Frustration Mounts, U.S. Commits to Record Aid Operation in Haiti

Devastated Haiti, now looking at an estimated death toll of 50,000, according to the Haitian Red Cross, is growing desperate as international aid progress slows. According to Reuters, Shaul Schwarz, a photographer on assignment for TIME magazine, has reported that people have started to form roadblocks with dead bodies in protest at the delay in Haiti's capital, Port-au-Prince, and was quoted as saying "it's getting ugly out there, people are fed up with getting no help". A huge earthquake measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale hit the country four days ago, spreading chaos and distress, but the worst is yet to come. Haiti's deficient infrastructure, fragile political system, and poor security outlook before the quake are now in serious peril as the political vacuum is becoming evident. While President René Préval has made a few statements, it is obvious that his weak and poorly co-ordinated government is unable to handle the crisis. Government officials are nowhere to be seen, while the natural disaster reveals Haiti's lack of domestic governance. The United States has committed to its largest relief effort in recent history, with U.S. president Barack Obama assuring Haitians that they "will not be forgotten" and pledging US$100 million in aid. Despite the welcome news, however, Haitians on the ground are growing increasingly anxious as international aid is taking some time to reach them. Given the huge task ahead the United States needs time to co-ordinate this massive aid operation. Logistical bottlenecks abound: the main sea port through which aid can be delivered has been severely damaged and the main roads that run into Port-au-Prince are inaccessible. The U.S. authorities seem to be in control of Haiti's small single airport, which is the main entry point for the desperately needed relief supplies. Yesterday, planes carrying international aid supplies spent hours circling while waiting for permission to land, while several had to go to the neighbouring Dominican Republic, from where aid workers are hoping to reach Haiti by land. The U.S. Federal Aviation Authority temporarily banned all civilian flights into the Caribbean country until the congestion was cleared. Frustration is growing on all sides, while the question that many are beginning to ask is, who is now going to be in charge of poverty-stricken, decimated Haiti?

Security Risk Increases in the Short Term

Before the earthquake, Haiti was considered by many a failed state. Its modest recovery last year after the 2008 hurricane season did little to overcome the existing challenges on the political, economic, operational, and security fronts. In the aftermath of the quake IHS Global Insight downgraded Haiti's Operational Risk Rating and is currently reassessing its Economic Risk Rating, and the prospect of a worsening security situation in the short term now warrants a downgrade in its Security Risk Rating. In the short term, the risk of looting and crime is rising, exacerbated by the fact that Haiti's main prison in Port-au-Prince has collapsed, allowing inmates to flee. The UN peacekeeping mission, MINUSTAH, in charge of providing basic security before the tremor, has suffered severe casualties and its headquarters have been destroyed. The mission's chief, Hedi Annabi, and his main deputy, Luis Carlos da Costa, died in the disaster and so far 36 UN casualties have been confirmed, while at least a hundred of its personnel remain unaccounted for. According to the UN, Haiti's national police have "simply vanished", plunging the country into lawlessness and chaos. A UN official described how people are "slowly getting more angry and impatient", tension that could be translated into serious anarchy if international military aid is not deployed quickly. The lack of strong domestic governance is also only too clear in the disaster's wake. Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive, sworn in in November 2009 to replace ousted prime minister Michèle Pierre-Louis (who had only been in office for a year seems unable to cope with the crisis, his short and sporadic statements after the disaster mirroring President Préval's impassivity. With controversial legislative elections due on 28 February political risk could also mount during the coming weeks. Chances of this happening are increasing after ousted president Jean-Bertrand Aristide, obliged to step down after a bloody army rebellion broke out in February 2004, today announced his willingness to return to Haiti. Aristide left power when the United States and France put pressure on him to go into exile, and his party, Fanmi Lavalas, with strong support in Haiti's shantytowns, has been prevented from participating in the February legislative polls. If the ousted leader, currently in exile in South Africa, comes back, his presence could deliver a new blow to the country's brittle political stability.

The expected rise in domestic insecurity in the short term could, however, be tempered if the U.S. response, and that of other international players, is substantial, speedy, and efficient. Military aid and the UN peacekeeping force on the ground will have to be dramatically strengthened; only then might the security outlook be improved.

Brazil, U.S., and France to Decide Haiti's Future

So it is that the United States, a nation that has donated important amounts of foreign aid and has played a semi-protectorate role in various guises in Haiti since 1915 (it was involved as recently as 2004, when Aristide was removed from power) is now the nation that has decided to step in fully to solve Haiti's woes. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's claim yesterday that "the United States will provide long-term assistance to help Haiti" raises questions about the future role for the United States in the impoverished nation. Historical ties, added to geographical proximity and the important presence of Haitian communities in the United States, make their powerful northern neighbour the main source of hope for the Haitian public. So far, French president Nicolas Sarkozy has confirmed the calling of an urgent conference with Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Obama to decide Haiti's future. The conference, in which Canada will also be present, will set out the reconstruction and development strategy for Haiti's nine million people. Brazil, in charge of the 9,000-strong MINUSTAH, is the biggest contributor to the UN peacekeeping mission, with 1,266 soldiers. This conference will serve as much to plan Haiti's recovery as to consolidate Brazil's leadership in the region. It will also serve to establish once and for all a U.S. presence in Haiti, something that might come as a challenge given the expensive U.S. operations in other countries, such as Afghanistan and Iraq.

Outlook and Implications

The U.S. decision to show early and long-term commitment in Haiti also signals a potential recovery in the long term. Nonetheless, risks in the short term abound, ranging from the difficulties faced by international aid coming into the country, to Haitians' increasing desperation and anger, a lack of domestic response and co-ordination from the Haitian government, and a dearth of proper policing and security forces on the ground. While security is expected to deteriorate during the coming weeks, it is expected to improve in the mid-to-long term as MINUSTAH is strengthened and the United States, Brazil, France, and Canada set a long-term strategy for recovery. In the meantime IHS Global Insight will monitor developments closely.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)