Taiwan's economy staged a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2010, higher than the preliminary figure, as all drivers continued to steam ahead.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: GDP in real terms rose 6.9% on the year in
the three months through December, after climbing by a revised 10.7% in the
previous quarter. In seasonally adjusted terms, the economy grew by a virtually
flat rate of 0.01% (annualised), slowing from the revised growth of 3.2% in the
previous quarter. For 2010 as a whole, real GDP growth came in at 10.8%,
marking the strongest reading in 24 years.
Implications: Taiwan's economy continued to thrive on
both foreign and domestic demand. Global demand in the key high-tech sector
further bolstered exports, while abundant liquidity and buoyant sentiment
continued to underpin domestic spending.
Outlook:The economy's expansion is carrying on, although
moderation in growth, as seen in previous quarters, will continue in quarters
ahead on the back of unfavourable base effects and external uncertainty. IHS
Global Insight expects the economy to grow 4.9% for 2011.
Upward Revision from Preliminary Figures
Taiwan has reported a faster-than-expected expansion in
the economy for the fourth quarter of 2010, according to final data released
yesterday by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics. The
results show that the economy continued to expand at a healthy rate as strong
high-tech demand ahead of the holiday season powered export growth, while
strengthening economic activities, higher earnings, and an improving labour
market helped boost business and consumer sentiment. Nevertheless, moderation
in momentum has continued since reaching the strongest level of growth in more
than three decades in the first quarter. GDP in real terms rose 6.9%
year-on-year (y/y) in the three months through December, higher than the
preliminary estimate for 6.5% announced at end-January, and the fifth straight
quarter of expansion since the island came out of the recession. This
represented a slowdown, however, from the revised 10.7% expansion posted in the
previous quarter. In seasonally adjusted terms, the economy barely moved, with
a mere 0.01% quarter-on-quarter (q/q, annualised rate) gain recorded in the
December quarter, easing from a revised 3.2% increase in the previous quarter.
It marked the lowest gain in seven quarters. For 2010 as a whole, the economy
rose 10.8%, representing the fastest growth since 1986.
Demand for High-Tech Products Continues to Boost Exports
Exports have remained at the driver's seat leading the
island's impressive recovery, as global appetite for high-tech products has
stayed robust. In particular, sales to the United States and China have
remained surprisingly strong, thanks to demand ahead and during the holiday
seasons. Exports of goods and services edged up 14.9% y/y during the three
months through December, following a 20.5% jump in the previous quarter. In q/q
annualised terms, total exports rose 5.4%, accelerating from a mere 0.32% gain
recorded in the previous quarter. Exports have been fuelled by demand from the
neighbouring economies, as China's strong revival has been propelling regional trade
flows. The island has particularly benefitted from this trend as warmer
relations with China have helped to lift bilateral business activities, while
the relaxation of tourism restrictions also prompted the influx of mainland
visitors. In addition, despite still-lagging consumption, high-tech demand from
the advanced economies, particularly the United States, has been rebounding at
a stronger-than-expected pace. That said, export growth has moderated since the
second quarter as the base effect turned less favourable. Meanwhile, imports
rose 14.4% y/y in the December quarter, slowing from the 22.3% surge seen in
the previous quarter. The continued expansion in imports reflects improving
domestic demand, fuelled especially by demand for capital goods. Net exports
contributed 2.6 percentage points to GDP growth in the December quarter, up
from 1.9 percentage points in the previous quarter.
Domestic Demand Stays Buoyant
The impetus generated by external demand has continued to
encourage domestic drivers to steam ahead. Business spending, though moderated,
maintained double-digit growth during the three months through December, as
still-brisk export orders, in particular for high-tech products, have prompted
companies to expand production capacity. Total gross fixed-capital formation
rose 13% y/y in the December quarter, after jumping 24.6% in the previous
quarter. Private investment continued to provide the key impetus, up 17.8%,
although it slowed sharply from the 35.6% surge in the previous quarter. Orders
outsourced from the world's leading high-tech companies have prompted Taiwanese
companies to expand production and spending. In addition, abundant liquidity
and warming cross-Strait relations have also contributed to the increase in
business spending. However, momentum was somewhat shed by higher uncertainty
and a less favourable base effect. Meanwhile, investment by the government and
public enterprises rose in the December quarter by 6.9% and 1.5%, respectively,
reversing the 5.7% and 0.46% contraction in the previous quarter. Concurrently,
the labour market has continued to improve noticeably as business has stepped
up on hiring. Along with ample liquidity and strengthening economic prospects,
these have buoyed consumer confidence and spending. Private consumption rose
2.9% y/y in the December quarter, although it moderated from the revised 4.6%
expansion in the previous quarter.
