Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The British victim and five other holidaymakers were attacked as they visited a Roman amphitheatre in the heart of the Jordanian capital, Amman; the authorities described the killing as a "terror" attack.

Implications

Jordan has had its fair share of such attacks—the most deadly and recent of which was in November 2005, when three simultaneous bombings targeted some of Amman's top hotels. Officials have contended that since security across the country was boosted following those bombings, provisions remain sufficient not to warrant a further strengthening of security measures.

Outlook

Although the latest incident will cause short-term ruptures to Jordan's crucial tourism industry, the country is not expected to experience any long-term damage, given evidence that it has weathered previous attacks fairly well. An important concern for the authorities, however, will be to convince the relatively large number of tourists that yesterday's gun attack was indeed "isolated", as any evidence that the perpetrator was associated with an anti-Western group may prove costly to Jordan's image as a tourist haven.

Isolated Attack?

Police identified the assailant as Nabil Ahmed, a Jordanian of Palestinian origin from the town of Zarqa—infamously the home town of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the now-deceased head of al-Qaida in Iraq. Ahmed is believed to have shot the six tourists in the back, killing the Briton and wounding the remainder. Two British women, a Dutch man, and two female tourists from Australia and New Zealand were identified as the other victims. According to Prime Minister Marouf Bakheet, Ahmed had a "police record"; the premier was unwilling to elaborate on any details, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports. Police officials have refused to comment on Ahmed's motives, repeating that that gunman was "alone" when he carried out his attack. Speaking to reporters, Interior Minister Eid Fayez reiterated the official line that Ahmed apparently acted alone but emphasised that the gunman "was determined to kill".

An emphasis on communicating that Ahmed had "no ties" to any known anti-Western group has been crucial for the government and Jordan’s image. The kingdom is certainly famous for its Roman ruins and attracts hundreds of thousands of tourists throughout the year. The country has long advocated its peacefulness while many regional peers experience war and unrest. Hence, there was little surprise when government spokesman Nasser Jawdeh did his utmost to explain that yesterday's tourist attack was indeed an isolated incident: "The investigation has shown that the criminal attack was the sole act carried out by Nabil Ahmed...who had no ties to any armed group inside or outside Jordan...This is reassuring".

While expressing condolences to the family of the British victim, government officials also spelt out Jordan's efforts towards countering terrorism in the country. Large numbers of riot and counter-terrorism police were deployed across Amman immediately after the killing. However, the authorities refused to raise the security level, citing improved security following last November's bombings. Fayez sought to reassure visitors that they had nothing to fear. He added that "security measures were in place in the area because it is a tourist area...and we have no plans to take any other measures", while other officials said that the attack would not deter Jordan from "fighting and combating terror".

Outlook and Implications

As was to be expected after an incident of this sort, foreign embassies have advised their nationals to exercise extreme caution in the Jordanian capital, with the French embassy in particular urging its citizens to avoid Amman city centre. The British embassy has warned of a "high threat from terrorism in Jordan". Yesterday's killing will not necessarily impact on Jordan's thriving tourism industry, so long as the authorities succeed in convincing visitors that the attack was isolated. Given the unrest across the wider region, however, and Jordan's pivotal role not only as "peace broker" but as a magnet for insurgent anger (owing to its peace treaty with Israel and close alliance to the United States), further attacks against foreigners cannot be ruled out. Although the authorities have urged foreigners to continue their holidays, the following hours and days will reveal the extent to which the Jordanian government and the country has retained the confidence of its prized visitors.

Raul Dary

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Lexington, MA 02421, USA
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raul.dary@globalinsight.com

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