Significance: The long-awaited vote will be crucial in determining the future status of south Sudan and could lead to the break-up of the Sudanese state.

Implications: Preparations for a post-referendum Sudan have been weak at best and a plethora of issues, including the future status of Abyei and what is to become of the country's wealth-sharing formula, will remain essentially unresolved should the south gain independence.

Outlook: The success of the newly independent state will be closely determined by the relationship between the governments in the north and the south, given the former's ability to destabilise the south and derail any advances it may make.

A High Turnout

Thousands of eager southern Sudanese queued for hours to cast their ballots in the southern capital, Juba, for a second day today, according to news reports, raising the possibility of a high voter turnout that could serve to legitimise the eventual outcome of the historic vote further. The atmosphere has so far been one of jubilation, with far fewer instances of violence than had previously been expected. Voters were given ballots on which they could choose from two images: a man standing alone, representing independence; and two clasped hands, signifying unity. Polling stations had been scheduled to close at 5:00 pm yesterday, but many polling stations opened for another two hours or more to deal with the sheer volume of people. Provisions for the referendum on independence were stipulated under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which brought the two-decade-long war between the north and the south to an end in 2005. Since the signing of the agreement, the former rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/SPLA), which now governs the semi-autonomous south, has been a partner in the fragile national unity government.

Support for separation has been growing in the south as the perception that the government in the north had continued to back-pedal over key pledges continued to take root, and hopes of a unified and a religiously and ethnically inclusive Sudan on the path towards becoming a fully fledged democracy began to evaporate. There have also been major doubts over whether the north has indeed been giving the south, one of the most underdeveloped regions in the world, its fair share of oil revenues. Most of Sudan’s oil wealth is located in the south and the border region that straddles north and south Sudan. Although in 2005, following the signing of the peace accord, southern independence was by no means guaranteed, it is now hard to see how the vote could go any other way.

The government in the north for its part has vowed to accept the eventual outcome of the referendum even if this entails a split and there are signs that the two sides are continuing to co-operate, something that is crucial to ensure that the process runs smoothly. Sudan People's Liberation Movement leader and first vice-president Salva Kiir Mayardit, following a meeting with Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir last week, announced that he had ordered rebel groups from the conflict-wracked region of Darfur to leave Juba, the capital of southern Sudan, where many had sought refuge. The decision made by the southern leadership will be of immense value to Bashir, especially against a backdrop of heightened tensions in Darfur. The agreement over the hosting of groups deemed a threat to the north’s national security is testimony to the current clout of Bashir and the influence he is still likely to wield in the south after the referendum, as well as the risks the north could pose in derailing the southern project should it wish to. Both the north and the south, therefore, have an interest in maintaining good relations during this key transition period.

Regional Ramifications

Other nations in East Africa are expected to tap the benefits of the split given that new opportunities for trade and investment are likely to emerge. Kenyan, Ugandan, and Ethiopian companies in particular seem to be looking to guarantee themselves a share of the action. Kenya in particular is positioning itself as a logistics hub, potentially serving as an alternative export route for the landlocked country instead of Port Sudan in the north. Office space in some areas of the capital remains in demand on the back of a rise in the number of international firms and consultancies setting up offices; the prices of some services and goods are also rising. Optimism about new opportunities in a newly independent south Sudan nonetheless remains tempered by concerns over violence. According to a report by economic consultancy Frontier Economics, a return to war might cost African countries 34% of their total annual GDP spanning a 10-year period. This could potentially set back countries like Kenya and Ethiopia by US$1 billion annually.

Outlook and Implications

Should the transition to two separate states be well managed and uncompromised by violence, north-south trade could become an engine for growth in addition to the oil sector. Moreover, foreign direct investment could surge in the south if it succeeds in putting in place comprehensive policies and legal instruments necessary for the conduct of investment and trade. It could also provide benefits to neighbouring countries. Should the south secede, it remains in the interest of both sides to maintain good relations: it would help the south to secure its borders and for the north it would mean a continuation of some leverage over southern affairs. The transition is also likely to occur within a favourable context with the United States and the rest of the international community is likely to prop up a newly independent south. Previous U.S. administrations have shown an ideological commitment to supporting a southern Sudan; the current U.S. administration is no exception and this is something that could provide a significant advantage.

It must, however, also be remembered that a number of outstanding issues remain. These include the landlocked south’s arrangements for exporting its oil and the future status of the contested town Abyei. The town has its own special status and was to have its own referendum this month on independence; however, the referendum was postponed following a dispute over the composition of the electoral commission, thus ensuring that the transition is likely to be fraught with difficulties.