current GDP. A similar figure was spent by China (Beijing 2008) and Greece (Athens 2004), although in the case of Greece it represented 4% of its GDP and left the city with large amounts of unneeded infrastructure.

The prospects for Rio are more promising; the city has already hosted the 2007 Pan-American Games, and the Maracanã stadium will be ready by 2016, after it is upgraded for the 2014 soccer World Cup. The 2016 Olympic project will require the building and upgrading of infrastructure for the games themselves (stadiums etc) as well as investment in transportation, security, environment, and tourism facilities. Violent crime in Rio's poor neighborhoods, or "favelas", will impose additional costs on the event, however, these slums are not in close proximity to the venues where the events will take place. One exception is the Maracanã stadium, which will require enhanced security. The government says it has budgeted US$4 billion to clean polluted waters used for sailing and other water sports. Improvement in the transportation system will also cost the city around US$5 billion.

Outlook and Implications

The Brazilian economy came out of a short-lived recession in the second quarter of the year and growth is expected to accelerate to the end of 2009. The industry continues to recover, in part, helped by government programmes aimed at encouraging demand for automobiles and electronic appliances. Labour market indicators are also very encouraging as the unemployment rate has not increased during the crisis while job creation has remained in positive territory. In the first half of 2010 growth will decelerate as the fiscal stimulus is withdrawn; private investment will help the economy to regain momentum in the second half of the year while private consumption resumes growth, but in a more organic fashion, i.e. without support or subsidies from the government. External demand will continue to be slow as the rest of the world, and in particular Brazil’s large trading partners such as the United States and the Eurozone countries, recover only slowly during 2010. On an annual basis, IHS Global Insight forecasts GDP to be flat in 2009 as a whole, before rebounding by 3.9% in 2010.

 

Industrial Production Percent Change

 

Aug-09

m/m*

Aug-09

y/y

January-August 2009

y/y

Total Industry

1.2

-7.2

-12.1

Capital Goods

0.4

-22.3

-23.0

Intermediate Goods

0.7

-8.1

-14.2

Consumption Goods

1.3

-1.9

-6.1

---Durables

3.1

-3.7

-15.6

---Semi and non-durables

0.6

-1.3

-2.8

*month-on-month, seasonally adjusted data
Source: National Statistics Institute (IBGE)

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


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