Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
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Economia y Finanzas  
 
11/12/2006 | A Better-Than-Expected U.S. Employment Report

Global Insight Staff

The economy added an additional 132,000 jobs in November, and the estimates for September and October were revised up a net 42,000. The unemployment rate inched up 0.1 point, to 4.5%. Labor markets remain tight, and the economy is continuing to generate jobs despite the housing downturn.

 

  • Employment rose 132,000 in November, somewhat higher than the consensus estimate.
  • September's gain was revised up by 55,000, to 203,000; October's gain was lowered by 13,000, to 79,000.
  • The unemployment rate inched up 0.1 point in November, to 4.5%.; in October, the rate had fallen to its lowest level in five years.
  • Construction employment took another hit, falling 29,000, after dropping 24,000 in October. About half the losses were in residential construction; nonresidential construction and heavy and engineering construction also both posted losses.
  • Manufacturing shed another 15,000 jobs. Motor vehicles and parts, wood products and furniture, and related products accounted for most of the drop. The losses in wood products and furniture are related to the housing downturn.
  • Professional and business services added another 43,000 workers, while healthcare added 28,000. Combined, these two segments have added 735,000 jobs in the past 12 months.
  • The average workweek remained at 33.9 hours; aggregate hours rose 0.1%
  • Average hourly earnings rose 3 cents.

November's report was better than we anticipated—but our expectations were scaled back because of the housing and auto downturns. Total employment rose by 132,000, a bit higher than the 100,000 consensus estimate reported by Bloomberg (we expected a 90,000 increase). Moreover, the job gains for the previous two months were revised up a net 42,000. The unemployment rate, as expected, inched up 0.1 point, to 4.5%. Wages increased 0.2%, after rising 0.4% in October.

As expected, the manufacturing and construction sectors continued to shed jobs. The construction losses are worrisome because they included losses in both the nonresidential and heavy and civil engineering segments. According to the Census Bureau, nominal spending on nonresidential construction, which had been on a tear until recently, fell in September and October. A downturn in this segment could not come at a worst time for the economy, which we estimate is growing a bit above a 1% annual rate.

The November employment report reinforces other data showing that outside of housing and manufacturing, the economy is holding up well. The report also indicates that the labor market remains tight, and that the economy is continuing to generate the jobs needed to perpetuate growth, while absorbing the shock from housing.

by Patrick Newport

www.globalinsight.com

www.wmrc.com

 

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 



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