New Face

On 1 August, controversial former Danish prime minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen took over as secretary-general of NATO. Fogh Rasmussen is aided by a 12-member group of experts chaired by former U.S. secretary of state Madeleine Albright and the ex-chief executive officer (CEO) of Royal Dutch Shell, Jeroen van der Veer. Fogh Rasmussen's main task will be to chair NATO meetings and to devise and implement a new strategy for the organisation in time for its next summit in Lisbon (Portugal) in 2010. The new strategy must address the threats posed by climate change, disruptions to energy supply, Internet piracy, and terrorism.

Fogh Rasmussen has made no secret of the size of the task ahead. His predecessor, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, regularly criticised what he saw as a lack of willingness on the part of many Western countries to contribute manpower to NATO operations. Fogh Rasmussen is determined to boost NATO's ability to curb terrorism and resolve crises more effectively. Like de Hoop Scheffer, he has called on member states to pull their weight; in his words, "NATO will do its part but it cannot do it alone[…]this needs to be an international effort, both military and civilian."

To achieve his goals, Fogh Rasmussen is keen to make use of his diplomatic experience and high-level contacts in Europe and North America. He believes that NATO has to expand its co-operation with the European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN), and non-government organisations (NGOs). He has made conciliatory remarks towards stakeholders, without which NATO is unlikely to achieve its goals.

• Afghanistan: This remains a make-or-break challenge for NATO. For all the controversy it has engendered, the war in Iraq is officially over, but the NATO-led operations in Afghanistan are very much continuing. Over the past weeks there has been growing concern that troop levels in Afghanistan are too low to effectively conduct the anti-insurgency war that is needed to counter the Taliban. Fogh Rasmussen is calling in particular for the EU to send more troops. NATO currently commands around 64,000 troops in Afghanistan, of whom half are American. Arguing that the NATO mission in Afghanistan is beginning to resemble a U.S.-only mission, he stated that co-ordination with other international organisations, such as the UN, "must expand". Whereas the United States has revamped its Afghanistan effort by sending in more than 20,000 additional troops to provide security for the upcoming presidential election, other countries have been less forthcoming. Fogh Rasmussen also ruled out a timetable for the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, saying that NATO's top priority there is to enable the Afghan state to provide its own security.

• European Union: Fogh Rasmussen will draw extensively on his network of contacts that he built up over years of representing Denmark at European summits. The prospects for NATO-EU collaboration are more promising now thanks to France's return to the NATO fold earlier this year. The country remains a very influential force in EU politics, with considerable experience in peacekeeping operations. However, the ongoing conflict over the island of Cyprus could prove a major stumbling block to greater EU involvement in NATO: the dispute between the Greek and Turkish governments over the divided island has often hindered the exchange of sensitive information between EU and NATO officials. Hence, Fogh Rasmussen must walk a tightrope and provide assurances to the Greek, Turkish, and two Cypriot governments if he wants to get the EU on board.

• North Africa and Middle East: Ties between the Danish government and many governments of predominantly Muslim countries remain tense following the publication of cartoons of the prophet Muhammad in Danish newspapers during 2005. As the Danish prime minister at the time, Fogh Rasmussen in particular came in for heavy criticism from many governments for his failure to restrain the Danish newspapers or to apologise for the episode. As NATO head, he must now build relations with the 11 partner states of NATO in North Africa and the Middle East (Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Mauritania, Morocco, Qatar, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates). The Turkish government will be particularly anxious to see how he fares on this front; Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gül put their own reputations on the line with key partners in the Middle East and North Africa by backing the nomination of Fogh Rasmussen earlier this year.

• Russia: Fogh Rasmussen is determined to improve ties with the Russian government after relations deteriorated over the Russian-Georgian war of 2008. A window of opportunity has been open since earlier this year, and Fogh Rasmussen now wants to make the most of it. However, the status of Georgia and Ukraine, two former Soviet countries that want to join NATO despite the Russian government's objections, remains a major bone of contention. The new secretary-general has carefully approached the subject by stating that the two countries can indeed join the organisation if they fulfil the relevant criteria. Yet, he stressed that there is enough scope for NATO and the Russian government to work together, notably on Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism. Hence, the dispute over Ukraine's and Georgia's NATO membership ambitions should not "poison the entire relationship". Furthermore, presumably in a gesture of goodwill to Serbia and its key ally Russia, NATO is set to reduce its 14,000-strong force in Kosovo by 10,000 soldiers in the coming few years. In a bid to keep anxious member states on board, Fogh Rasmussen has pledged that the 10,000 soldiers will not automatically be stationed in Afghanistan.

Outlook and Implications

Fogh Rasmussen must now put his words into action, which is likely to be a slow, drawn-out process. Indeed, his call for an increased contribution from European NATO member states to operations in Afghanistan comes at a time of declining support in many EU countries for this mission. Casualties of international troops in Afghanistan peaked last month at 77, the highest figure since coalition forces began operations there in late 2001. This has come amid a surge in activity from international forces in a desperate attempt to provide security ahead of the presidential election in areas that have been under the control of the Taliban over previous years. Meanwhile, the 11 North African and Middle Eastern partner countries will not be easily won over by Fogh Rasmussen's olive branch. The moderate governments have a lot at stake, with conservative, staunchly Muslim parties breathing down their necks, and they may call for more concessions from Fogh Rasmussen and a different approach to NATO operations in countries with predominantly Muslim populations before taking Fogh Rasmussen up on his offer.

As for Russia, the government is listening carefully to what the new secretary-general has to say. Although no official reaction has yet been heard, the amount of coverage by state-dependent media of Fogh Rasmussen's speech suggests that it will have gone down very well with the government. After all, for all the war-mongering and talk of "spheres of influence", there is also a genuine trend towards making Russia a recognised and respected international partner rather than a formidable outcast. The Russian government is likely to try to make some political capital out of Fogh Rasmussen's initiatives, but this is mostly intended for domestic consumption and hence is unlikely to worry the new secretary-general too much. In terms of business, Russia now hopes that the NATO membership claims by the post-Soviet states will be consigned to history and that it will obtain a stronger voice as regards key security operations globally. Since Russia is not a NATO member, nor intends to become one, its ultimate goal is to see NATO replaced with a bigger international security organisation, at least on the European scale, of which it will be a fully fledged member.

In light of the different interests of key stakeholders, a more inclusive approach to fighting terrorism is certainly sensible. This may slow the process down, but Fogh Rasmussen appears to have concluded that this is the best way to approach the issue. He is willing to listen to others but is not afraid to take uncomfortable decisions, as his record as Danish prime minister shows.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)