Global Insight Perspective

Significance

With just one month to go before the first round of presidential elections, the French constitutional court has announced the confirmed list of candidates eligible to run.

Implications

The list is four candidates shorter than that for the 2002 elections, with the high number that year having contributed in large part to the significant number of protest votes against the mainstream candidates. Once more, however, it appears that the left-leaning candidates are capable of stealing votes from Socialist Party hopeful, Ségolène Royal.

Outlook

The race for the second round is expected to be very close, and at this stage it is far from a foregone conclusion.

The Race for the Finish Line

France’s highest court, the Conseil Constitutionnel, yesterday announced the confirmed list of candidates eligible to contest the first round of the country’s presidential elections next month (22 April). The list contains 12 names of those who managed to obtain the required number of mayoral signatures (parainnages) in order to run, as per the country’s electoral rules. The announcement of many of the candidates on the list came as little surprise, except that of the anti-globalisation activist José Bové, who just scraped through with 504 votes (the threshold is 500).

In the 2002 first-round contest, 16 candidates were deemed eligible to run, and this high number in no small part contributed to the unprecedented scenario which followed, in which the leader of the far-right National Front (FN), Jean-Marie Le Pen, proceeded to the second round. The situation led to incumbent Jacques Chirac being elected with an enormous 82% of the vote in the second round, and left the French mainstream in a crisis, from which it has struggled to recover.

Foremost among the favourites to make it through to the second round, to be held two weeks after the first, is the ruling Union for the People’s Movement (UMP) party’s Nicolas Sarkozy, who is expected to renounce his functions as interior minister before the end of March to concentrate fully on his campaign. Sarkozy is the front-runner for the presidency, painting himself as a reformist candidate unafraid to speak out over sensitive issues such as crime and immigration. He is being challenged primarily by the opposition Socialist Party’s (PS) Ségolène Royal, who has presented herself as the one to herald in a Sixth Republic for France, with a focus on institutional reform, increased welfare provisions, and a return to state-led social and economic policies. The “third man” giving both Royal and Sarkozy cause for concern is the centrist François Bayrou, leader of the Union for French Democracy (UDF), who has emerged as the most credible alternative to the two mainstream candidates. Bayrou’s rise in the opinion polls is indicative of the disdain of the French public towards the established political class, and the desire for change; indeed, one of the reasons most often given for support of Bayrou is that he is more trustworthy than the others. Although Le Pen is on the list again, his age (78) and the memories of the shock of 2002 are likely to count against him, although he has tried to present himself as a centre-right candidate during this campaign, in a bid to broaden his appeal.

Who are the Candidates?

Outlook and Implications

Once again, the inclusion of several extreme-left candidates could pose problems for the mainstream PS, as was the case in 2002, when protest votes in the first round benefiting the far left contributed to the elimination of then-prime minister Lionel Jospin from the contest, and from frontline politics altogether. Royal has the most to lose from such a situation, having failed to persuade the likes of Buffet and Voynet not to run against her, in return for the possibility of fielding joint candidates in the legislative elections that follow one month after the presidential ballots. Six of the 12 candidates hail from the left of the political spectrum, highlighting the continuing ideological divisions of the French left.

The situation makes Royal even less assured of progressing to the second round, with Bayrou hot on her heels in the polls. For Sarkozy, the biggest challenge therefore is now presented by Bayrou, or to a lesser extent Le Pen, than Royal, who, it is predicted, he would easily beat in a second-round run-off. Against Bayrou, Sarkozy would have a tougher time.

With just one month remaining before the first round, stringent electoral rules on airtime have now come into play from yesterday. With the race wide open, and time running out for the top candidates to make an impact on the French public, the contest is likely to be the most closely fought for years.

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