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01/11/2006 | Climate Change Pushed Up Political Agenda by Provocative U.K. Report

Global Insight Staff

Since efforts to persuade many key polluting nations to sign up to the Kyoto Protocol failed, international momentum on climate change has flagged. A high-profile report commissioned by the U.K. Treasury has, however, refocused some attention on the issue, highlighting the economic consequences and arguing that "climate change is the greatest market failure the world has seen".

 

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

Reports highlighting the potentially disastrous implications of global climate change are numerous, but the new Stern Review carries greater weight given the eminence of its author and the fact that it was commissioned by the U.K. government.

Implications

The report highlights the economic dimension, warning that the world faces its greatest slump since the 1930s. It argues that prompt action to tackle the looming crisis would be much less damaging economically than coping with effects such as higher sea levels, widespread desertification and extreme weather conditions.

Outlook

Efforts to tackle climate change will have little impact unless the United States is brought fully on board. The Bush administration yesterday acknowledged the findings of the Stern commission, but remains cautious about the scientific arguments and the economic rationale. The U.K. government boasts greater international influence than most, but among environmentalists there is scepticism that effective action will result.

Grim Reading

Yesterday saw the publication of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, the culmination of a major inquiry carried out by Sir Nicholas Stern and commissioned by the U.K. Treasury. Stern is currently head of the Government Economic Service, but is best known as the World Bank's former chief economist. The press release accompanying the report claims to be optimistic, arguing that it is not too late "to avoid the worst impacts of climate change". However, this involves immediate and international action, and given the current political climate the scope for optimism has to be limited. The report warns that: "Delaying action, even by a decade or two, will take us into dangerous territory. We must not let this window of opportunity close.”

The report plays down the most pessimistic scenarios advanced by doom-mongers, but its findings are nonetheless stark. It concludes that uncontrolled change will affect the poorest countries first and most severely. An increase in temperature of 5 degrees centigrade would, for example, greatly accelerate the desertification already sweeping Africa, and it is low-lying heavily populated poor areas such as Bangladesh that would bear the brunt of rising sea levels. Based on the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published in 2001, Stern finds that climate change will cost at least 5% of world GDP each year. Worst-case scenarios of greatly accelerated climate change point to a proportion of 20% or more.

Opponents of tough action to tackle the problem tend to highlight scientific uncertainties and argue that in this context the huge economic costs involved are unjustifiable. Stern plays down the scientific doubts, and finds that effective action to reduce greenhouse gases should cost less than 1% of GDP per year. The price of carbon-intensive goods would rise somewhat, but robust economic growth could continue. The costs of reducing emissions are much lower than the ultimate damage caused by them, Stern argues. Furthermore, there will be economic opportunities as low-carbon technologies are developed and rolled out.

The review calls for three key policy strategies:

  1. Carbon pricing, through taxation, emissions trading or regulation. A common global carbon price would be established across countries and sectors. Wider use of emissions trading is advocated.
  2. Technology policy must drive the development of low-carbon and high-efficiency products. This will be most effective if there is international co-ordination and technology transfer.
  3. Energy efficiency must be fostered, using persuasion and education. International product standards should be established to this end. Deforestation must be countered and developing countries helped to pursue less damaging agricultural techniques.

U.K. Government Pledges Fresh Momentum

The sponsor of the report, the U.K. government, says that it will use the review to press the case for a new global deal on cutting carbon emissions. Both Prime Minister Tony Blair and Chancellor Gordon Brown were present at the review's official launch. Brown, who is expected to succeed Blair, has made it clear that climate change would be a key priority for him, while (somewhat surprisingly) Conservative leader David Cameron has also embraced a strong environmental agenda. The Kyoto Protocol targets are set to be missed by many signatories, its geographical scope is limited, and it expires in 2012. The U.K. government consequently argues that a new deal must be set in motion now. It is aiming to secure a deal with the G8 leading industrial nations and key developing countries by 2008. Crucially, three key polluters not party to Kyoto—the United States, China and India—would be among their number. Germany is being called on to champion this when it assumes the G8 presidency in January. Brown is meanwhile pressing for the World Bank and United Nations to take a more proactive role on climate change, co-ordinating emissions trading among other things. Stern has been dispatched on a tour of key countries to press the case for a new deal.

In terms of unilateral U.K. measures, the government has indicated that it will introduce green taxes and commit to a long-term goal of decreasing carbon emissions by 60% by 2050 (although this would not be strictly annualised). An independent Carbon Committee has been proposed, modelled on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), to put in place the necessary measures.

Outlook and Implications

By trying to put a price on failing to tackle climate change, and by arguing that prompt action is cost-effective, Stern hopes to appeal to the many sceptical governments that have failed to act to date. The United States is clearly the biggest target, given its huge share of global emissions. There are concerns among environmentalists that Stern is being overly optimistic when he talks about the modest costs of tackling the problem, and about the prospects for tackling it effectively. However, even bringing about the kind of measures Stern advocates looks a very tall order politically. The negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol was painfully slow and difficult, and the measures fell far short of what Stern advocates. Without a change of administration in the United States, it seems highly unlikely that it will take a global lead, and for fast-growing Asia the longer-term threats posed by climate change are low down the list of immediate priorities.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 



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