Significance: Ecuador's left-wing president Rafael Correa faces his worst governability crisis since he first took office in 2007, after lower-rank police forces went on the rampage in response to a controversial public-service bill they claim will cut bonuses and curtail promotions.

Implications: The loyalty of the armed forces and international backing for the Correa administration has prevented a breakdown of the constitutional order. However, the incident that President Correa claims was an attempted military coup will accelerate the deterioration of the economic and political environment, which has already been suffering under a series of challenges from outside the legislative arena and a near political deadlock within the National Assembly.

Outlook: Although police unrest is expected to come under control over the short term, Ecuador is heading for tumultuous times, with an increasing probability that President Correa might dissolve parliament and call an early presidential election in an effort to overcome the current political crisis.

Police Riots

One of Latin America's historically most unstable countries was teetering yesterday on the brink of another breakdown of constitutional order, after police riots sparked by the Quito police quickly spread across the country. Mutinous police blocked roads in several provinces, forcing, inter alia, the airport in Quito to temporarily shut down. The riots were a response to a controversial public-service law, known as Losep, which police officials say will cut seniority bonuses and slow promotions.

The protests took a dramatic turn when rioting police assaulted President Rafael Correa at a Quito barrack, following an ill-fated attempt by the president and his interior minister, Gustavo Jalkh, to placate protesters. The president, who is still recovering from knee surgery, subsequently sought refuge in a police hospital, where he remained for 11 hours. The stand-off ended after a loyal army unit and special police forced their way into the hospital and freed the president, with shooting between soldiers and police leading to two deaths and 37 injured. Rioting police forces also yesterday also occupied the National Assembly, even though it remained unclear whether they sought to gain control over the legislature.

International Backing

In a region that is still shivering from the 2009 military coup in Honduras, news of the police force rioting and marching on Congress set alarm bells ringing. The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR)—a fledgling co-operation body aimed at establishing itself as the prime forum for regional conflict solution—swiftly called an emergency presidential meeting. The gathering in Buenos Aires ended in a declaration backing president Correa and denouncing the unrest as an "attempted coup". The president also called on those involved in the incident to be tried and convicted, and announced the dispatch of a mission of UNASUR foreign ministers to the country later that day. The regional backing was flanked by a statement from the U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton, who expressed "full support for President Rafael Correa, and for the institutions of democratic government" in Ecuador.

Outlook and Implication

President Correa was quick to pin the blame for the uprising on sections of the police, armed forces, and parts of the opposition. In particular, Correa alleged that Lucio Gutiérrez, a former soldier and former president, was behind what he claims has been an attempted coup d'état against his administration. Speaking from Brasilia yesterday, Gutiérrez, whose presidential term ended in an impeachment amid popular unrest in 2005, denied the accusations. President Correa has repeatedly accused Gutiérrez of being implicated in different destabilization plots against him .However, there is currently relatively little evidence to suggest that yesterday's unrest was more than a severe outbreak of insubordination among lower-rank police officers. In particular, the military high command—appointed by Correa in April—quickly made clear that the armed forces were loyal to the president, while Jaime Nebot, the opposition mayor of Guayaquil, also came out strongly in support of democratic institutions.

The short-term focus for the government will now be on restoring public order fully, after the refusal of front-line police forces to do their work has created something of a public-security vacuum, with local press reporting incidents of looting in both Quito and Guayaquil. Another short-term priority will be on re-imposing discipline among the police forces. Yesterday's early resignation of General Freddy Martinez, the commander of the police forces, suggests that the police forces may be heading for a wider leadership shakeup. Although President Correa yesterday vowed not to back down over the provisions in Losep that sparked the conflict, there might, in practice, be some scope for negotiations, in particular after General Ernesto González, the chief of the military Joint Command, yesterday "emphatically" requested the measure to be revised.