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04/10/2007 | Coming In from the Cold? Korean Peace Pact Agreed, Nuclear Disablement by Year-End

Global Insight Staff

North Korea today agreed to sign a formal peace treaty with South Korea at a historic summit, at which its agreement to the disablement of its nuclear programme by year-end was also announced.

 

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

The agreement to sign the peace treaty and the progress made regarding nuclear disablement are both landmark developments that have raised hopes that peace can restored in the Korean peninsula, with the two countries separated by one of the last cold war frontiers in the world today.

Implications

The summit has made substantial progress, notably regarding the pursuit of a peace treaty between the two sides. It is as such set to carve out a positive legacy for South Korean president Roh Moo-hyun before he steps down in February next year, and is likely to aid in creating a firmer electoral platform for South Korea's leftist parties in the presidential elections.

Outlook

The nuclear disablement roadmap paves the way for the implementation of the third and final disarmament phase in early 2008, but it remains unclear how the final dismantlement of Yongbyon should taken place, including the process of destroying weapons-grade plutonium already accumulated by North Korea. The question at the heart of the matter remains how committed North Korea will be to making its disarmament irreversible as its "military first" (sorgum) and self-reliance (juche) strategies hinge upon the possession of a nuclear deterrent to a great degree.

Peace Pursuits on the Korean Peninsula

The political leaders of North and South Korea today inked an agreement to pave the way for the conclusion of a formal peace treaty between the two countries after agreeing to a roadmap regarding the disablement of North Korea's nuclear programme by the end of this year, raising hopes that the reclusive Stalinist state can be brought in from the cold. The commitment to the peace pact formed part of an eight-point plan unveiled at the end of the historic three-day inter-Korean summit held in Pyongyang, which saw South Korean president Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean political leader Kim Jong-il come face to face in a rare such encounter. The summit is the second of its kind to be held between the two Koreas, coming seven years after former South Korean president Kim Dae-jung attended a landmark summit with Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang. This ushered in an era of rapprochement between the neighbouring countries that still technically remain at war with each other, with no official peace treaty having been concluded to end the Korean War of 1950-53. Following the 2000 summit, the two sides commenced joint economic projects as well as family reunions of those separated in the partitioning of the Korean peninsula in 1953.

A Substantial Summit

The inter-Korean summit is the culmination of president Roh’s engagement policy with the North, and has as expected focused on ending the state of war on the Korean peninsula and furthering economic co-operation between the two countries, yielding more substantial progress than first expected . Wrapping up the three-day summit, the two political leaders unveiled an eight-point plan focused on security, defence, and economic co-operation. The two Koreas reiterated the urgency of concluding a formal peace pact and for the expansion of "economic co-operation for balanced development and co-prosperity".

Eight-Point Plan Unveiled at End of Inter-Korean Summit

  • Three- or four-party summit to be called to conclude permanent peace treaty on the Korean Peninsula.
  • Expansion of inter-Korean investment and economic co-operation projects.
  • The holding of regular summit talks to discuss various pending issues.
  • Agreement on pursuing joint efforts to back six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear disarmament.
  • The holding of defence ministerial talks in November to hold discussions on establishing peace in the West Sea.
  • The construction of a joint shipbuilding complex in Nampo, close to North Korea's capital of Pyongyang.
  • Permissions for the South Korean Olympic delegation to Travel via Pyongyang to Beijing in 2008.
  • The opening of a direct air route between Seoul and North Korea.s Mount Paektu.

Most importantly, the eight-point plan calls for a three- or four-party summit to put in place a permanent peace treaty on the Korean peninsula. With the Korean war having ended with a ceasefire rather than a peace treaty signed by North Korea, the United States and China but excluding South Korea, the finalisation of a formal peace pact would require all the original signatories to be part of such a process. Regarding security matters, the two sides also agreed to establish a special peace zone in the surrounding areas of Haeju in North Korea as well as co-operating towards putting in place "joint fishing areas, peace waters, a special economic zone, and joint development of the estuary of the Han River," according to the terms of the deal. The disputed border of the west sea linked to the South Korean capital of Seoul via the Han River has long been a flashpoint for the two sides, with fatal naval skirmished having taken place there. The border known as the Northern Limit Line (NLL) was drawn by the U.S.-led UN Command at the end of the Korean War, but the Pyongyang regime holds that it should be redrawn further south. In the area of economic co-operation and investment, the South is expected to invest heavily in the North via various projects, in addition to the Kaesong industrial project and Mount Geumgang, making President Roh vulnerable to claims that the South is contributing too much compared with the North. However, no details were given regarding the so-called Marshall Plan that the Roh administration has been planning to extend to the North.

