Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz's sudden departure is being attributed to his desire to prepare for the forthcoming local elections in the capital, Warsaw; however, the timing of the PM's resignation means that yet another political crisis threatens to destabilise Poland.

Implications

Jaroslaw Kaczynski had insisted previously that he would refuse the premiership, should his twin become President. His appointment, expected to become official later today, will elicit yet another change in the government make-up and could well lead to increased public apathy with the twins firmly holding the reins of power in the country.

Outlook

Tensions can be expected as implications for economic reforms and government policy become more explicit; the appointment of Kaczynski as prime minister will concentrate immense political power with two members of the same family, a scenario unlikely to please either the opposition parties, or some within the ruling coalition.

Twins Lead Poland

Poland’s Prime Minister, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, announced his surprise resignation on Friday (7 July) and is expected to step down officially from his position today (10 July).,after just nine months. Although no official reason has been given for this move, it is thought that Marcinkiewicz wishes to concentrate on his preparations for local elections in the capital, Warsaw. Indeed, this is the only explanation offered so far by the man expected to take over as the new premier, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who is the current leader of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party as well as the twin brother of President Lech Kaczynski. "The victory of our candidate will allow the reform processes we have started in the country to be carried out at local level," he said.

Kaczynski's official nomination as prime minister is expected to be confirmed today. Marcinkiewicz has been one of the most popular Polish politicians; however, rumours of a rift between him and PiS leader Kaczynski have been widely circulated in the media recently. Kaczynski voiced surprise at Marcinkiewicz's decision last month to appoint the premier's economic adviser, Pawel Wojciechowski, as finance minister, replacing the liberal Zyta Gilowska, who was sacked amid accusations that she had lied about her alleged communist past. Agence France Presse (AFP) also refers to another incident, in which Marcinkiewicz drew criticism from close colleagues of Kaczynski for holding a one-on-one meeting last week with Donald Tusk, leader of the economically liberal Civic Platform (PO), the main opposition party, without informing senior PiS members. However, at a critical time for the party, such rumours are being played down by both Marcinkiewicz and Kaczynski.

New Finance Minister Appointed

PiS leader and Poland’s new prime minister has already announced who will take over from Pawel Wojciechowski as the new finance minister, barely two weeks after Wojciechowski was appointed by the outgoing PM. Deputy Finance Minister Stanislaw Kluza, who is a trained economist, will take over the ministry in the new cabinet. Kluza, a former chief economist for the major Polish bank BGZ, has already sought to reassure the public and the markets that he will continue reforms initiated by the current government. Jaroslaw Kaczynski also sought to assure markets of the stability of Poland's finances, following the change in the Finance Ministry; "We make every effort to preserve the positive trends in the economy: an increase in industrial production, in exports and growth, and the stability of the zloty," he was quoted as saying in AFP.

Deputy Prime Minister Roman Giertych, head of the ultra-Roman Catholic League of Polish Families (LPR), whose party—along with the populist Samoobrona—formed a coalition government with Law and Justice in May this year, has also stated that he wishes the coalition agreement to continue, despite the change in premiersip. The replacement of the finance minister is likely to be the only cabinet reshuffle effectuated by Kaczynski for the time being.

Outlook and Implications

Despite Marcinkiewicz’s initial insistence that he was in for the long haul, a change of prime minister had been widely expected, though the timing of the change has come as a surprise. It was a long-held belief that PiS leader Kaczynski had made way for the relatively unknown Marcinkiewicz so as not to jeopardise the presidential ambitions of his twin brother, Lech. At the time of the elections, he had insisted the Polish people would never see the two twins hold the two top political roles in the country. Although rumours of a power struggle within the ruling PiS are credible, emanating from Marcinkiewicz’s popularity with the public and his increasing desire for independence from the party fold, the claim that he has left to fight the PiS cause in the Warsaw local elections is also equally logical. Territorial elections are very important for the party and the position of Warsaw mayor is especially important; so far, the party had not nominated a candidate for the post Marcinkiewicz’s conservatism and ease in dealing with the media has made him a popular PiS politician and a good bet to win the elections.

The occupation of the two top posts in the country by the brothers is likely to cause further tensions within a political arena already beset with instability, and—by Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s own admission—could be a “major roadblock”. However, media reports say three other parties, deriving both from the anti-communist Solidarity movement and the former Communist party, have signalled that they will now form a coalition in order to counter the danger they claim the two brothers would pose for Poland's stability, according to the BBC. Jaroslaw Kaczynski will be Poland's 13th prime minister since 1989.

The choice of Kluza as finance minister, one of Kaczynski’s key allies, could become a potential cause for worry because of the new premier's left-leaning tendency, in contrast to the more economically liberal policies advocated by Marcinkiewicz. Far-right coalition partners of PiS may exert pressure on Kluza pertaining to government spending, and coalition tensions can already be foreseen on economic policy, despite attempts by Kluza to reassure alliance partners of a continuation in policy.

A detailed analysis of the prospects for the new government under Kaczynski will follow once his appointment has been finalised.

Raul Dary

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