Record expansion was seen in the second quarter; good performance was observed across all sectors, especially agriculture.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: The stellar GDP expansion observed in the
second quarter responds to good performance across all sectors except mining,
but it is agriculture that leads the expansion, rebounding after last year's
droughts.
Implications: The agricultural sector, which represents
8.7% of overall GDP, advanced by 65%, contributing 5.6% to total growth.
Outlook: At IHS Global Insight, we expect the economy to
expand 8.2% in 2010 before decelerating to 5.2% in 2011.
According to the latest national accounts data released
by the Argentine statistical office, the economy jumped 11.8% year-on-year
(y/y) in the second quarter of 2010 and posted a 3.0% change with respect to
the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. Global demand was
propelled by an 18.1% advance in capital formation, with investment in plant
and equipment advancing 35.5% y/y and construction growing 8.1% y/y. Good
results were observed across the other categories. Government consumption
continues to be a growth engine, expanding 12.9% y/y, while household
consumption grew 8.1% y/y. Performance in the external sector raises some
concerns, with total imports jumping 35.6% y/y, while exports only did so by
18.2% y/y; nevertheless, the latter result is substantially better than the
4.2% expansion observed in the previous quarter. While the impact is not that
dramatic from the terms-of-trade perspective, the jump in imports confirms the
economic rebound, with important advances across all import categories, at the
expense of a shrinking trade surplus in the coming quarters.
The goods-producing sector advanced 18.3% y/y in the
second quarter thanks to a solid recovery in manufacturing activities (up 9.9%
y/y), and agriculture (up 65.0% y/y), the latter the result of a low comparison
base in 2009 when the sector suffered from adverse weather conditions. In fact,
agriculture retreated by 27.1% during the second quarter of 2009. The growth
rate in the service sector accelerated to 8.2% y/y, driven by advances in
transportation (up 11.3% y/y) and commercial activities (up 12.0% y/y), with
important contributions from other sectors. The advances observed in
manufacturing, commerce, and agriculture suggests that these labour-intensive
sectors will be increasing their demand for labour in the coming months,
improving the outlook for the overall economy.
According to the consumer confidence index (ICC) drawn up
by the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, confidence in August advanced 4.6% with
respect to July, while in annual terms, it remains 23.8% higher. Perceptions of
personal finances advanced 7.1% in August, while consumers' views about
macroeconomic conditions and timing for the purchase of durable and non-durable
goods advanced 2.4% and 4.0%, respectively. This suggests that household
expenditure should remain strong in the third quarter of 2010, good news
considering the negative impact coming from external accounts and weaker fiscal
position. A survey on consumers' inflation expectations for the coming 12-month
period shows that the median inflation expectation remains at 25.0% for August
2011, while the average expected inflation rate increased slightly to 32.8%.
Outlook and Implications
The economy is growing fast again. The strong economic
expansion observed in Argentina during 2003–08 called a short-lived truce in
2009, as deteriorating economic conditions worldwide took their toll on
Argentine exports and, later, on household consumption. Economic expectations
improved during the last quarter of 2009 because of an apparent change in
policymaking, and not even the removal of the central bank president in early
2010 without following proper procedure derailed the process. Some deceleration
in activity levels is expected in the second half of 2010, with the outlook for
2011 and beyond very much linked to the evolution of the global economy,
particularly Argentina's main trade partners. Returning to the financial market
is important for the government, but especially for companies located in
Argentina and for its provincial governments, which have suffered a lack of
financing sources since 2001. Improving the business climate under current
conditions would be a big plus for the economy. So far only a few provinces and
cities have issued new debt, with more to follow in the coming months. At IHS
Global Insight, we expect the economy to expand 8.2% in 2010 before
decelerating to 5.2% in 2011.
fecha |
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03/04/2011| |
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26/03/2011| |
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20/03/2011| |
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26/02/2011| |
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18/02/2011| |
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15/02/2011| |
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12/02/2011| |
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10/02/2011| |
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10/02/2011| |
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07/02/2011| |
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03/02/2011| |
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01/02/2011| |
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29/01/2011| |
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26/01/2011| |
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26/01/2011| |
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26/01/2011| |
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25/01/2011| |
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22/01/2011| |
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20/01/2011| |
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20/01/2011| |
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18/01/2011| |
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17/01/2011| |
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17/01/2011| |
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15/01/2011| |
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14/01/2011| |
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12/01/2011| |
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12/01/2011| |
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10/01/2011| |
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06/01/2011| |
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06/01/2011| |
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01/01/2011| |
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31/12/2010| |
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31/12/2010| |
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25/12/2010| |
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25/12/2010| |
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25/12/2010| |
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18/12/2010| |
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14/12/2010| |
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10/12/2010| |
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26/11/2010| |
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20/11/2010| |
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17/11/2010| |
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15/11/2010| |
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13/11/2010| |
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05/11/2010| |
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31/10/2010| |
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09/10/2010| |
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02/10/2010| |
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17/09/2010| |
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10/09/2010| |
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10/09/2010| |
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10/07/2010| |
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08/04/2010| |
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05/04/2010| |
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18/03/2010| |
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16/03/2010| |
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09/03/2010| |
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05/03/2010| |
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03/03/2010| |
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01/03/2010| |
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26/02/2010| |
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20/02/2010| |
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17/02/2010| |
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12/02/2010| |
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31/01/2010| |
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22/01/2010| |
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15/01/2010| |
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14/01/2010| |
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13/01/2010| |
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12/01/2010| |
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11/01/2010| |
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08/01/2010| |
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07/01/2010| |
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07/01/2010| |
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05/01/2010| |
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04/01/2010| |
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31/12/2009| |
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31/12/2009| |
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30/12/2009| |
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24/12/2009| |
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23/12/2009| |
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22/12/2009| |
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21/12/2009| |
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18/12/2009| |
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15/12/2009| |
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14/12/2009| |
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13/12/2009| |
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13/12/2009| |
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11/12/2009| |
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11/12/2009| |
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10/12/2009| |
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10/12/2009| |
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08/12/2009| |
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08/12/2009| |
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04/12/2009| |
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04/12/2009| |
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03/12/2009| |
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03/12/2009| |
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01/12/2009| |
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01/12/2009| |
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01/12/2009| |
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01/12/2009| |
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27/11/2009| |
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27/11/2009| |
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26/11/2009| |
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26/11/2009| |
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25/11/2009| |
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24/11/2009| |
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24/11/2009| |
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16/11/2009| |
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13/11/2009| |
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11/11/2009| |
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10/11/2009| |
