Global Insight Perspective
Significance	The by-election in the Christian stronghold of Metn, which pitted Amin Gemayel, father of the assassinated industry minister, Pierre Gemayel, against Kamil Khoury—an ally of Hizbollah-backed Christian leader Michel Aoun—is seen as a crucial barometer of the upcoming presidential elections to replace President Emile Lahoud, whose mandate expires in November.
Implications	The outcome of the Metn poll, which saw Khoury narrowly beating Gemayel, will increase the factional infighting among Lebanese Christians that are vying for the presidency, which is traditionally reserved for a Maronite Christian.
Outlook	The battle for the leadership of the Christian community by pro- and anti-Syrian factions will now be waged at the presidential level as the country continues on a destructive path that has clouded its prospects in renewed uncertainty.

Lebanon’s Political Pulse

This weekend’s by-election to replace slain Lebanese MP Pierre Gemeyel provided an important test of the political pulse of Lebanon’s fractured Christian community, as the country heads towards presidential elections to replace incumbent Emile Lahoud. Amin Gemayel, former resident and patriarch of the Gemayel Maronite clan, failed to win the seat vacated by the assassination of his son Pierre in November 2006. Pierre Gemayel’s death and a mass walkout by all of Lebanon’s Shi’a ministers days before his assassination accelerated the country’s political descent into turmoil, disabling the government and rendering it powerless to address the raft of political, security, economic and administrative challenges that have embroiled Lebanon since the assassination in February 2005 of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.  Hariri’s death, which has been blamed on Syria, opened a new chapter of instability in Lebanon, creating a political and security vacuum that is being filled by rival factions and militia groups.

Yesterday’s vote in Metn, which was shrouded by accusations of voter irregularities in the Armenian stronghold of Bourjhamoud, brings Lebanese Christians to the front line of Lebanon’s political saga, which has so far largely pitted pro-Syrian supporters of the Shi’a Lebanese group, Hizbollah, against Sunni supporters of the Western-backed government of Prime Minister Fuad Seniora. The return of Michel Aoun, leader of the Free Patriotic Party (FPM), from more than a decade of exile in France, has shifted the dynamic among Lebanese Christians, creating divisions that were exposed during this weekend’s by-election. Aoun—always a wild card in Lebanese politics and a previous staunch critic of the late Syrian president, Hafez al-Asad—has, following his dramatic return from exile, proceeded to align himself with pro-Syrian elements in Lebanon, creating new fissures among the country’s already-weak Christian community.

The narrow victory this weekend of Aoun loyalist Kamil Khoury bolsters Aoun’s executive aspirations as the struggle for the presidency intensifies. The small margin of his victory will, however, stoke concerns of two rival administrations being established as the battle for the presidency threatens to engulf the country in yet another round of internal infighting, thus prolonging Lebanon’s chronic paralysis and indecision. Under Emile Lahoud, whose presidential mandate was extended under Syrian duress, in an event that is thought to have contributed to the Hariri assassination, the presidency became an instrument of Syrian control of Lebanon. The intensity over the battle for the presidency is driven by conflicting loyalties over Lebanon’s future relations with its former patron. Whoever occupies the presidential palace come September will be instrumental in determining the nature of Lebanon’s relations with Syria and, by extension, could help decide the future status of Hizbollah as it remains locked in a tense battle with the depleted Seniora government. Hizbollah, which was bolstered by its claimed victory over Israel during the July 2006 conflict, is demanding an expanded share of Lebanon’s political pie, a demand that has so far been resisted by Prime Minister Seniora. With his parliamentary majority being eaten away with the outcome of this weekend’s by-election—brought about by targeted assassinations of government loyalists—the Western-backed prime minister finds himself in an unenviable position as he faces the prospect of a presidency once again dominated by supporters of Syria. A small relief for Seniora was the widely expected outcome of the second by-election, which saw a prime-ministerial ally score a comfortable win.

Outlook and Implications

This weekend’s by-election in Metn will crystallise the divisions within Lebanon’s Christian community, underscoring a new fault line in a dangerously divided country. Fears that Lebanon is once again headed towards a new round of civil conflict, cancelling the hopes of national reconciliation and sectarian unity visible in post-war Lebanon, grow ever louder. The country’s irresponsible and divided leaders, preoccupied in their quest for political power and privileges, are powerless to prevent the unravelling of the political fabric that is taking place with seemingly unchecked vigour. The people of Lebanon, who still bear the raw scars of decades of civil conflict, deserve better.