Global Insight Perspective
Significance	The election has been heralded as a victory for democracy following half a century of semi-authoritarian rule by the BN, with the opposition hoping that it will mark the beginning of two-party democracy in Malaysia.
Implications	The election has widely been considered a vote of no-confidence for the BN, with Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi having been significantly weakened as a result. He is likely to face further calls for his resignation as the UMNO election approaches later this year.
Outlook	The coalition of opposition parties is also set to face some challenges in maintaining its cohesiveness as it caters to widely differing constituencies. They will have to transform themselves into convincing political leaders, though many newly elected MPs have no substantial experience due to the BN's long-term near monopoly on power.

Malaysia's Political Landscape Transformed

A greatly weakened Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was today sworn in for a second term, defying calls for his resignation after his ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition suffered its worst election defeat at Saturday’s (8 February) polls since Malaysia was granted independence from Great Britain in 1957. Ahead of the swearing-in ceremony at the royal palace in the capital, Kuala Lumpur, Badawi's predecessor, Mahathir Mohammad, renewed calls for his resignation after the historically disparate opposition fielded an unprecedented united front against the long-ruling BN, quadrupling its number of seats in the 222-seat parliament from 19 to 82, thereby changing Malaysia’s political landscape. The BN has for the past half a century dominated the political sphere, with the country having functioned as a de facto one-party state. The BN only narrowly maintained its majority, winning just 51.2% of the popular vote. This made manifest the groundswell of discontent in Malaysia amid ongoing marginalisation of the country’s Chinese and Indian minorities due to affirmative action policies favouring the Malay majority, as well as rising inflation, a growing wealth gap, and corruption among the state elite. The Badawi government has in the run-up to the election faced a series of protests, with a major rally drawing some 10,000 Indians in November last year, raising the spectre of ethnic conflict. The successive mass demonstrations have constituted the largest challenge to the Badawi government since it came to power in 2003, with its subsequent crackdown on dissents raising concerns over the country's democratic credentials.

The Emergence of a Unified Opposition

After the polls, opposition has been left in control of an unprecedented five out of Malaysia’s 13 states, winning majorities in Selangor, Penang, Kedah, and Perak in addition to Kelantan, which has long been the heartland of the Islamic Party (PAS). The opposition additionally captured Kuala Lumpur, obtaining 10 of its 11 parliamentary seats. Depriving the BN of its two-thirds majority, the opposition further put a halt to its unilaterally made constitutional amendments, providing it with much improved influence on the political process. Its gains have been made possible by former deputy premier and de facto leader of the People’s Justice Party (Keadilan Rakyat) Ibrahim Anwar, spearheading a strategy of creating a loose coalition between the otherwise disparate opposition and renewing the reformasi movement of 1998. The parties that make up the opposition—PAS, Keadilan Rakyat, and the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party (DAP)—as such agreed to field only one candidate per constituency so as not to split the opposition vote. A common theme for the opposition has been that of appealing to lower-income groups that consider the affirmative action policies favouring the country’s Malay majority (bumiputra—constituting 60% of the population) to be flawed. Anwar’s Keadilan Rakyat has outright vowed to seek to dismantle these, thereby providing a common cause for the country's disparate minority parties at a time of high ethnic tension. This platform has seemingly been successful in capturing votes from the BN coalition’s traditional Malay base, with many feeling that these have not left them in a better position. Observers hold that there was a last-minute swing among Malays, who had initially been expected to vote for the BN given the preferential treatment schemes for them in the face of ethnic minority calls for greater inter-ethnic equality.

Outlook and Implications

The election has been heralded as a victory for democracy following half a century of semi-authoritarian rule by the BN, with the opposition hoping that it will mark the beginning of two-party democracy. The poll has transformed Malaysia’s political landscape, but different challenges loom ahead for both the opposition and the government as each steers into uncharted territory,

Anwar's Comeback

With the opposition gains made, Anwar has emerged as a unifying head of the opposition and a potential future prime minister at the next election in 2013. As such, he has undermined part of the BN’s rationale for calling a snap election a year ahead of time—a move partly aimed at pre-empting his return to the political scene. Anwar is barred from standing until April due to his conviction in a corruption and sodomy case that erupted in 1998 and led to his downfall. It was widely believed to be politically motivated, with Mahathir Mohammed fearing that he had gained too much influence. However, Anwar’s wife and daughter have both won seats in parliament and have made it widely known that they are willing to hand over their seats to him in a by-election. Anwar, whose party Keadilan Rakyat won 31 seats, has, however, made it clear that he is in no hurry.

Creating and Maintaining a Unified Opposition

Nevertheless, the opposition is set to face challenges in maintaining the cohesiveness of the loosely knitted coalition of opposition parties, which cater to widely differing constituencies. Anwar’s Keadilan Rakyat has taken on the position of bridging the secular DAP and the Islamist PAS, which has in the past campaigned on a platform of implementing Sharia law. They must now maintain this coalition and agree on some common goals while also transforming themselves into convincing political leaders, with none of the parties except Keadilan Rakyat having substantial experience of being in power due to the BN’s long-term near monopoly. Although they have succeeded in crossing ethnic and religious lines in the run-up to the election, such cohesiveness is set to be further tested. Anwar’s proposed policy of abolishing the affirmative action policies in favour of addressing poverty across ethnic divides may be a focal point in this respect, but differences on a variety of issues are expected.

Troubled Times for Abdullah

The election has widely been considered a vote of no-confidence for the BN, with Badawi emerging as the election’s loser after his gambit of calling snap election failed to deliver the results that the BN had hoped for. Compounding the blow dealt to Badawi, he also lost control of Penang state, a major industrial centre where his constituency is based. The poor election results have weakened his position within his United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which heads the BN. This raises questions of whether he will be able to survive the party’s upcoming election, which will elect the head of UMNO, who also fills the premiership role. The election is expected to expose fault lines within UMNO and bring to the fore the rivalry between him and his deputy, Najib Razak, who is a proponent of the old guard’s call for strengthening affirmative action. UMNO may in this context take on greater dominance within the BN as minority partners have been weakened by the defection of their supporters to the opposition. However, the opposition’s cause has also found resonance within the Malay segments of the population, with Badawi's policy agenda of rooting out corruption and streamlining the government being widely considered a failure. His personal popularity ratings have as such fallen from as much as 90% at the time of the 2004 election to some 30% ahead of this year’s election amid various scandals involving his opposition to affirmative action policies and religious controversies, highlighting the task ahead for the embattled prime minister.