With the Independent Election Commission (IEC) scrapping the run-off polls after Hamid Karzai's main challenger Abdullah Abdullah withdrew from the process, it is now clear that Karzai will remain the country's president for the next five years. What is much less clear, however, is the way in which government formation will now take place and what will be Abdullah's role in this process. Whatever the way forward, it is evident that the election process in Afghanistan has bestowed Karzai with little of the kind of legitimacy that the international community would have hoped for, and this is set to complicate efforts to deal with Afghanistan's myriad problems.

The Issue of Legitimacy

Whatever the way forward with regard to the electoral process, lack of legitimacy will be a major issue for the Karzai government to deal with. This already became evident before the first round of presidential elections on 20 August, as popularity polls indicated that most of Afghanistan's populace have become (or remained) disenchanted by a central government that has shown little presence in most parts of the country and has gained a reputation for its inability to reign in corruption and rampant insecurity. The electoral process evidently worsened the prospects for Karzai to increase his government's legitimacy, contrary to what was hoped by the international community. The flawed process, due not only to widespread insecurity due to a Taliban that have over the past two years staged a remarkable comeback, but also due to serious flaws in the country's electoral laws and the conduct of the elections that all have led to widespread fraud and low voter turnout. With or without run-off polls, the announcement of Abdullah's withdrawal from the electoral process due to his view that a fair and transparent run-off poll would not be possible, as predicted by IHS Global Insight last Tuesday, further strips Karzai of legitimacy; it was Karzai who refused to adhere to Abdullah's demands of sacking senior officials from the IEC that were held accountable for much of the fraud that took place during the first-round election. Bearing this in mind, many among the international community are now pushing Karzai and Abdullah to strike a deal for a national unity government to reap the largest-possible degree of legitimacy given the situation; but given that the terms under which such a deal could materialise remain unclear, and considering the gravity of the challenges that will have to be dealt with, it is difficult to see how any such deal could grant Afghanistan's government the kind of legitimacy needed for these daunting tasks.

Implications for International Community

Since Karzai was seen by many as the winning candidate already, with Abdullah having been granted little chance of winning the run-off polls, some have sighed with relief at learning about his retreat. On the most positive note, his withdrawal means that the international community now knows that Karzai will be their partner in the Afghan government, and the IEC's decision is likely to make the international community's deliberations on a new Afghanistan strategy that much easier. However, the low degree of credibility of the Afghan government could still be a major stumbling block for implementing these strategies if finally adopted. Should Karzai indeed form the government with his running mates of former warlords and without the participation of Abdullah, this would suggest a status-quo situation in which corruption and illegitimacy are likely to frustrate many an effort to move forward. But even with Karzai and Abdullah striking a deal for a national unity government there is no guarantee that some of the all-important reforms will be made. Thus, with U.S. president Barack Obama's administration now expected to finalise a new Afghanistan strategy within the course of this month, it remains to be seen how workable this will be in practice. Adding to the overall uncertainty surrounding the charting of strategies for Afghanistan is a series of resignations of foreign officials in Afghanistan who have expressed their dissatisfaction about the way things have been going.

Challenges Daunting

Afghanistan's problems were many and varied before the first round of the election, but have arguably increased in the context of political uncertainty and disarray in the international community's efforts to deal with Afghanistan. Adding to this is that the fact that Karzai has moved into the electoral process virtually without a poll manifesto, meaning that it is highly unclear how he intends to move about to tackle the numerous problems. The Taliban have staged a remarkable come-back over the past two years and have staged hundreds of attacks against a variety of targets over the past months, inflicting the heaviest casualty numbers upon coalition troops since operations began in late 2001. Karzai has indicated his intention to invite the Taliban to participate in a loya jirga, although the Taliban have consistently refused such offers and it is furthermore unclear how this could be justified as Afghanistan's constitution puts forward a fixed set-up of such a gathering which at any rate does not include insurgent groups. Rampant corruption has become something of a trademark for the previous Karzai administration, in large part due to his inclination to trade loyalty for political office. Indeed, the fact that he has already secured the support of a number of former warlords and regional commanders suggests that he will have to continue to entertain them, risking that no progress against corruption will be made, or else lose their support and effectively jurisdiction over even more parts of Afghanistan. A deal with Abdullah could improve the outlook in this respect to some degree, although it is unlikely that this would change the situation significantly. A further major problem is flawed state institutions and constitutional problems, with a too-strong presidency and a very weak parliament. Interlinked with and exacerbating these issues are the problems of some of the worst human development indicators in the world, the fact that Afghanistan produces some 92 per cent of the world's opium, and ethnic, tribal and religious cleavages that have spurred conflict over the past centuries. A further accelerator of conflict is the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan that may flush many of the militants that sought a save haven there to make a return to Afghanistan.

Outlook and Implications

The IEC's decision has defused much of the uncertainty surrounding the Afghan presidential election that has thrown the country into political chaos and arguably worsened the security situation there. It essentially now provides the international community with a partner to work with and this is certainly good news. However, given the immensity of the challenges ahead and the probable weak structure of the future Karzai administration, as well as the difficult U.S.-Karzai relationship in recent months, it remains rather unlikely that much headway will be made with regard to Afghanistan's multiple problems. It essentially now remains to be seen what the next few days bring, as staffing issues and the United States' expected new Afghan strategy are likely to fill the headlines on Afghanistan in the near future.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)