The expected slowdown of the Mexican economy materialised in the third quarter of 2010 as GDP expanded only 0.7%, down from a revised 2.3% in the second quarter, with deceleration of industrial production in the United States the main driver.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mexican GDP
increased 0.7% in the third quarter of 2010 as compared to April–June.
Implications: Growth in the third quarter represents a
clear deceleration from the 2.3% rate posted in the second quarter of 2010, and
is the result of the slowdown in the U.S. economy since the Mexican economy
depends heavily on its northern neighbour.
Outlook: In the very short term—the fourth quarter of
this year and the first quarter of 2011—Mexico's economy will grow at a
sluggish pace, following the U.S. business cycle, and will accelerate later in
2011, although poor oil production will further constrain economic activity.
The National Statistics Office (INEGI) reports that
seasonally adjusted GDP expanded 0.7% in the third quarter of the year as
compared to the previous quarter; raw data show that GDP increased 5.3% in
July–September when compared to the same period in 2009. The quarter-on-quarter
(q/q) comparison shows a marked deceleration from the second quarter, when GDP
expanded 2.3%, and also signals the return of moderate growth and the end of
the bounce-back from the 2009 recession. While Mexico's output rate has not yet
returned to pre-crisis levels, the rate of expansion has moderated because the
U.S. economy is also moving at a slower speed. The United States is not only
the destination of 80% of Mexican exports, but also the source of a sizeable
amount of workers' remittances and tourism revenues.
INEGI reports that the service sector grew 1.8%, while
the industrial sector expanded 0.9% and primary activities such as agriculture
and fishing increased 1.5%. All these numbers refer to q/q growth on seasonally
adjusted data; clearly it is not possible for each and every sector to grow faster
than the whole economy (for a note on statistical discrepancy .These figures
are preliminary and will be revised, as was the case with the second-quarter
growth rate, which was initially reported as 3.2% and has just been revised
down to 2.3%; this revision was accurately predicted when data were published.
Despite the fuzzy figures, the relative numbers paint a picture with industry
(the sector that depends heavily on demand from the United States) running at
the lowest pace while services, which are relatively more closely linked to
domestic demand, expanding more rapidly. In the recovery from the 2009
recession, domestic consumption was growing at a slower pace, and while there
has been more dynamism in July–September, at IHS Global Insight we expect that
in the upcoming quarters the service sector will decelerate in tune with lower
industrial production, caused, in part, by lower external demand.
The monthly index for economic activity (IGAE), a very
good proxy for GDP, posted positive growth in July and August but had already
declined in September, signalling that Mexico is already moving to sluggish
growth.
Retail Sales Flat in September
Mexican real retail sales increased by 4.1% during
September compared with September 2009 (year-on-year—y/y), according to INEGI.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, however, retail sales were down 0.08% compared
with the previous month. In a different but related data release, INEGI made it
known that income in the service sector (ISS) grew 4.9% y/y in September, up
from 3.8% y/y in August but still below pre-crisis levels: it is 3.0% below
September 2008. This indicator purports to capture sales of private
non-financial services. On a seasonally adjusted basis, ISS expanded 0.6% as
compared to August, the seventh consecutive month of positive growth. Retail
sales data confirm the aforementioned deceleration of the economy and show that
the domestic market is already suffering from the slowdown in the industrial
sector. Data on income in the service sector still show some dynamism, but this
will vanish shortly as it is very difficult for any sector in the Mexican
economy to decouple itself from the U.S. business cycle.
Outlook and Implications
Mexico's business cycle is linked to that of the U.S.
economy, and once again it will suffer from this dependency as the largest
economy of the world is set for sluggish growth in the next two quarters, and
just moderate growth for the full year 2011. Another constrain to growth in
Mexico will be the decline in oil production. This hurts not only exports and
external accounts, but also public finances; expected higher oil prices will
partially compensate for the decline in production but the government—which
relies on the oil sector for almost one third of its revenue—will still not have
the capacity to increase spending and much-needed infrastructure. In the last
quarter of 2010, the Mexican economy will be flat with respect to
July–September, bringing growth for the full year to 5.1%. For 2011, IHS Global
Insight has revised its forecast downward, and GDP growth is now expected to
grow 2.9%.
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01/08/2009| |
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29/07/2009| |
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27/07/2009| |
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27/07/2009| |
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25/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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28/03/2009| |
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15/03/2009| |
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15/03/2009| |
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18/01/2009| |
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10/01/2009| |
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06/01/2009| |
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05/01/2009| |
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02/01/2009| |
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24/12/2008| |
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24/12/2008| |
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24/12/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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03/10/2008| |
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24/09/2008| |
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17/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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13/05/2008| |
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12/05/2008| |
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10/05/2008| |
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02/05/2008| |
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27/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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06/04/2008| |
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26/03/2008| |
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20/03/2008| |
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13/03/2008| |
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10/03/2008| |
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07/03/2008| |
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18/02/2008| |
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01/02/2008| |
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21/12/2007| |
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08/12/2007| |
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02/11/2007| |
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30/10/2007| |
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27/10/2007| |
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25/10/2007| |
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20/10/2007| |
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04/10/2007| |
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28/09/2007| |
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28/09/2007| |
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