Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The latest Guardian-ICM poll shows Labour on just 32% support, the lowest for the party in 20 years (although the same as in May). This comes on the heels of another survey of Labour members that shows strong support for an early Blair departure.

Implications

Blair previously announced that he would stand down ahead of the next general election (anticipated in 2009), but supporters of his presumed successor, Chancellor Gordon Brown, are increasingly impatient.

Outlook

The polls suggest that Blair is no longer an electoral asset and that he is unable to stem the gradual progress of the re-invigorated Conservatives. It is much too early to write Labour off as a spent political force, but little is going right for the party at the moment.

Things Can Only Get Worse?

Prime Minister Tony Blair must dread opening the newspapers each morning. There will almost certainly be stories about Labour's infighting, 'devastating' polls, revelations about Home Office failings, and Blair's supposed plans to quit. Much of the coverage is exaggerated, but the flames are nonetheless stoked by regular off-the-record briefings by disaffected Labour figures. There is a cumulative impact of all the criticism on public opinion, and successive polls are finding a gradual decline in support for the ruling party.

The latest Guardian-ICM poll has been published today, and it shows Labour support down from 34% to 32%, the lowest level for the party in 20 years (albeit the same figure that was recorded in May). Its previous lowest rating was in June 1987 when the party was in such a poor position. The Conservatives are well ahead on 37%, while the Liberal Democrats are up one point at 21%. It should be noted, nonetheless, that the Conservatives' ascent has hardly been dramatic – their latest poll rating is one point down on the previous survey. Over the weekend (17-18 June), Blair was hit by another bad poll, this time by YouGov, which found that 71% of Labour members want Blair to stand aside before the party's September 2007 conference. This is clearly very damaging to Blair's standing, but it is now widely thought that he would be content to bow out mid-next year anyway. Those wanting Blair to resign within the next three months were just over a third of the total. Some 23% of those polled even want Labour to lose the next election and spend some time revitalising itself in opposition.

So how much do the latest polls really say about Labour's prospects? The party can blame some short-term controversies and mid-term blues for some of the decline. Recent weeks have seen a succession of revelations about immigration policy and law-and-order failings. The Home Office is in the firing line and new Home Secretary John Reid has not managed to turn the situation around as yet. Labour may trail the Conservatives by five points, but ministers will point out that bigger deficits have been overcome in the past come election time.

But the poor poll ratings also reflect longer-term voter disaffection with the Labour government. Iraq always looms large, and the relentless news about atrocities and political setbacks wound the government. There may have been some better news lately, such as the death of al-Qaida’s leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and the formation of the Iraqi government, but there is a great deal of scepticism about Iraq among voters that is very hard to dislodge. The poll of Labour members showed that 52% believe the invasion of Iraq is the worst policy mistake Labour has made since coming to power in 1997. On the domestic front, there are long-standing problems within the Labour Party over the government's move to the centre and its embrace of public-sector policies previously associated with the Conservatives. However, while this may have weakened core support, the 'New Labour' agenda has been central to the party's success in courting former Conservative voters and dominating the middle ground. It is not so much particular policies that damage Labour on the domestic front; it is more the perception that the party has become arrogant in power and that it is running out of answers to voter concerns.

Outlook and Implications

Despite all the rumours and premature obituaries, Tony Blair does not look in any hurry to stand down. He is well used to facing down his critics and thwarting internal plots. He is trying to seize back the initiative with new policy announcements, notably a new package of criminal justice system reforms. Chancellor Gordon Brown is meanwhile very cautious about wielding the knife, and has swallowed the temptation to do so many times in the past. Brown's succession is not guaranteed, moreover, and many suspect that Blair is hoping to manoeuvre one of his close allies into pole position instead.

While Blair looks unlikely to stand aside this year, 2007 would be a strong bet. This is not the full fourth term that Blair would like, but it would mark a decade in power and he could quit with some pride intact. Blair is determined not to have a timetable imposed on him. Post-Blair Labour will in all likelihood struggle to regain its lead over the Conservatives, but the latter's success should not be exaggerated. Youthful leader David Cameron may have given them a spring in their step and a more moderate image, but his approval ratings are not as high as one might expect. His privileged background and perceived policy opportunism seem to play against him among many voters. It seems that there will be all to play for once the anticipated 2009 general election arrives.

Raul Dary

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