Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The elections constitute the culmination of the peace process initiated in 2005 between the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and the Indonesian government, following a drawn-out separatist struggle

Implications

While the election of Irwandi is a victory for the reformist branch of GAM, the movement faces a number of challenges in its quest to transform itself into a full-fledged political party. It could splinter, due to increasing divisions between the old and new guards.

Outlook

Its rule will depend on its ability to deliver on crucial issues of reconstruction and grassroots economic growth, as well as the central government's continued commitment to the autonomy framework laid out in the peace agreement

The Peace Process Culminates

The former rebel commander Irwandi Yusuf yesterday became the first directly elected governor of Aceh, when the province held its first-ever elections. The vote marked the culmination of the peace process initiated last year between the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and the Indonesian government. Security was high, with more than 10,000 police deployed to secure the 8,625 polling stations and avert violence, as the population of Aceh set out to vote.

According to flash counts conducted in the aftermath of the elections, Irwandi and his running mate, human rights activist Muhammad Nazar, have won almost 39% of the vote; this is 21.5% more than their nearest challengers, Humam Hamid and Hasbi Abdullah, who were widely seen as the choice of GAM’s “old guard”. While the official result of the vote is not due before 2 January 2007, the quick count has generally been accepted as reliable, paving the way for Irwandi to take the post of governor of the war-torn province. The ex-GAM combatant was imprisoned on treason charges in 2003, but escaped from prison on 26 December 2004, when the tsunami struck, killing an estimated 168,000 people in Aceh.

This in turn paved the way for GAM and the Indonesian government to sign a peace agreement on 15 August 2005, allowing them to change their priorities and focus on the urgent reconstruction effort, after a three-decade war that had cost 12,000 lives. This was heralded as a major success, spelling a long-awaited end to the 30-year conflict. The GAM's announcement that it had successfully dissolved its armed wing, and the subsequent withdrawal of 2,500 Indonesian TNI troops in December 2005, constituted significant milestones in the implementation of the peace agreement. The government finally passed the Aceh autonomy law in July 2006, after major delays resulting from nationalist fears in Jakarta that it would allow resource-rich Aceh to split from the rest of Indonesia. However, the law has faced mixed reactions, with GAM claiming that the watered-down autonomy law violates the spirit of the peace agreement.

A Vote for Change

Being an ex-combatant associated with the younger element that remained in Aceh when the old political leadership went into exile in Sweden, and running as an independent in the elections, Irwandi's election is widely considered a vote for change. He has pledged to abide by the peace agreement in the aftermath of the election, but has claimed that he will demand significant amendments to the Aceh autonomy law, as too much power remains in central government hands. However, the autonomy bill is the outcome of a precarious balancing act by the Indonesian government, which is seeking to accommodate greater autonomy for the province, while retaining the continued support of conservative forces in Jakarta who fear the loss of "another East Timor". In a bid not to create further divisions, Irwandi has announced his intention to postpone the process of seeking justice for human rights abuses until 2009, by which time GAM will have fully transformed from a guerrilla force into a political party capable of taking part in the general elections.

Outlook and Implications

The historic elections constitute a milestone for Aceh, as well as Indonesia, as it is the first time that independent candidates have been allowed to run in elections. The polls have in turn served to repudiate reports that GAM’s influence had diminished, and that parties served as the only conduit for political aspirations, with independent candidates winning the gubernatorial elections as well as half the district head posts.

However, while the election of Irwandi represents a victory for the reformist branch of GAM, the movement faces a number of challenges in its quest to transform itself into a fully fledged political party. As such, the run-up to the elections has exposed increasing divisions within GAM, which put forward 30 candidates to stand as independents. A split has emerged between the movement’s exiled leadership in Sweden and its former field combatants, with the two sides granting their support to different candidates. The ex-combatants on the ground have favoured Irwandi and his running mate, while the exiled "old guard" backed Ahmad Humam Hamid, a representative of a national Muslim party, and Hasbi Abdullah for the posts of governor and vice-governor. The developing split raises questions over GAM's ability to become a coherent party that can integrate successfully into the political process. According to Sydney Jones of the International Crisis Group, the divisions that are starting to emerge are “deep and durable”. They reflect the degree of divergence between the perspective of the exiled leadership and the people facing pressure and adverse conditions in the province itself.

A question remains over whether GAM can overcome its divisions, or whether the elections and their aftermath will see the emergence of various splinter factions, potentially forming contending parties at a later date. GAM’s plan to create a political party within six months therefore depends on its ability to emerge as a cohesive organisation, and show itself in a responsible governing capacity, as it will no longer be able to hold Jakarta accountable for the province’s ills. The elected local government will also face a number of challenges on which they will have to deliver if they are to maintain the support of the Acehnese population until the 2009 general elections. A key priority remains reconstruction and rebuilding the economy, which will necessarily be a joint effort with the central government. This involves a fair distribution of aid to the victims of the protracted conflict and tsunami, as well as the reintegration of ex-combatants into society. It also involves channelling economic benefits to the population, which could be hampered by the pervasive problem of corruption.

Meanwhile, the prospects for the firm establishment of peace and democracy in Aceh also hinge on the continued commitment of the Indonesian government to the peace agreement, with some observers stating that it may find it difficult to stomach the results of the election. Aceh has been seen as a testing ground for the implementation of autonomy bills to address separatist conflict, and an unfavourable result would undermine the model as a solution to other such conflicts elsewhere in Indonesia—notably in resource-rich Papua, where the Free Papua Movement (OPM) is waging a separatist battle against the central government. However, any move to undermine the results of the popular election would signal a reversion to the kind of action seen under the "New Order" regime of Suharto, and would therefore be too costly to Indonesia’s first democratically elected government, under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. As a result, central government interference is an unlikely development, although the stage is set for complications, as the local Acehnese government pursues more far-reaching autonomy for the province.

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