Significance: The ousted president of Honduras, Manuel Zelaya, yesterday declared the failure of mediation efforts as the interim government remains intransigent on his possible return to power, despite concessions contained in the last offer from Costa Rican president Oscar Arias.

Implications: With Costa Rican mediation efforts practically exhausted, uncertainty in the short term is again on the rise, as the ousted Zelaya has vowed to make another attempt to return to Honduras as early as today.

Outlook: With proposals that the Organization of American States (OAS) should take over the negotiations, international pressure on the interim government will remain high. Nonetheless, against a background of rising domestic polarisation, much will depend on what happens when Zelaya makes good on his promise to return.

Arias’s Last Offer

Following the expiration of the 72-hour deadline set by Costa Rica's President Oscar Arias, efforts to reach a negotiated solution to the Honduran political crisis suffered a setback yesterday when a last-minute mediation offer from President Arias failed to break the impasse. Arias’s offer was not dramatically different from his previous plans, but it did include some concessions to the Honduran de facto government led by former Congress president Roberto Micheletti. Under the 11-point plan, dubbed the San José Accord, ousted leader Manuel Zelaya would return to Honduras within two days to serve out his presidential term, heading a national conciliation government. In return, his powers would be further curtailed, explicitly barring him from making a new attempt to call a constitutional assembly. An amnesty covering political crimes committed during the administration of the de facto government would be declared, and general elections would be brought forward by a month to 28 October. The plan, which Arias said was his last mediation attempt, also calls for a truth commission to investigate the events in the run-up to the coup. Hopes that this offer might break the impasse were dashed, however, after ousted leader Manuel Zelaya declared the talks a failure, blaming the intransigence of the interim government on his possible return to power for the breakdown of mediation efforts.

Domestic Tensions

With international talks heading for failure, domestic tensions have continued to build. Yesterday saw another round of rival demonstrations. Thousands of Micheletti's supporters protested against a possible return to power for Zelaya, whose approval ratings had been plunging before he was ousted. In return, supporters of the ousted leader also took to the streets. Trade unions, students and social movements, which make up part of Zelaya's core constituency, are finishing preparations to embark on a two-day strike today, in an effort to demonstrate against the interim government. Complicating the situation further is the order given by the interim government that Venezuelan diplomatic officials should leave the country within 72 hours. The Hondurans argue that the Venezuelan government has attempted to stir up unrest in the country.

Outlook and Implications

Although ousted leader Zelaya has declared the failure of Costa Rican mediation efforts, the interim government left the door ajar when it said the plan would be submitted for consideration to Micheletti and the other branches of government. Nevertheless, prospects for the compromise to stick are slim, as the hardliners in the interim government—including Micheletti and the Supreme Court—remain adamant in opposing Zelaya’s return to power. With the failure of Costa Rican mediation looming, President Arias has suggested that the Organization of American States (OAS) take over the negotiations. While this would again raise the international pressure on the interim government, the main variable affecting the short-term outlook will be whether Zelaya, who is currently in neighbouring Nicaragua, makes good on his vow to return to Honduras as early as today. His first attempt to do so failed when the military blocked the airstrip on which his plane was trying to land. Against a background of rising domestic tension, fears that a new attempt by Zelaya to enter the country without the permission of the interim government could provoke clashes and unrest should not be discounted.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)