IHS Global Insight Perspective

Significance: King Abdullah dismissed Prime Minister Samir Rifai yesterday after popular protests against a stagnant economy and political process.

Implications: Rifai's replacement is Maaruf Bakhit, a former army commander and prime minister between 2005 and 2007. His appointment has not been welcomed by opposition groups in the country.

Outlook: King Abdullah has impressed on Bakhit the need for "true political reforms", but given the lack of progress on these issues during his last tenure in office, there are doubts that he can turn the king's words into actions, raising the risk and potential for further anti-government demonstrations.

King Abdullah of Jordan yesterday dismissed Prime Minister Samir Rifai following protests in the country's capital, Amman. Rifai has been replaced by the former prime minister and ex-army commander Maaruf Bakhit, who previously held the office between 2005 and 2007. Surprising changes of government are not in themselves unusual in Jordan. Samir Rifai was appointed in December 2009 after King Abdullah unexpectedly dissolved parliament and ruled by decree for 11 months until parliamentary elections were held in November 2010. However, the effect of this latest move has been given added potency given the tumultuous events in Tunisia and the ongoing political crisis in Egypt. In this context, governmental instability in Jordan has perhaps inevitably given rise to speculation that the wave of unrest sweeping the Arab world will next impact Amman, despite Abdullah's attempts to reinforce stability.

Bakhit Reappointed

Bakhit is in the process of assembling a new cabinet that, in the words of a statement from King Abdullah yesterday, must "take practical, quick and tangible steps to launch true political reforms, enhance Jordan's democratic drive and ensure safe and decent living for all Jordanians". Reform, the statement went on to say, was a "necessity to provide a better life for our people, but we won't be able to attain that without real political reforms, which must increase popular participation in the decision-making".

Bakhit was first appointed prime minister in 2005 in the wake of the terrorist attacks on two international hotels in central Amman, claimed by the now deceased Iraq-based Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Bakhit was then seen as a prime minister more likely than his predecessor, Adnan Badran, to balance the needs of reform with the desire for increased security. Bakhit left office in 2007 after organising parliamentary elections that were boycotted by the Islamic Action Front (IAF), Jordan's local offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. That boycott and the results of the election, which delivered a legislature that strengthened the position of pro-government independents and tribal supporters, suggested strongly that although Bakhit may have delivered stability, he was viewed as incapable of delivering reform.

Indeed the same could be said of his successors, Nadir al-Dahabi (2007-09) and Samir Rifai (2009-11), both technocrats from outside parliament instructed by King Abdullah to deliver more meaningful political and economic reform. The fact that all of these prime ministers have yet to make good on Abdullah's promises has somewhat undermined the King's position—though he and his family remain personally very popular—and has called into question his commitment to the reforms he repeatedly claims he wants to deliver.

Opposition on the Streets

In the context of the political turmoil currently sweeping the Arab world, Abdullah's failure to maintain a meaningful reform and liberalisation programme has added potency. Moreover, with Jordan still emerging from the global financial crisis, long-standing socio-economic grievances have also come to the fore once more and brought the people back onto the streets of Amman.

These grievances include a wide poverty gap, huge variations in living standards, a rising youth population, many of whom are finding it difficult to acquire employment, and a perception that that government is not interested in resolving the problems. Underpinning these issues is the fact that Jordan is a majority Palestinian-populated country ruled by an East Bank elite, a fact consistently exploited by the IAF, which draws most of its support from poor, urban Palestinians. It is these people who have taken to the streets in recent days.

Nevertheless, the IAF remains a divisive force in Jordan and its strength is frequently overestimated, perhaps a product of the fact that there is no strong secular opposition to the government, as groups of this type are co-opted by the palace. Indeed the IAF (itself divided into hardline and moderate factions) continues to walk a domestic tightrope between opposition and co-operation. For example, it has disavowed the replacement of the King and swears loyalty to the monarchy, but at the same time is opposed to the peace treaty with Israel and is uneasy at Abdullah's strongly pro-Western foreign policy alignment. What this means is that, although the group frequently projects itself as the voice of legitimate opposition in Jordan, its message is sometimes misconstrued inside and outside of the country. This has fed its critics' perception that it is, at best, an unreliable political partner, or, at worst, a cover for introducing radical strands of Islam into the country, both accusations denied by the IAF.

The protests and the dismissal of Rifai's government have seen the IAF emphasise moderation. Refraining from criticising the king, they nonetheless opposed Bakhit's reappointment. "He is not the right person to run things at this current state and get Jordan out of crisis," said Zaki Bani Rsheid, an IAF leader, following the announcements yesterday, adding: "We need a man who is well respected by the people, a man who does not have a history of corruption and oppression. How can he lead political reform?".

Outlook and Implications

The problem facing Bakhit and King Abdullah remains that both are unwilling to countenance the type of reforms demanded by the opposition. For example, diluting the king's extensive patronage powers, especially his power to select the prime minister (a key IAF demand reiterated in the past few weeks), or opening up elections for free and fair competition, do not currently appear to be on the government's agenda. What is clear is that price control measures and salary increases for public workers are no longer enough. Unless King Abdullah and his new prime minister quickly begin the reform process demanded by many Jordanians, further demonstrations are likely, and with the potential for escalation to a more serious political crisis.