Outlook and Implications
Final GDP figures confirm with the latest string of data
that the island finished 2010 with stronger-than-expected momentum. The results
bode well for the economy as the pace should be carried through into 2011,
although the economy's momentum has been moderating despite still strong growth
rates, with further tempering in growth still expected during the year. This is
more evident in the seasonally adjusted annualised rates. Being one of the
worst affected economies during the global economic crisis, the economy's strong
recovery has been partly inflated by the low comparison base in the
corresponding period a year earlier. With the favourable base effects turning
unfavourable, it will serve as the restraining factor on growth rate ahead.
Concurrently, the economy's strong performance is clear evidence of the
island's heavy reliance on external demand, in particular of the fast-growing
importance of the Chinese market. With China's policy adjustment raising
concerns that it might take a toll on its economic growth and demand, the
island's exports are unlikely to repeat the strong performance seen in 2010. In
addition, higher inflationary pressure across the region raises the risks for
regional trade flows, as policymakers attempt to tackle the problem with
tighter monetary policy. While the strength of the New Taiwan dollar is
threatening the island's export competitiveness, the unresolved concerns over
the European sovereign debt woes have continued to weigh on the world economic
outlook. On balance, IHS Global Insight projects the economy to grow by 4.9% in
2011.
fecha |
Título |
03/04/2011| |
|
26/03/2011| |
|
20/03/2011| |
|
26/02/2011| |
|
18/02/2011| |
|
15/02/2011| |
|
12/02/2011| |
|
10/02/2011| |
|
10/02/2011| |
|
07/02/2011| |
|
03/02/2011| |
|
01/02/2011| |
|
29/01/2011| |
|
26/01/2011| |
|
26/01/2011| |
|
26/01/2011| |
|
25/01/2011| |
|
22/01/2011| |
|
20/01/2011| |
|
20/01/2011| |
|
18/01/2011| |
|
18/01/2011| |
|
17/01/2011| |
|
17/01/2011| |
|
15/01/2011| |
|
14/01/2011| |
|
12/01/2011| |
|
12/01/2011| |
|
10/01/2011| |
|
06/01/2011| |
|
06/01/2011| |
|
01/01/2011| |
|
31/12/2010| |
|
31/12/2010| |
|
25/12/2010| |
|
25/12/2010| |
|
25/12/2010| |
|
18/12/2010| |
|
14/12/2010| |
|
10/12/2010| |
|
26/11/2010| |
|
26/11/2010| |
|
20/11/2010| |
|
17/11/2010| |
|
17/11/2010| |
|
17/11/2010| |
|
15/11/2010| |
|
13/11/2010| |
|
13/11/2010| |
|
12/11/2010| |
|
12/11/2010| |
|
05/11/2010| |
|
04/11/2010| |
|
04/11/2010| |
|
31/10/2010| |
|
09/10/2010| |
|
02/10/2010| |
|
02/10/2010| |
|
17/09/2010| |
|
10/09/2010| |
|
10/09/2010| |
|
10/07/2010| |
|
10/07/2010| |
|
08/04/2010| |
|
05/04/2010| |
|
18/03/2010| |
|
17/03/2010| |
|
16/03/2010| |
|
09/03/2010| |
|
09/03/2010| |
|
05/03/2010| |
|
05/03/2010| |
|
04/03/2010| |
|
03/03/2010| |
|
01/03/2010| |
|
26/02/2010| |
|
26/02/2010| |
|
24/02/2010| |
|
23/02/2010| |
|
22/02/2010| |
|
20/02/2010| |
|
20/02/2010| |
|
17/02/2010| |
|
17/02/2010| |
|
16/02/2010| |
|
15/02/2010| |
|
12/02/2010| |
|
11/02/2010| |
|
10/02/2010| |
|
09/02/2010| |
|
08/02/2010| |
|
05/02/2010| |
|
04/02/2010| |
|
04/02/2010| |
|
04/02/2010| |
|
02/02/2010| |
|
01/02/2010| |
|
31/01/2010| |
|
31/01/2010| |
|
22/01/2010| |
|
21/01/2010| |
|
20/01/2010| |
|
19/01/2010| |
|
19/01/2010| |
|
15/01/2010| |
