A Sigh of Relief

Finally, five months after Lebanon held general elections and over four months since the Future Movement’s Saad Hariri was designated prime minister, rival factions have agreed on the makeup of a new unity government. The arrangement is a compromise, unity government that allocates 15 seats for the winners of elections; 10 seats for the opposition (which includes the armed Hizbollah movement); and five seats for allocation by President Michel Suleiman. Suleiman’s position as a neutral powerbroker, which he has developed in recent years, allows his designated ministers to prevent either the majority or the opposition enough power in the cabinet to block a decision. Facing up to the challenges ahead Hariri said yesterday, as he announced the formation of the new government: ''The cabinet will either allow the Lebanese to renew trust in their institutions, or it will lead them to repeat their past failures to achieve consensus.'' Hariri was certainly correct in recognising that the formation of the government is in many ways the least of the country’s problems; indeed, most of the challenges still lay ahead.

Delays, Delays, Delays

Government formation efforts have been fraught with difficulties, leading Hariri to resign from his post as designated premier in September, only to be reappointed shortly after. At the time Hariri’s efforts had been hit by the bombshell announcement by powerful Druze leader and former March 14 supporter Walid Jumblatt that he would be withdrawing from the coalition. Jumblatt’s retraction of four years of support for the Western-backed March 14 bloc to realign himself somewhat closer to the Syrian-Arab-centrist camp which forms the opposition, was a serious blow to March 14’s strengthand to Hariri’s own position. In the aftermath of Jumblatt’s announcement, Christian leader and head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Michel Aoun, has posed the main obstacle to the cabinet formation. His insistence on retaining the Telecommunications Ministry for his parliamentary bloc—the Change and Reform group—and keep it in the hands of his son-in-law, Gibran Basil, was obstinately rejected by Hariri, not least because Basil failed to secure enough votes in the polls for his re-election. Furthermore, Aoun long insisted on control of at least one of the so-called sovereign portfolios: Interior, Finance, Foreign, or Defence.

The Line-Up

The line-up (listed below) shows that Aoun’s Change and Reform bloc did indeed gain the Telecommunications Ministry; however, a compromise was reached as Basil has been made Minister of Energy instead of being reappointed. Crucially, the line-up also gives the Foreign Ministry to Hizbollah allies, Amal, while Hizbollah gets two seats, including the Agricultural Ministry and the State portfolio for Administrative reform. Critically, the majority’s share includes three ministers from the Democratic Gathering bloc of Jumblatt’s Druze-based Progressive Socialist Party, further watering down the possibility of the majority to attempting to dominate the government as it is unclear whether the Democratic Gathering bloc will at all times vote with the majority.

Outlook and Implications

After the long delay, this unity government is a victory. It shows that despite the difficulties of reaching an agreement, the dedication in forming a unity government overrode the currents within March 14 which no doubt would have preferred to give up mediation to simply form a majority government. That of course would have been a highly dangerous, if not impossible, option and would almost certainly have led to the eruption of fighting between government forces and armed Hizbollah supporters, pushing the country into yet another crisis. Notwithstanding the critical hurdle overcome in the agreement on the new government, as ever, Lebanon is not safe from the dangers of crisis. Indeed, the hailed power-sharing agreement is what has prevented a political crisis, but it could very well lead to prolonged cabinet deadlocks on key issues where the majority and the opposition are bound to disagree. This would testify to the fact that the deep ideological divisions between the two sides have not been resolved, and are bound to influence decision making once again. Meanwhile, regional and international shifts which have taken place over the past few months, including the warming of ties between former Lebanon powerbrokers, Saudi Arabia and Syria; Syria’s slow-moving rapprochement with the United States and its close ties to France, may reduce the degree of foreign interference in Lebanese domestic affairs and allow Lebanon to begin to function as a fully sovereign and operational country in the longer term.

For now however, the incoming government faces huge challenges: a major legislative backlog; a dilapidated public sector in desperate need of reform and partial privatisation; a ballooning public debt (at US$47.93 billion); and a dire need for infrastructure investments, including in the ailing power sector that is in critical need of restructuring and at least partial privatisation among other things. The government will need to pick up the slack from five years of political deadlock triggered by the assassination of Hariri’s late father and former premier, Rafiq Hariri in February 2005. It will also face the existential question of Hizbollah’s huge arsenal, which the movement staunchly refuses to give up in the face of potential Israeli aggression. Not to mention of course, the issue of true unification and reconciliation between constantly antagonistic factions, something which remains elusive.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)