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10/11/2009| |
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07/11/2009| |
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02/11/2009| |
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31/10/2009| |
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30/09/2009| |
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21/09/2009| |
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01/09/2009| |
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31/08/2009| |
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29/08/2009| |
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27/08/2009| |
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27/08/2009| |
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26/08/2009| |
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24/08/2009| |
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21/08/2009| |
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18/08/2009| |
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14/08/2009| |
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12/08/2009| |
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11/08/2009| |
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10/08/2009| |
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10/08/2009| |
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07/08/2009| |
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06/08/2009| |
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06/08/2009| |
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04/08/2009| |
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04/08/2009| |
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03/08/2009| |
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03/08/2009| |
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01/08/2009| |
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01/08/2009| |
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29/07/2009| |
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29/07/2009| |
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29/07/2009| |
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29/07/2009| |
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27/07/2009| |
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27/07/2009| |
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25/07/2009| |
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25/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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21/07/2009| |
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21/07/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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17/07/2009| |
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17/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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15/07/2009| |
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15/07/2009| |
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15/07/2009| |
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28/03/2009| |
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15/03/2009| |
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15/03/2009| |
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15/03/2009| |
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15/03/2009| |
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18/01/2009| |
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10/01/2009| |
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06/01/2009| |
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05/01/2009| |
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02/01/2009| |
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24/12/2008| |
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24/12/2008| |
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24/12/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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03/10/2008| |
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03/10/2008| |
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03/10/2008| |
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03/10/2008| |
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24/09/2008| |
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24/09/2008| |
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20/09/2008| |
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20/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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10/09/2008| |
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10/09/2008| |
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08/09/2008| |
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08/09/2008| |
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17/08/2008| |
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17/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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13/05/2008| |
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12/05/2008| |
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12/05/2008| |
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10/05/2008| |
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04/05/2008| |
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02/05/2008| |
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27/04/2008| |
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27/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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06/04/2008| |
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26/03/2008| |
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20/03/2008| |
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19/03/2008| |
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13/03/2008| |
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10/03/2008| |
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07/03/2008| |
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05/03/2008| |
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18/02/2008| |
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06/02/2008| |
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03/02/2008| |
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01/02/2008| |
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01/02/2008| |
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21/12/2007| |
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21/12/2007| |
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08/12/2007| |
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08/12/2007| |
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02/11/2007| |
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30/10/2007| |
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30/10/2007| |
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27/10/2007| |
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25/10/2007| |
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20/10/2007| |
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04/10/2007| |
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28/09/2007| |
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28/09/2007| |
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31/08/2007| |
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31/08/2007| |
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30/08/2007| |
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30/08/2007| |
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15/08/2007| |
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11/08/2007| |
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11/08/2007| |
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31/07/2007| |
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28/07/2007| |
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28/07/2007| |
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04/07/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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16/06/2007| |
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13/06/2007| |
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13/06/2007| |
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10/06/2007| |
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16/05/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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26/04/2007| |
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26/04/2007| |
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25/04/2007| |
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25/04/2007| |
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25/04/2007| |
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25/04/2007| |
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21/04/2007| |
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10/04/2007| |
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07/04/2007| |
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28/03/2007| |
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28/03/2007| |
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25/03/2007| |
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25/03/2007| |
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20/03/2007| |
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20/03/2007| |
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28/02/2007| |
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23/01/2007| |
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23/01/2007| |
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08/01/2007| |
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04/01/2007| |
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04/01/2007| |
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29/12/2006| |
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29/12/2006| |
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28/12/2006| |
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28/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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20/12/2006| |
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25/11/2006| |
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02/11/2006| |
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01/11/2006| |
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01/11/2006| |
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28/10/2006| |
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28/10/2006| |
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20/10/2006| |
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14/10/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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01/09/2006| |
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30/08/2006| |
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02/08/2006| |
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02/08/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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21/07/2006| |
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20/07/2006| |
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20/07/2006| |
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18/07/2006| |
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16/07/2006| |
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13/07/2006| |
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07/07/2006| |
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06/07/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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28/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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04/06/2006| |
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09/05/2006| |
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18/02/2006| |
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29/01/2006| |
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23/09/2005| |
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