After weeks of delays and intense political manoeuvrings, Iraq’s lawmakers agreed yesterday on amendments to the election law, paving the way for polls to be held on time by the 31 January deadline set by the Iraqi constitution. The agreement comes as a relief as continuous delays and deep disagreements between political factions had caused concern that the elections would be pushed back, potentially affecting the speed of U.S. troop withdrawal from the country. Commenting on the momentous achievement, U.S. president Barack Obama hailed the agreement as an ''important milestone as the Iraqi people continue to take responsibility for their future''. It was not immediately clear what the breakdown of votes was with regards to political factions; however, the deputy speaker of parliament Khalid al-Attiya was quoted by Agence France-Presse (AFP) as saying to Iraqi television that 141 of the 195 lawmakers present had voted in its favour. The law will now be passed to the presidential council headed by President Jalal Talabani and his two deputies, Adil Abd al-Mahdi and Tariq al-Hashemi, which is expected to approve it without delay.

Kirkuk Remains a Stumbling Block

The main point of contention had been the status of the oil-rich, disputed province of Kirkuk. Home to an amalgam of ethnic and religious groups—Kurds, Arabs, Turkmens, Christians, and other minority communities—a long-delayed resolution to the province’s status (whether it should be included in the three-province Kurdistan Region or whether it should fall under the jurisdiction of the federal government in Baghdad) has virtually affected every major political decision taken in Iraq’s post-Saddam history. In similarity with a swathe of other so-called disputed areas that border the region governed by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Kirkuk was subject to a process of Arabisation under Saddam Hussein. Arabisation was engineered to alter the demographic makeup of ethnically-mixed areas, by forcibly expelling thousands of families and effectively replacing them with mostly Sunni Arabs from other parts of the country. Since 2003 a gradual process of reversing Arabisation has taken place, and thousands of displaced people—most of which are Kurdish—have returned to the province to reclaim their homes. With the population of the province in flux and already high tensions between Kurds, Turkmens, and Arabs, (the latter two fervently oppose a permanent solution that would include Kirkuk within the KRG and claim that the Kurdish authorities have artificially aided the inflation of the Kirkuk’s Kurdish numbers) the province’s participation in the upcoming elections is viewed as critical in determining its final status.

Ahead of the vote a number of proposals had been on the table for Kirkuk’s participation, which included removing it from elections altogether (as was the case with the January 2009 provincial polls), using 2004 voter registers, and 2009 registers. The first two options, and variations of these options, were vehemently opposed by the KRG which threatened to pull out from the elections altogether if Kirkuk was dealt special status or if the 2004 registers were used. Arabs and Turkmens on the other hand opposed the use of 2009 registers as they clearly would reflect changes to the population dynamics of the past few years. The solution reached yesterday will use the 2009 registers but sets out a one-year window for the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) which in collaboration with the UN will be able to investigate anomalous or fraudulent ballots. Although the election law does not mention other individual disputed areas, it allows for the same provisions to be used elsewhere. This agreement is a partial victory for all sides, and it once again proves how deeply the failure to resolve the status of disputed areas affects Iraqi politics.

Open System

The second major achievement of the election law was the agreement on an open ballot system, unlike the closed system which was used in the last general elections in 2005 whereby ballot lists did not specify the name of each candidate. Voters instead simply cast their support for political lists as they appeared on the ballots, allowing anonymity for candidates who at the time were under serious threat from militants and insurgent groups. An open system on the other hand requires each and every candidate running in the election for each political list to appear on the ballots. The open system has clear benefits as it ensures greater transparency and accountability in allowing voters to see the names of political candidates. Further provisions agreed will ensure women at least 25% of the parliamentary seats and at least eight seats have been reserved for minority groups.

Outlook and Implications

After a couple of turbulent months in which Iraq has seen two mass-casualty attacks on official institutions on a scale rarely seen nowadays, the election law will bolster the much-criticised government and the political system to some degree. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki hailed the agreement yesterday as a ''strong response to the terrorists and thugs of the former regime'' and ''those who are trying to undermine Iraq’s security and political process''. The incoming government after January 2010 will oversee the period of full U.S. troop withdrawal and by implication will become the first real sovereign post-Saddam Iraqi government. It will face all the critical decisions that the current political constellation has failed to address satisfactorily: the status of disputed areas, the stalled hydrocarbons law, a possible constitutional revision, among other issues. It is also expected to draw a significant wider participation than the 2005 polls, which were boycotted by many Sunnis.

Certainly Maliki will be able to capitalise on the agreement for his re-election bid, particularly as polls will in all likelihood be held before the end of January 2010, even if the original 16 January date is abandoned. Indeed, U.S. ambassador Christopher Hill, whose presence has been critical to the law’s passing, said yesterday that 23 January is a likely date as it will give the IHEC some additional leverage to prepare for the ballots. Hill’s reportedly intense participation in the bargaining leading up to the vote testifies to the significance of the elections and their possible affect on the U.S. troop-withdrawal schedule which is set to see the pullout of all combat troops by August 2010 and a complete withdrawal by the end of 2011. Admitting finally that a postponement of vote would have affected troop withdrawal Hill said yesterday: ''The drawdown can be done according to schedule…the concern of course was had these deliberations gone on, then new decisions would have to be made about the drawdown''. These comments serve to prove that the seemingly immovable schedule is not immune to political events in Iraq which are still unpredictable and influenced by security developments.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)