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04/02/2006 | Geopolitical Tensions Rattle Oil Markets

Global Insight Staff

Oil prices have been increasingly volatile in recent weeks, as geopolitical concerns take center stage. Iran is likely to be a dominant and persistent theme throughout 2006, as the status of its nuclear program and corresponding oil production spur price volatility.

 

At present, Iran accounts for about 3.93 million barrels per day (2004 figures), or roughly 11% of OPEC output. However, Iran’s consumption of oil has increased in recent years and by extension, exports have fallen. At the January 31 OPEC meeting, the decision was made to keep current production levels in place; little attention was given to second-quarter guidance as the focus shifted to Iran. At $68/barrel, it is unlikely that OPEC will trim supply; current production levels should be sustained until prices decline.

In the second half of the year, the completion of refining maintenance and the addition of new supply indicate the potential for rising inventories. However, the expected capacity may not be sufficient to calm an increasingly tight market, with West Texas Intermediate spot prices currently hovering in the $66–67 range and futures prices above $55/barrel through 2008. Futures markets are largely based on existing conditions and expected outcomes, which should help guide expectations, but they remain an imperfect predictor of prices.

Fourth-quarter global demand was weaker than expected, largely a function of mild weather and temporary reductions to demand in Far Eastern countries. As expected, the latest data for the United States indicate that earlier estimates overstated the scale of demand reduction. September deliveries of both gasoline and diesel are now some 100,000 barrels per day (b/d) higher than previously thought.

Non-OPEC output was revised downward, as the recovery in the Gulf of Mexico is proving slower than anticipated, with some 0.3 million b/d of natural gas liquids production and 0.5 million b/d of crude oil still off-line. Production will show solid year-over-year growth during 2006, as the Gulf recovery continues and new non-OPEC fields come on-line. The former Soviet Union (FSU) has been the largest contributor of non-OPEC output growth in recent years, but slower FSU production growth is expected in 2006, while Africa will likely see the largest gains. OPEC-10 output remained around 28.2 million b/d in November; total OPEC output came in just under expectations, as Iraqi output remains inconsistent.

We still expect petroleum prices to erode over the medium term, albeit at a slower rate than previously thought. Global Insight has raised its price forecast to near $60/barrel through 2007. Elevated natural gas prices will also keep demand for oil strong. The entire energy complex remains elevated as supply remains off-line, growth in demand continues, and geopolitical instability is factored in.

U.S. gasoline consumption has been the subject of much debate. The most recent data cast doubt on the thesis of “demand destruction.” Weekly data for November point to a 1.4% year-over-year rise in deliveries, whereas the September data indicated a demand response to high prices. Supply looks to remain stretched despite the fact that stocks are in the middle of their historical range. When measured by forward cover, particularly in the face of potentially accelerating demand growth, the situation looks increasingly tight. Moreover, we are likely to encounter decreased refinery runs over the next few months, as both scheduled and delayed maintenance begin. 

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 



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