Economic Growth: Performance in 2008 and Impact of Global Recession

The Maghreb nations performed relatively well in 2008, despite a slowdown in the world economy. Among the region’s oil exporters, Algeria experienced a boost to growth in 2008, to 3.6% from 3.4% a year earlier, driven by robust non-oil-sector growth due to strongly expansionary government policy. Both the construction sector and services linked to infrastructure projects grew robustly. The Algerian economy is expected to post a slower growth rate in 2009, a reflection of tough conditions in the world economy, sharp corrections in the price of oil during the year, and tighter rules governing foreign investment. Nevertheless, the Algerian government can continue to expand spending in the short term to support non-oil sectors, thanks to its large stock of international reserves. Reserves stood at US$140 billion at end-March 2009, more than doubling the amount posted 36 months earlier. Among the more-diversified economies in the region, Tunisia's economic growth eased slightly to 4.6% in 2008, from 6.3% in 2007, as the Eurozone economies slowed during the year. Eurozone nations sunk into a severe recession in 2009, hurting Tunisian export and growth. Despite difficult domestic and external conditions the government continued to implement structural reforms, albeit at a slow pace to minimise social discontent.

Meanwhile, healthy expansion in non-agriculture sectors in Morocco, especially in telecommunications, financial services, and construction, led to a sharp acceleration in growth to 5.4% during 2008. Growth was modest in the previous year because of a strong contraction in agriculture. The Moroccan economy is expected to weather the global recession given exceptional performance in the farming sector in 2009. Yet growth should moderate given slowdown in non-oil sectors, lower merchandise exports, remittances from abroad, tourism receipts, and FDI. Overall, the Maghreb region expanded 4.9% in real terms during 2008. The ongoing global financial crisis has reduced short-term growth prospects for Maghreb nations, and IHS Global Insight expects the region to grow 2.2% in 2009. This is still a remarkable performance given the severe deteriorations in world economic conditions which have led to the failure of a few major companies and the collapse in the housing market in industrialised nations. Economic conditions in the Maghreb could be improved if integration among countries could be deepened. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently stressed the importance of deeper integration among Maghreb economies, which he believed was the best protection against the effects of external crisis.

Regional and Global Integration Could Boost Growth and FDI Inflows

Political tensions between Maghreb countries remain high, with Algeria and Morocco taking a different stance on the Western Sahara territory. In the past the region has focused mainly on anti-terrorism measures, sometimes to the detriment of economic reforms. Maghreb nations could benefit greatly from enhanced economic integration within the region and with the international economy. Regional trade exchanges are currently very low: For example trade between Morocco and Algeria represent only 2% of the total trade exchanges of the two countries. According to data published by Algeria's National Data Processing and Statistics Centre, the country's trade surplus with the other four nations of the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA) has almost doubled in 2008 compared to 2007. Yet Algerian exports to the UMA stood at US$1.3 billion, compared with total merchandise exports of US$78.6 billion, while imports from the other Maghreb countries amounted to US$387.5 million (as opposed to an overall import bill of US$37.4 billion). By creating a larger market, a regional integration would yield great benefits, in a form of higher growth and lower unemployment. The overall unemployment rate for the region is estimated at 15—25%, with very high unemployment among urban women and young college graduates. A regional integration could create the market dynamics for a better absorption of the total labour force. Meanwhile, per-capita real GDP in the Maghreb could increase by an additional 50% by 2015 through deeper integration and reform, according to a recent study by the World Bank.

Markets in the Maghreb remain fragmented and will require integration and openness to achieve development. In turn, the large market of more than 75 million consumers which could be created by deeper integration could make these countries more attractive to foreign investment. Some reports suggest that total Maghreb inward FDI stock would rise moderately if only a deeper integration among Maghreb nations was pursued. If in addition to regional integration, a full fledged U.S.-EU free-trade agreement could be reached, the stock of FDI could increase by an additional 70—80%. Thus Maghreb nations also stand to gain tremendously by forging closer economic relations with the European Union and the United States. In such a scenario GDP in the region could grow by an additional 2—4%.

Outlook and Implications

The immediate effect of the ongoing global financial crisis on Maghreb nations such as Algeria and Morocco has been modest. Nevertheless the resulting global recession has had a bigger impact on the Maghreb economies: Export revenues, FDI inflows, remittances from expatriates, and tourism are expected to feel the impact of the worldwide recession. With North African nations facing a sharp slowdown in 2009, the future of the Maghreb region resides in economic reforms and integration. Political reforms are expected to be slow, with differences between Algeria and Morocco impeding on these reforms. On the other hand, economic reforms are expected to pick up in the next 12—36 months. Like Tunisia, we expect other North African nations to sign economic agreements within and outside the Maghreb block, boosting trade exchanges and FDI inflows. A deeper regional integration will be a first step toward cushioning the Maghreb economy from adverse external shocks. In the longer term we hope to see the existence of an EU/U.S./Maghreb FTA.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)