|
14/01/2010| |
|
13/01/2010| |
|
12/01/2010| |
|
11/01/2010| |
|
08/01/2010| |
|
07/01/2010| |
|
07/01/2010| |
|
05/01/2010| |
|
04/01/2010| |
|
31/12/2009| |
|
31/12/2009| |
|
30/12/2009| |
|
24/12/2009| |
|
23/12/2009| |
|
22/12/2009| |
|
21/12/2009| |
|
18/12/2009| |
|
17/12/2009| |
|
16/12/2009| |
|
15/12/2009| |
|
15/12/2009| |
|
14/12/2009| |
|
14/12/2009| |
|
13/12/2009| |
|
13/12/2009| |
|
11/12/2009| |
|
11/12/2009| |
|
10/12/2009| |
|
10/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
08/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
04/12/2009| |
|
03/12/2009| |
|
03/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
01/12/2009| |
|
27/11/2009| |
|
27/11/2009| |
|
26/11/2009| |
|
26/11/2009| |
|
25/11/2009| |
|
25/11/2009| |
|
24/11/2009| |
|
24/11/2009| |
|
23/11/2009| |
|
23/11/2009| |
|
22/11/2009| |
|
22/11/2009| |
|
16/11/2009| |
|
16/11/2009| |
|
13/11/2009| |
|
13/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
11/11/2009| |
|
10/11/2009| |
|
10/11/2009| |
|
07/11/2009| |
|
06/11/2009| |
|
04/11/2009| |
|
04/11/2009| |
|
02/11/2009| |
|
31/10/2009| |
|
30/10/2009| |
|
29/10/2009| |
|
28/10/2009| |
|
27/10/2009| |
|
21/10/2009| |
|
21/10/2009| |
|
19/10/2009| |
|
15/10/2009| |
|
14/10/2009| |
|
13/10/2009| |
|
12/10/2009| |
|
09/10/2009| |
|
09/10/2009| |
|
07/10/2009| |
|
06/10/2009| |
|
05/10/2009| |
|
02/10/2009| |
|
01/10/2009| |
|
01/10/2009| |
|
01/10/2009| |
|
30/09/2009| |
|
30/09/2009| |
|
21/09/2009| |
|
19/09/2009| |
|
17/09/2009| |
|
16/09/2009| |
|
15/09/2009| |
|
14/09/2009| |
|
12/09/2009| |
|
12/09/2009| |
|
12/09/2009| |
|
10/09/2009| |
|
09/09/2009| |
|
08/09/2009| |
|
07/09/2009| |
|
05/09/2009| |
|
04/09/2009| |
|
03/09/2009| |
|
02/09/2009| |
|
01/09/2009| |
|
31/08/2009| |
|
29/08/2009| |
|
27/08/2009| |
|
27/08/2009| |
|
26/08/2009| |
|
24/08/2009| |
|
21/08/2009| |
|
20/08/2009| |
|
19/08/2009| |
|
18/08/2009| |
|
17/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
|
12/08/2009| |
|
12/08/2009| |
|
11/08/2009| |
|
11/08/2009| |
|
10/08/2009| |
|
10/08/2009| |
|
07/08/2009| |
|
07/08/2009| |
|
06/08/2009| |
|
06/08/2009| |
|
05/08/2009| |
|
05/08/2009| |
|
04/08/2009| |
|
04/08/2009| |
|
03/08/2009| |
|
03/08/2009| |
|
01/08/2009| |
|
01/08/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
27/07/2009| |
|
27/07/2009| |
|
25/07/2009| |
|
25/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
23/07/2009| |
|
21/07/2009| |
|
21/07/2009| |
|
20/07/2009| |
|
20/07/2009| |
|
17/07/2009| |
|
17/07/2009| |
|
16/07/2009| |
|
16/07/2009| |
|
16/07/2009| |
|
15/07/2009| |
|
15/07/2009| |
|
15/07/2009| |
|
28/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
18/01/2009| |
|
10/01/2009| |
|
06/01/2009| |
|
05/01/2009| |
|
02/01/2009| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
24/09/2008| |
|
24/09/2008| |
|
20/09/2008| |
|
20/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
18/09/2008| |
|
10/09/2008| |
|
10/09/2008| |
|
08/09/2008| |
|
08/09/2008| |
|
17/08/2008| |
|
17/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
13/05/2008| |
|
12/05/2008| |
|
12/05/2008| |
|
10/05/2008| |
|
04/05/2008| |
|
02/05/2008| |
|
27/04/2008| |
|
27/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
06/04/2008| |
|
26/03/2008| |
|
20/03/2008| |
|
19/03/2008| |
|
13/03/2008| |
|
