Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Nearly two nerve-wracking weeks for Russian top officials finished last night when President Putin eventually announced the composition of the new government.

Implications

Only three ministers are out, and the general balance of powers is preserved, with liberals slightly strengthened.

Outlook

The cabinet reshuffle proved that the replacement of Mikhail Fradkov with Viktor Zubkov as prime minister on 13 September was principally an individual swap rather than a major overhaul at the top of Russia's executive. The new old cabinet is a team of effective executives and technocrats, and continuity in policy is therefore on cards for certain.

Yesterday's change in the Russian cabinet amounted to the replacement of three ministers, the establishment of another vice prime-minister position and the creation of two new committees. The ministers to go were the liberal German Gref of the Ministry for Economic Development, predictably taking the blame for Russia's delayed accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the principal scapegoat for the failures in social security provisions Mikhail Zurabov of the Heath and Social Development Ministry, and rather obscure Victor Jakovlev of the Ministry for Regional Development. Their replacements were not of any major policy or ideological alternative: Gref's shoes are filled by his former deputy and fellow liberal Elvira Nabiullina; Zurabov's seat has gone to experienced functionary Tatiana Golikova, and Jakovlev's departure creates room for the return of Dmitry Kozak, Putin's able aide, from the position of presidential representative in Southern Russia. Another change of note is the elevation of Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin to the position of deputy prime minister, to be combined with the ministerial duties. Kudrin is a committed liberal who has an impressive track of sound financial management, and his promotion improves the balance between liberals and siloviki (coercive bodies), of which the latter recently went on the rise. There are also minor changes in the departmental structure, with the strengthening of the Regional Development Ministry at the expense of the Ministry for Economic Development, and the creation of a youth committee and a fisheries committee, most likely to reflect Putin's personal interest in the issues and to provide a venue for promotion of promising officials. The preservations of seats against the expectations of dismissal are also of note, and of those the retention of Victor Khristenko in the ministerial seat for Industry and Energy is most remarkable.

Outlook and Implications

The major lesson of the reshuffle has little to do with the actual policy development of Russia. Rather, it indicated once again the penchant of President Putin for drama, his disregard for individuals and his inclination to keep things in a closed circle, even of the family kind. The Cabinet meeting that led to announcement was held well after dusk, with the observers and ministers themselves left to guessing about its venue and actual taking place until within an hour of the action commencing. Putin, it seems, did everything to show that the reshuffle was not important, treating the ministers with an attitude bordering on polite disrespect. At the same time he created much suspense over his intentions and actions, demonstrating his near-royal powers and authority. Putin's characteristic inclination to trust people from inner circles transpired as well, with him putting a husband and wife, Khristenko and Golikova, into the cabinet, while also keeping father and son-in law, Prime Minister Zubkov and Defence Minister Serdiukov, in one team.

The cabinet reshuffle proved a mere technical readjustment of no substantial importance for the Russian policy. This is rather expected given the challenges of parliamentary and presidential elections ahead. Rather, it reasserted yet again the unlimited authority that President Putin enjoys in Russia. The drama season in Russia is continuing, and we can expect further surprising shows from the inventive, intricate, headstrong and unbounded director, Vladimir Putin.