Enhanced Security Precautions

Since the attacks of 11 September 2001 in the United States airport security has been greatly tightened, but the attempted suicide bombing on 25 December illustrated how there remain gaps both in physical security checks and in the systems for screening passengers against available intelligence. The United States and other countries have been scrambling to respond and offer reassurance to travellers. Latest developments concerning physical security at airports include the following:

• Citizens of 14 specified countries will face intense screening at airports worldwide before boarding flights bound for the United States. This is indefinite and covers Iran, Cuba, Sudan and Syria ("state sponsors of terrorism") as well as Afghanistan, Algeria, Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, and Yemen ("countries of interest"). Anyone flying through those countries will also face the tougher checks. There have already been complaints voiced that the new policies amount to racial profiling.
• The enhanced screening includes full-body pat-downs and additional scrutiny of carry-on bags. In more advanced airports, whole-body scanners will be used routinely on these passengers. The United Kingdom (where the bomber studied and may have been radicalised) and the Netherlands (where he boarded the Northwest Airlines flight) have already confirmed this move. The machines have already been utilised on a test basis, but have run into opposition over decency concerns.
• Security checks for other passengers bound for the United States will return to "normal" levels (they were escalated immediately after the attempted attack). This should ease some of the delays travellers have encountered over the festive period.

The incident has also illustrated how, despite the huge investment over the past decade, the U.S. intelligence agencies still fail to communicate effectively. Separate pieces of information about the would-be bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab were not linked; if they had he may well have been added to the no-fly list. The National Security Agency had intercepted al-Qaida communications several months back mentioning a Nigerian who was planning an attack, but this was not linked with warnings received by U.S. embassy officials from Abdulmutallab's father about his son's radicalisation. The administration will undoubtedly ramp up pressure on the intelligence community to address this weakness. Already hundreds more individuals from countries including Yemen and Nigeria have been added to watch lists instead of merely appearing in a terrorism database.

U.S. Administration Under Pressure

Predictably, the attempted bombing immediately prompted accusations that the Democratic administration is "weak on terrorism". Former vice-president Dick Cheney led the chorus last week, reviving a line that was frequently heard during the 2008 election build-up. The initial focus of criticism was Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, who asserted that the "system had worked". While she claims she was referring only to the security response to the incident, the fact that Abdulmutallab managed to board the flight with explosives and in spite of known radical associations drew scorn. Napolitano remains under pressure, but the administration has now toughened its rhetoric and signalled that it will pursue Abdulmutallab's associates in Yemen aggressively. Obama refused initially to be drawn on the Yemen link until firmer evidence was available. Obama also stated that although he has distanced himself from the last administration's term "war on terror", he is well aware that the "nation is at war against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred". He pointedly warned that instead of "succumbing to partisanship and division, let's summon the unity that this moment demands. Let's work together, with a seriousness of purpose, to do what must be done to keep our country safe." The attempting bombing has also attention back to the 5 November shooting in Texas' Fort Hood military installation that left 13 dead. That incident was initially viewed as an isolated act carried out by a mentally unstable individual, but links subsequently emerged to the same group accused over the airline plot. Both assailants are thought to have had some contact with Anwar al-Awlaki, the radical U.S.-born cleric active in Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (see below for more on this group). The administration ran into criticism when it initially refused to call the Fort Hood massacre a terrorist attack.

The administration has moved quickly to show it is closely engaged in Yemen. Intensive efforts there have been under way for some years (including strikes against suspects and training camps), but now the administration is keen to trumpet these. General David H. Petraeus, the U.S. regional commander, visited the Yemeni capital Sana'a on 2 January and delivered a personal message to President Ali Abdullah Saleh from Obama. Saleh is regarded as an ally in the fight against al-Qaida. The United Kingdom has meanwhile announced that it will host an international summit on 28 January focused on combating Islamic radicalisation in Yemen and improving airline security. This will take place alongside the already scheduled summit on the war effort in Afghanistan.

AQAP Springs to Global Prominence

As mentioned above, U.S. President Barack Obama has now placed blame for the airline plot squarely on Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). This is a regional arm of the international network, whose operations have primarily been based in Yemen. Previously, U.S. officials had previously confirmed that the attack had been planned in Yemen and that the failed bomber had spent several months in an al-Qaida training camp north of Sana'a, but they refrained from linking the bomber directly to AQAP. Obama vowed to hit back at the organisation, declaring in a radio address on Saturday (2 January) that "training camps had been struck, leaders eliminated and plots disrupted". The United States and other Western nations have already pledged to increase aid military and economic assistance to the country, which remains the most impoverished outside of Africa and has long been battling the rise of Islamic extremism. In the fiscal year 2010, U.S. aid to Yemen is expected to rise to US$63 million, up more than US$20 million from last year.

Increased U.S. activity in Yemen predates the failed bomb plot by several months, pledges having been made of greater funding and training assistance to Yemen's Special Forces, as well as increased intelligence sharing. The combined ground and air assaults on 17 and 24 of December were both supported by the United States, during which a total of 80 militants are believed to have been killed.  Such operations may play well in the United States, but within Yemen they were highly controversial and have stoked anti-U.S. feeling. A number of protests were seen over the alleged high civilian casualty rate. The backlash is a worrying foretaste of what is to come if U.S.-backed military operations are intensified. The situation bears comparison with U.S. attacks on militants in Pakistan, which have succeeded in eliminating key individuals, but risk creating a bigger problem through radicalisation and erosion of support for the national government when civilian casualties are incurred.

AQAP was born out of a merger between the Saudi and Yemeni branches of al-Qaida, the latter of which is now clearly dominant. A Yemeni heads the organisation and it is clear the Saudi branches have suffered as a result of repeated counter-insurgency operations by the Saudi authorities that proved successful in killing and capturing large number of militants. Al-Qaida has found the poorly policed Yemen a much easier place in which to conduct operations. Following the union, the group pledged to step up activities and from the offset its global jihadist orientation was clear. Although the Yemeni security forces, backed by more direct assistance from the United States and other Western countries, may manage to weaken the infrastructure of the group, defeating it and the appeal of its ideology in the tribal and lawless country is a much bigger challenge.

Embassy Closures

In addition to the longer-term security risks posed by Yemeni radicals, foreign governments are concerned about immediate threats to their citizens in the country. The U.S., British, and Japanese embassies have extended their closures, it was confirmed yesterday, and other embassies are expected to follow suit. In a Web site posting, the U.S. embassy in Sana'a said that the closure was due in part to ongoing threats posed by AQAP. Embassies and foreign interests in Yemen have repeatedly been targeted by the group; the heavily fortified U.S. embassy in particular has been attacked several times. The worst recent attack was seen in September 2008 when 17 people, one a U.S. citizen, were killed. Foreign citizens working in the oil and gas sector have also been targeted by the group, while the country's ailing tourism sector has been repeatedly hit by attacks on foreign visitors.

Outlook and Implications

Renewed international focus on Yemen is clearly required in the wake of the attempted attack, but efforts to fight al-Qaida militarily must be accompanied by simultaneous efforts to improve conditions for the country's population. Poverty alleviation, improved education, and better governance are all required to diminish the appeal of AQAP. Al-Qaida has strong roots in Yemen and its elimination is extremely difficult. For the regime itself, although al-Qaida has proven a major irritant, its chief preoccupations instead lie with the war in the far north against Iranian-backed Shi'a rebels and possible secession in the south. A fresh assault on al-Qaida could harm the Yemeni government, stirring up tensions and increasing the threat of terrorist reprisals. The United States and its partners need to tread carefully and resist some of the more "gung-ho" pressure back home.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)