10/03/2008| |
|
07/03/2008| |
|
05/03/2008| |
|
18/02/2008| |
|
06/02/2008| |
|
03/02/2008| |
|
01/02/2008| |
|
01/02/2008| |
|
21/12/2007| |
|
21/12/2007| |
|
08/12/2007| |
|
08/12/2007| |
|
02/11/2007| |
|
30/10/2007| |
|
30/10/2007| |
|
27/10/2007| |
|
25/10/2007| |
|
20/10/2007| |
|
04/10/2007| |
|
28/09/2007| |
|
28/09/2007| |
|
31/08/2007| |
|
31/08/2007| |
|
30/08/2007| |
|
30/08/2007| |
|
15/08/2007| |
|
11/08/2007| |
|
11/08/2007| |
|
31/07/2007| |
|
28/07/2007| |
|
28/07/2007| |
|
04/07/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
30/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
16/06/2007| |
|
13/06/2007| |
|
13/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
10/06/2007| |
|
16/05/2007| |
|
16/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
03/05/2007| |
|
30/04/2007| |
|
30/04/2007| |
|
26/04/2007| |
|
26/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
25/04/2007| |
|
21/04/2007| |
|
21/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
19/04/2007| |
|
10/04/2007| |
|
10/04/2007| |
|
07/04/2007| |
|
07/04/2007| |
|
04/04/2007| |
|
04/04/2007| |
|
02/04/2007| |
|
02/04/2007| |
|
01/04/2007| |
|
28/03/2007| |
|
28/03/2007| |
|
25/03/2007| |
|
25/03/2007| |
|
20/03/2007| |
|
20/03/2007| |
|
28/02/2007| |
|
23/01/2007| |
|
23/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
08/01/2007| |
|
06/01/2007| |
|
06/01/2007| |
|
04/01/2007| |
|
04/01/2007| |
|
29/12/2006| |
|
29/12/2006| |
|
28/12/2006| |
|
28/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
26/12/2006| |
|
20/12/2006| |
|
20/12/2006| |
|
20/12/2006| |
|
20/12/2006| |
|
16/12/2006| |
|
16/12/2006| |
|
16/12/2006| |
|
16/12/2006| |
|
15/12/2006| |
|
15/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
14/12/2006| |
|
12/12/2006| |
|
12/12/2006| |
|
12/12/2006| |
|
12/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
11/12/2006| |
|
09/12/2006| |
|
09/12/2006| |
|
02/12/2006| |
|
02/12/2006| |
|
02/12/2006| |
|
02/12/2006| |
|
25/11/2006| |
|
25/11/2006| |
|
23/11/2006| |
|
23/11/2006| |
|
22/11/2006| |
|
22/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
21/11/2006| |
|
11/11/2006| |
|
11/11/2006| |
|
02/11/2006| |
|
01/11/2006| |
|
01/11/2006| |
|
28/10/2006| |
|
28/10/2006| |
|
28/10/2006| |
|
28/10/2006| |
|
20/10/2006| |
|
20/10/2006| |
|
20/10/2006| |
|
20/10/2006| |
|
14/10/2006| |
|
14/10/2006| |
|
07/10/2006| |
|
07/10/2006| |
|
07/10/2006| |
|
05/10/2006| |
|
04/10/2006| |
|
04/10/2006| |
|
04/10/2006| |
|
04/10/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
23/09/2006| |
|
06/09/2006| |
|
04/09/2006| |
|
04/09/2006| |
|
02/09/2006| |
|
02/09/2006| |
|
02/09/2006| |
|
01/09/2006| |
|
30/08/2006| |
|
02/08/2006| |
|
02/08/2006| |
|
30/07/2006| |
|
30/07/2006| |
|
27/07/2006| |
|
27/07/2006| |
|
21/07/2006| |
|
20/07/2006| |
|
20/07/2006| |
|
18/07/2006| |
|
16/07/2006| |
|
13/07/2006| |
|
12/07/2006| |
|
12/07/2006| |
|
07/07/2006| |
|
07/07/2006| |
|
06/07/2006| |
|
29/06/2006| |
|
29/06/2006| |
|
29/06/2006| |
|
29/06/2006| |
|
28/06/2006| |
|
26/06/2006| |
|
26/06/2006| |
|
21/06/2006| |
|
21/06/2006| |
|
20/06/2006| |
|
20/06/2006| |
|
04/06/2006| |
|
09/05/2006| |
|
03/05/2006| |
|
03/05/2006| |
|
03/05/2006| |
|
03/05/2006| |
|
18/02/2006| |
|
04/02/2006| |
|
04/02/2006| |
|
29/01/2006| |
|
23/09/2005| |
|