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Economia y Finanzas  
 
08/01/2007 | Key U.S. Data Releases and Events

Global Insight Staff

This week's key release will be December's retail sales report.

 

The key release last week was the "rock-solid" December employment report, which showed the economy adding 167,000 jobs in December (consensus was 110,000), unemployment remaining at 4.5%, and hourly earnings growing 0.5% (consensus was 0.3%). In addition to this, October's and November's employment estimates were revised up. November's construction report showed that housing remains a large drag on growth. According to the report, however, nonresidential construction rebounded smartly from a September dip, implying that businesses are not yet scaling back their expansion plans, despite the slowdown in the economy.

This week's key release will be December's retail sales report (Jan. 12), which will tell us how retailers fared over the Christmas season. The November trade balance report (Jan. 10) might play a pivotal role in determining fourth-quarter GDP growth.

KEY U.S. DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK

Wednesday, January 10 – Trade Balance (Nov.)

Global Insight: -$60.6 Bil.
Consensus: -$59.5 Bil.
Last Actual: -$58.9 Bil. (Oct.)

What to Look For

  • The trade deficit to widen further to $60.6 billion in November, from the surprisingly low $58.9 billion in October, with import volumes likely to bounce higher after two successive monthly declines.

Implications

We still believe that the deficit has peaked, and will trend lower in 2007. Net exports will boost real GDP growth by about 1 percentage point in the fourth quarter, its biggest contribution since the fourth quarter of 1996.

Friday, January 12 – Retail Sales (Dec.)

Total

Global Insight: +0.7%
Consensus: +0.7%
Last Actual: +1.0% (Nov.)

Less Autos

Global Insight: +0.4%
Consensus: +0.5%
Last Actual: +1.1% (Nov.)

What to Look For

  • Sales up a respectable 0.7%, powered by a rebound in gasoline prices and a pickup in light-vehicle sales.
  • Mixed results, with continued strength in electronics and luxury goods offset by pronounced weakness in cold-weather apparel and gear.
  • Excluding auto dealers and gasoline stations, we expect a 0.1% sales increase in December, after a 0.9% surge in November.

Implications

We expect real consumption growth to come in at 4.1% in the fourth quarter, up from 2.9% in the third quarter, with real spending on durables and nondurables up more than 5%.

by Patrick Newport and Nigel Gault

www.globalinsight.com

www.wmrc.com

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 



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ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
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