Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Saddam Hussein’s brutal rule, which spanned three decades, came to a symbolic end at the gallows this weekend. Although the death knell to the Hussein regime was sounded by the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, his execution symbolised the political demise of Iraq’s Sunni-led Ba’ath party and the ascendance of Shi’a power.

Implications

Reaction to Saddam Hussein’s execution—carried out on the first day of Eid al-Adha, the Muslim feast of sacrifice—was predictably divided along sectarian lines. Sunni Arab supporters of the late leader, gathered in his home town of Tikrit, vowed to avenge the death of Hussein while Iraqi Shi’as, who bore the brunt of the fallen leader’s bloodthirsty reign, rejoiced in the speedy execution of the fallen leader.

Outlook

Hussein’s execution, which is widely perceived to have been hijacked by Shi’a elements close to the prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, threatens to inflame sectarian tensions in the country; as news of Hussein’s death emerged, a mini-bus exploded in the Shi’a-dominated southern city of Kufa. The handling of the late leader’s death will do nothing to address the gaping sectarian wounds in Iraq.

When the End Came

The brutal Arab nationalist hero of Ba’athist folklore—whose images and statues, clad in military uniforms and decorated with the highest honours, once adorned the streets of Iraq—was hanged this weekend at the Khadimiya prison in northern Baghdad for crimes against humanity. The brutal justice vetted out to many of Hussein’s political opponents was thus administered on the ousted dictator. His trial, which began on 19 October 2005, and subsequent execution, which many had hoped would offer an opportunity for national reconciliation, instead descended into a spectacle of sectarian tit-for-tat. Hussein was charged only for the deaths of some two hundred men and boys in the town of Dujail in 1982 and Iraqi Kurds, who suffered an equally cruel fate at the hands of the former leader, have complained that the swift execution of Hussein means that he has only been held accountable for crimes committed against Iraq’s now-dominant Shi’a community.

Although the official images of the execution only showed a subdued Hussein walking to the gallows, unofficial images taken by one of the 25 witnesses—now being circulated on various internet sites, paints a different picture. The grainy images show handpicked witnesses to the execution chanting cries in support of the Shi’a cleric and Mahdi army leader, Moqtda al-Sadr. Sadr’s Mahdi militia is behind much of the sectarian violence now ravaging the Iraqi capital, Baghdad. Reportedly, Saddam Hussein’s last words included the phrase, “I commend you to adhere to liberality and beware of the Persians”, a reference to the growing Iranian political and religious influence in Iraq. Hussein’s Sunni supporters, who have yet to reconcile themselves with the dramatic reversal in their political and social fortunes since his downfall, viewed the execution of their former leader—which they claim was deliberately timed to coincide with the first day of the Muslim festival of sacrifice—as an affront to Iraqi Sunnis by Iraq’s Shi’a-led rulers.

Sunni Muslims in Iraq and also notably in neighbouring Jordan, where two of Saddam’s daughters now live, reacted to Hussein’s execution with anger, vowing to resist both the U.S.-led presence in Iraq and also the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Although the hanging of Saddam Hussein has bolstered Maliki’s legitimacy among his Shi’a constituents, Sunni Muslims in Iraq and throughout the region view the trial and execution as indicative of a rising Shi’a sphere of influence at the expense of traditional Sunni centres of power. On the eve of Saddam’s execution, a leading Saudi cleric issued an edict declaring Shi’a Muslims to be “infidels”, with developments in Iraq seemingly spurring sectarian sentiments throughout the Middle East.

The World Reacts

Despite unease by Sunni Arab leaders at developments in Iraq, few tears were shed for the demise of Saddam Hussein—perhaps with the rare exception of Libyan leader Muammar al-Qadhafi, who declared three days of national mourning. Kuwaitis who tasted the wrath of Hussein’s brutality welcomed the execution. Further afield, U.S. President George W. Bush, whose 2003 invasion of Iraq paved the way for Hussein’s execution, distanced himself from the killing, issuing only a brief statement which said that while the execution was an “important milestone” for Iraq and that “many important choices and further sacrifices lie ahead”. With some 3,000 U.S. soldiers now having been killed in Iraq since 2003, the sacrifices necessary to secure the country and prevent its rapid descent into civil war are becoming ever more apparent. As news of Hussein’s death filtered throughout Iraq, over seventy people were killed in a seemingly never-ending cycle of sectarianism and insurgency violence. Although it is impossible to tell whether the latest suicide attack was spurred directly by the killing of the former autocrat, what is clear is that the sectarian fault lines in Iraq are becoming ever more pronounced, further complicating international efforts to restore some sort of normality to the war-ravaged country.

Outlook and Implications

The definitive end to Hussein’s rule came with his December 2003 capture. His trial, which should have been an opportunity to achieve closure on a brutal reign, was instead riddled by charges of defects and political intervention. Today, the sectarian militias that roam the streets of Iraq are far removed from the Ba’athist regime of Saddam Hussein. They do, however, share the brutal torture tactics employed by Hussein’s military intelligence agents, leading some to suggest that Iraq today is no better off than it was under Saddam Hussein. As President Bush ponders the way forward for Iraq, the death of his former nemesis will do little to reverse the tide of sectarian bloodletting in the country. Difficult choices as well as further sacrifices lie ahead for a country embroiled in a deepening civil conflict. Although Prime Minister Maliki said that the execution of Hussein underlined his government’s commitment to “human rights” in Iraq, many will view the execution as ‘victor’s justice’ that will inflame the Sunni-Shi’a divide in Iraq and the wider Middle East.

www.globalinsight.com

www.wmrc.com