Significance:   Two car-bomb attacks outside the state government house in Warri yesterday (15 March) coincided with a post-amnesty conference drawing together a number of state governors and public officials. Unconfirmed reports state that one person died in the blasts and there were numerous injuries. The talks were aborted as a result.

Implications:   The style of MEND's attack is in contrast to the group's usual modus operandi and could point to a change in strategy, possibly fuelled by reduced resources.

Outlook:  A resurgence of violence in the Niger Delta will be a setback for Acting President Goodluck Jonathan and Nigeria's oil industry as a whole. The sector had recently managed to recover owing to the amnesty deal. However, the threat of more attacks severely undermines political stability and security.

Time Bomb

The timing of the explosions could not have favoured the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND—Nigeria’s most infamous militant group) any better. The group chose to coincide the bomb blasts with the post-amnesty conference, dubbed “Restoring Hope in the Niger Delta”, organised by the Vanguard newspaper. Two car bombs were detonated just outside the government house where the high-level talks were taking place, in which a number of state governors and public officials were involved to discuss the post-amnesty crisis in the Niger Delta. According to an official, the blast killed one person and caused multiple injuries, although this has not been confirmed by the security forces.

Having sent out an emailed statement warning that it would carry out an attack within half an hour, MEND thereafter immediately claimed responsibility for the blasts. The group said that it had planted three explosive devices in and around the state government compound, but in the end only two bombs exploded. It is unclear why the third device did not detonate as planned. The first explosion reportedly occurred shortly after 11:00—just minutes after IHS Global Insight received the emailed warning—some 200 metres from the Government House Annex. The second blast occurred 30 minutes later, “shattering windows at the conference hall”, ThisDay reports. The security forces then rushed to evacuate the delegates and the scheduled two-day talks were abandoned.

Prospects of Renewed Violence

The bomb attacks are in stark contrast to the type of attacks usually employed by MEND, therefore pointing to a possible new strategic direction. MEND shot to pre-eminence in January 2006 following its emailed statement claiming responsibility for the kidnapping of four foreign oil-workers. Since then, in pursuit of its stated aim of ensuring that the inhabitants of the Niger Delta benefit commensurately from the oil wealth in the region, MEND has mainly been involved in kidnappings, and sabotaging oil pipelines and installations, directly targeting foreign oil companies. However, yesterday’s attacks are unprecedented. This terrorist-style attack, which has the possibility of causing much civilian suffering, could confirm suspicions that the level of manpower and resources that were once at MEND’s disposal has greatly reduced. The sophisticated offshore attacks on oil installations are costly and require much co-ordination, and since MEND’s senior command participated in the government’s amnesty deal, which ended in October 2009, there have been suspicions that the group is not as strong as it once was. Thus, perhaps the car-bomb attacks point to reduced resources within the group, but nevertheless show that the group is still able to make as much of an impact, if not more, by resorting to tactics that could implicate not just oil workers, but government officials and civilians.

Indeed, the tone of the communiqué issued by the group prior to the bombings suggests MEND's desire to reaffirm its relevance to the Niger Delta debate. The Warri bombings were seemingly in response to recent comments made by the governor of Delta State that MEND is a media creation, which prompted the group to show that it “exist[s] outside of cyberspace”. The group went on to say that “thinking of no better way to announce our continued presence in the Niger Delta …operatives of MEND today (15 March 2010) successfully breached the security at the Delta State government house … and planted three explosive devices”. The group said that it would no longer tolerate “the deceit of endless dialogue” and claims that the oil companies and northern Nigeria are depriving the Niger Delta states of gaining their fair share of the oil wealth.

The north/south divide has been bandied about the media a great deal in recent weeks, particularly in view of the uncertain political leadership in the country. In a system where being in control of the polity is synonymous with being in control of the nation’s resources, the absence of President Umaru Yar’Adua from political life for over three months has opened the floodgates to the debate over who should be at the country’s helm. Just this week it was decided at the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) national caucus that the next president should be from the north because northern Yar’Adua has only served one term, while his southern predecessor was able to serve two consecutive terms. This agreement therefore cuts short any presidential ambitions that Goodluck Jonathon may have harboured as a southerner from Bayelsa State. This stage-managed process is likely to shore up more problems, particularly as the Niger Delta militants have expressed a deep sense of mistrust of the northern constituency. “It is common knowledge that no southerner can lay claim to an inch of land in the north, so why should we continue to talk as the occupation of our land and theft of our resources by the oil companies and northern Nigeria persists?” However, it is not just the northern leadership that has been the object of smears by MEND; the group has also charged the southern governors with being “shameless and visionless stooges, who are more concerned with looting their state treasuries and seeking a second term".

Outlook and Implications