The Nuclear Disablement Deal

Ahead of the the conclusion of the summit, it was announced that North Korea will agree to disable ifs main Yongbyon nuclear reactor and provide a full account of its nuclear activities by 31 December. The timetable pushed by the United States was endorsed by all of the six-party nations—China, the United States, the two Koreas, Japan and Russia—after they suspended negotiations last weekend to allow their respective governments to scrutinise the roadmap put in place .  The agreement released yesterday by China—hosting the talks—calls on North Korea to disable Yongbyon along with two other reactors at the same complex by 31 December after they were shut down in July. The United States is set to play a key supervisory role on the ground, with U.S. experts planning to enter North Korea in two weeks to commence the disablement process. Meanwhile, North Korea has also agreed to provide by the same deadline a "complete and correct declaration" of all of its current nuclear programmes, while also committing to not transfer nuclear materials, expertise, or technology. In return for such efforts, the United States has promised to improve bilateral relations, moving the two towards a normalisation of diplomatic ties. North Korea has in this context called on the United States to remove it from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. The latter has agreed that such a move will depend on its progress, but North Korea holds that a timetable has also been put in place for such proceedings. Meanwhile, North Korea and Japan are also to engage in "sincere efforts" to normalise bilateral relations—a process that continues to be marred by disputes over North Korea’s abduction of Japanese nationals in the 1970s and 1980s, which Japan has demanded be settled before it fully supports the nuclear disarmament agreement. North Korea is set to receive a total of one million tonnes of heavy fuel oil in return for its disarmament, with some 100,000 having already been delivered from South Korea and China, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP). The United States last week approved US$25 million for its heavy fuel oil contribution, with Russia being set to deliver the following batch. However, Japan continues to refuse to contribute until the issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s has been resolved.

Outlook and Implications

The peace deal and the progress made on the nuclear disablement plan are both landmark developments. The historic inter-Korean summit has proven to make more substantial progress than was first expected and is more detailed and comprehensive than that reached at the first such summit in 2000. It has been heralded as opening a new chapter in inter-Korean relations and has notably made headway on the long-standing issue of concluding a peace deal between the two countries some 54 years after the Korean War came to an end, although this will require a further multilateral summit. It is as such set to carve out a positive legacy for President Roh before he steps down in February next year and is likely to aid in creating a firmer electoral platform for the country’s leftist parties, which have so far failed to become a convincing political force in the run-up to the December presidential elections. By providing a momentum for further reconciliatory efforts, it could also create a fait accompli for the popular opposition, Grand National Party (GNP); if it expectedly wins the December presidential elections, public support for such an initiative may force it to take a more Pyongyang-friendly stance. The GNP is, however, likely to counter Roh’s success with criticism that he has offered too many naïve concessions to cement his political legacy. The summit has also yielded gains for the North Korean leadership. Besides Kim Jong-il’s interest in putting in place the foundation for having a pro-Pyongyang candidate ascend to power after the South Korean elections, he has secured massive investment and aid for his impoverished country, which will help prop up his unpopular regime.

As for the nuclear disablement roadmap hammered out, it is considered a landmark step that if successful will pave the way for the implementation of the third and final disarmament phase in early 2008. This would require North Korea to give up all its fissile material and nuclear weapons, and is considered a complicated and arduous task. However, a number of problems continue to dog the prospects of a successful and comprehensive denuclearisation process. The United States has long had suspicions that North Korea may have maintained a secret uranium enrichment programme, and it indeed remains questionable whether the Pyongyang regime would declare it under the roadmap agreement. Last but not least, it remains unclear how the final dismantlement of Yongbyon should taken place, including the process of destroying weapons-grade plutonium already accumulated by North Korea. The question at the heart of the matter is as such how committed North Korea will be to making its disarmament irreversible, as its "military first" (sorgum) and self-reliance (juche) strategies hinge upon the possession of a nuclear deterrent to a great degree. It is likely that the regime will make additional demands after having extracted substantial economic concessions, but the disablement of Yongbyon is nevertheless a major step along the way, as the main nuclear reactor will take some 12 months to restart once disabled. 
 

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


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