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15/08/2007 | End to Crisis? PM Backs Snap Polish Elections

Global Insight Staff

Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski has conceded that elections are the only solution to the current government crisis, and he plans to head a minority administration in the interim.

 

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczysnski has indicated that elections will be held in October, in the first sign of concrete action to end the protracted government crisis. The formal dissolution of the ruling coalition is due today.

Implications

Two-thirds of MPs need to back an early motion for parliament to be dissolved, but such a majority is likely to be achieved thanks to the ruling Law and Justice and the main liberal opposition Civic Platform, plus some additional supporters from the opposition.

Outlook

In the meantime, Kaczysnski has dismissed the ministers from the other two coalition parties, leaving the PiS ruling as a minority government. However, the outlook for the budget remains unclear; the PiS will be unable to push through an expansive package without a majority, and the PO is more clearly geared towards euro adoption, meaning that a frugal draft might be required.

Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski has indicated that elections will be called before November, suggesting 21 October as a possible date. It comes as relations between the three-party government, led by Kaczynski’s Law and Justice (PiS), crumble beyond repair, with the ultra-Catholic League of Polish Families (LPR) and the radical agrarian Samoobrona (SO) unreconciled with the PiS in the latest coalition crisis. The recent months have been peppered liberally with scandals, revelations and dismissals, with ministerial turnover increasing; however, economic performance has yet to be affected, with GDP growth forecast at 6.7% in 2007 by the government.

To meet constitutional requirements, at least two-thirds of deputies need to back a motion dissolving parliament, or else a lengthy process to prove that the government cannot function would be required—as was seen in 2005 when former president Aleksander Kwasniewski refused to accept the resignation of then-prime minister Marek Belka to allow early elections, while President Lech Kaczysnki similarly blocked elections in February and March 2006. The president has indicated that he supports a ballot this time round, as has the main opposition, liberal Civic Platform (PO), whose leader Donald Tusk has met in recent days with President Kaczynski. The decision had been becoming increasingly academic, compounded by the threat of a fine against the PiS for misfiling financial statements following the 2005 elections. Repeat elections now would avoid a costly fine. Since the opposition Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) is also in this position, it will make up the numbers required to back the call for early elections.

In the meantime, a minority government will preside in parliament, following a meeting between Kaczysnki and the smaller members of the coalition. The SO had already withdrawn from the government after the developments of recent weeks surrounding the dismissal of its leader Andrzej Lepper from the Agriculture Ministry and deputy prime minister’s post amid an anti-corruption investigation, but it left its ministers at the mercy of Kaczynski. LPR leader Roman Giertych announced on 11 August that all the other parties’ ministers would be dismissed and the coalition, already in tatters, formally dismantled today. Four ministers were dismissed by Kaczysnki in a televised ceremony this morning, and were immediately replaced by PiS members. During the ceremony, the premier confirmed that, “These changes are themselves the result of a change in the political situation, and of the end of the work of the coalition.”

In recent days, a lack of clarity has surrounded Lepper’s dismissal and the consequent decision by Kaczynski to depose Interior Minister Janusz Kaczmarek for allegedly lying to the prime minister over the sting operation organised by the Anti-Corruption Bureau (see Poland: 9 August 2007: Crisis Worsens as Polish Interior Minister Jettisoned). Lepper said on 11 August that it had in fact been Justice Minister Zbigniew Zioboro who had tipped him off—the situation remains unclear, but mudslinging is likely to continue, with Zioboro already denying Lepper’s claims, but Kaczmarek apparently ready to support them. In addition, Lepper maintains that there is taped evidence of the prime minister vowing to discredit members of the coalition and opposition for his own political ends—claims denied by PiS officials, but likely to provide plenty of media fodder in the coming weeks.

Outlook and Implications

The move towards early elections can only be applauded, as a long-overdue acknowledgement that the government has been failing to carry out its representative functions.

Although ordinarily there might be concern at the PiS gaining sole control of the reins of power, as a minority government it is limited in the actions that it can take. Most activity will require the support of other parties, and it seems less likely now that the PiS will be able to secure this from former partners SO and LPR. Therefore, the PiS will be looking to the PO for support in parliament. It is critical that the PO stands firm in the coming weeks as the budget season approaches if it is to maintain its policy outlook on euro adoption.

The PO has a golden opportunity ahead of it. To squander this opportunity would be a betrayal of those who voted for the party in the 2005 elections, and the considerable numbers who continue to support it in polls despite a lacklustre performance in opposition. The outcome of the elections remains hard to predict; since the 2005 elections, polls have consistently swung between majority support for the PO and PiS. The PO was the clear leader going into the 2005 elections but managed to lose to the PiS, largely through complacency. This time, it will seek to target those disaffected with the government, turned away by the toleration of minority groups, the pursuit of former collaborators and the installation of PiS loyalists in official posts, right up to the governor of the central bank. The PiS meanwhile will look to emphasise the living standards of the locals, the continued drop in unemployment (mitigated somewhat by migration levels) and the good performance of the economy, and also how the government has cleaned up in power though the introduction of its controversial vetting procedures (despite the dismissal of key ministers in a string of scandals), how it stood up to the European Union (EU) over Poland’s future role in the bloc, and how it has sought to instil some moral guidance, all supported by conservative voters.

In addition to this main battle, there will be a fight for ground among the smaller parties, but polls indicate that most of these are lacking in support and are in danger of failing to make the parliamentary threshold. Former president Aleksander Kwasniewski could be preparing a comeback, following the creation of a civic Movement for Democracy. He will hope to capitalise on disenchantment with the political scene, arguing that the PiS attempts to clean up politics have not worked, and that the politicians’ navel-gazing is failing to address the civic concerns of citizens. This threat might drive the PO and PiS back towards another attempt at a joint government, which it failed to create following the 2005 elections. Kwasniewski appears to have decided to eschew his sole association with the left wing, after the fall from grace of former party SLD in the previous government. The SLD is unlikely to make a radical comeback, but any electoral race will be messy, with the parties only recently having realised that preparation for a ballot was necessary. Global Insight will retain the current Political Risk Rating for Poland in the coming weeks, with the move towards elections seen as a positive step. Pending the results of the elections, which could see a similarly split vote as occurred in 2005, the rating may be upgraded if it is clear that a new, more stable government can be inaugurated. 
 

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 



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