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11/12/2006 | Key U.S. Data Releases and Events

Global Insight Staff

Economic indicators next week are not expected to provide much additional focus to the ambiguity in the current economic outlook. All told, the economic indicators are shaping up to be somewhat supportive of the fixed income markets, barring a surprise from the FOMC meeting on December 12.

 

Economic indicators next week are not expected to provide much additional focus to the ambiguity in the current economic outlook. A positive report on Tuesday showing a second consecutive reduction in the trade deficit in October may provide a little bit of fizz for the markets early in the week, and a substantial year-over-year reduction in the November federal budget deficit may provide an additional fillip to prices in the Treasury markets. But November retail sales on Wednesday and industrial production on Friday will report very feeble blips on the economic EKG, reinforcing the picture of an economy struggling to keep its head above water. Capping the week off, we expect to see a relatively favorable 0.1% November gain in core prices.

On Tuesday afternoon, the market will rivet its attention on the press release following the FOMC meeting. We expect no change in policy and a statement close to a carbon copy of the one from October 25. While the Federal Reserve is expected to say that the economy seems likely to keep expanding at a moderate pace, one item to look for is any recognition of emerging downside risk to the Fed's outlook for moderate growth in 2007. All told, the economic indicators are shaping up to be somewhat supportive of the fixed income markets, barring a surprise from the FOMC meeting on December 12.

KEY U.S. DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK

Tuesday, December 12 – Trade Balance (Oct.)

Global Insight: -$61.3 Bil.
Consensus: -$63.7 Bil.
Last Actual: -$64.3 Bil. (Sep.)

What to Look For

  • Deficit is expected to shrink to $61.3 billion in October, from $64.3 billion in September, the second sharp narrowing in succession.
  • Lower oil imports (both price and volume) are the key to the decline in the deficit.

Implications

The second consecutive decline in the deficit will be good news for growth in the fourth quarter, as well as for the U.S. balance of payments. It should provide some relief for the beleaguered dollar, which has taken a big hit recently due to the deteriorating near-term outlook for the U.S. economy.

Tuesday, December 12 – FOMC Rate Decision

Global Insight: 5.25%
Consensus: 5.25%
Last Actual: 5.25%

What to Look For

  • The FOMC is expected to vote to keep the federal funds rate unchanged.
  • The voting pattern is expected to be the same as the last meeting, with a likely dissent from Richmond Federal Reserve president Lacker.

Implications

The press statement will be very short, with language very similar to the press release from October 25. The FOMC will likely state that while core inflation is still tracking a little higher than the Fed's comfort zone, and labor markets seem tight, inflation pressures should moderate over time. In addition, the Fed is expected to say that the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace. One item to look for is any kind of recognition of an emerging downside risk to the Fed's outlook for moderate growth in 2007. Recent facts on the state of economy point in this direction, but it is likely too early for the Fed to incorporate this type of language in a press statement, reserving that option instead for the end of January 2007.

Wednesday, December 13 – Retail Sales (Nov.)

Total:

Global Insight: 0.0%
Consensus: +0.1%
Last Actual: -0.4% (Oct.)

Less Autos:

Global Insight: +0.1%
Consensus: +0.3%
Last Actual: -0.4% (Oct.)

What to Look For

  • Retail sales were flat—reflecting consumer caution in the face of a deteriorating housing market.
  • Light-vehicle sales declined and chain store sales were disappointing.

Implications

Although better results are expected in December, the holiday shopping season is likely to be mediocre for retailers. And judging from the early-December decline in consumer confidence and vehicle-buying attitudes, vehicle sales are unlikely to see much of a pickup either. Nevertheless, real consumption growth should come in at 2.7% during the fourth quarter, down a couple of notches from 2.9% in the third quarter, as declines in overall price levels are expected to boost measured real spending. It just won't "feel" like much is happening on the spending front.

Friday, December 15 – Consumer Price Index (Nov.)

Total:

Global Insight: +0.1%
Consensus: +0.2%
Last Actual: -0.5% (Oct.)

Core:

Global Insight: +0.1%
Consensus: +0.2%
Last Actual: +0.1% (Oct.)

What to Look For

  • Consumer prices to rise 0.1%.
  • Look for continued declines in gasoline and other energy prices, but they will be slight by comparison to recent months and will be partially offset by continued strength in food prices.
  • Core inflation to register 0.1% for the second straight month.

Implications

Consumer price inflation is gradually unwinding, in line with the Federal Reserve's outlook. With growth expected to track below potential for several more quarters, pressure on prices should continue to ease. By the second quarter of 2007, this should provide a window for the Fed to ease off the monetary brakes by reducing the federal funds rate.

Friday, December 15 – Industrial Production (percent change, Nov.)

Global Insight: 0.0%
Consensus: +0.1%
Last Actual: +0.2%

What to Look For

  • Industrial production expected to be unchanged in November.
  • Weather-related drag on utilities output to offset a rebound in motor vehicle production (from a very weak October level).
  • Core manufacturing should be roughly flat.
  • Capacity utilization slips lower.
  • Look out for revisions to historical data in advance of the report.

Implications

The manufacturing sector continues to be sandbagged by downward adjustments in auto production schedules and reductions in building materials output. Recent signs of weakness in orders for "other" durable goods may put a bit of a damper on manufacturing output, particularly of computers and communication equipment. The manufacturing sector is expected to barely eke out a gain in the fourth quarter, before picking up a little momentum and expanding about 2% in the first half of 2007.

by Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault

www.globalinsight.com

www.wmrc.com

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 



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