Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The United States and Japan are spearheading efforts to implement a punitive international response to the missile launch, which was undertaken despite repeated international warnings on the issue.

Implications

The possibility of reaching agreement on a unified international response within the framework of the UN remains marred by problems, as the nations that participated in the earlier six-party talks have widely differing agendas.

Outlook

The imposition of economic sanctions hinges to a great degree on the policy course of China and Russia, which are threatening to veto resolutions calling for such sanctions. However, China must defer to considerations of both domestic stability and the maintenance of good relations with the United States.

More Missile Tests in the Offing?

As expected, the international community has shown itself to be divided on the issue of co-ordinating a unified response to North Korea's launch of seven missiles yesterday, including the long-range Taepodong-2 missile (see North Korea: 5 July 2006: International Tension Builds as North Korean Government Test-Fires Long-Range Missile). The international community is currently mulling an appropriate response to the launch, as the UN Security Council has convened for emergency sessions and the United States and Japan press ahead for the imposition of financial sanctions against the Stalinist regime.

Meanwhile, the Kim Jong-Il regime has declared the audacious test-launch a success, stating that it was part of "normal military exercises that were aimed at reinforcing self-defence capabilities”, according to the Korean Central News Agency. North Korean authorities have warned that the Pyongyang government would retaliate against any efforts by the international community to impose restrictions on its missile tests by “taking even stronger physical measures of other types”. The possibility of further launches was confirmed today by South Korean defence minister Yoon Kwang-ung, who cited analysis of equipment and personnel at the North Korean launch site. Another three or four missiles are currently reported to be on the launch pads, but none of them are believed to be long-range missiles, according to the BBC.

The missile test has been a measure to put maximum political pressure on the United States, as part of the Stalinist regime’s brinkmanship diplomacy to force the Washington government to conduct direct negotiations with it regarding its nuclear programme; the six-party talks on the issue have been at an impasse since November 2005, with North Korea demanding that the United States lifts economic sanctions relating to the regime’s alleged counterfeiting activity before it returns to negotiations. The U.S. administration remains unwilling to budge from its view that the economic sanctions must be seen as separate from the stalled six-party talks, but now faces the challenge of rallying international support for an effective response, in order for the administration of President George W Bush to retain legitimacy and secure his legacy, after issuing several threats over the issue and designating North Korea as part of the notorious ‘Axis of Evil’ back in 2002.

A Divided International Response

The UN Security Council is currently considering a draft resolution in response to the launches. The United States and Japan are spearheading efforts to impose harsh measures, but significant divisions remain between the different participants in the six-party talks, which will complicate taking measures within a UN framework:

United States: The Washington government has gone on the diplomatic counter-offensive since the missile launches, seeking to raise international support and act in concert with the other six-party nations; however, it has only received the complete backing of Japan for economic sanctions so far. President Bush continues to rule out the option of direct bilateral negotiations with the Kim Jong-Il regime. Although U.S. military action has generally been ruled out as a response, the missile tests constitute a significant security challenge for the Bush administration, and the pursuit of a multilateral approach testifies to the fact that the U.S. government has little interest in becoming bogged down in yet another nuclear crisis, as it already has its hands full with the Iranian nuclear crisis and the occupation of Iraq.

Japan: A long-term U.S. ally and one of the most vulnerable nations to the North Korean missile launches, the Japanese government, under Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, has pushed for a stern response, including economic sanctions. Japan immediately imposed sanctions by barring North Korean ships from docking in its ports, and also imposed a travel ban on North Korean officials. Moreover, additional sanctions are in the pipeline, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe stating that the country is willing to enact any kind of sanctions, including economic and financial measures, to restrain North Korea. This has been backed up by the lower house of the Diet moving last month to ratify possible sanctions against North Korea, under the North Korea Human Rights Bill. Meanwhile, Japanese defence chief Fukushiro Nukaga has declared that following the tests, Japan wants to develop a joint missile defence system with the United States as quickly as possible.

South Korea: The government of President Roh Moo-hyun has refrained from supporting punitive measures against North Korea, with Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok calling for "patient dialogue" rather than sanctions. As such, he follows the traditional line of engagement undertaken by the Uri government, although the administration is coming under increasing pressure from the opposition Grand National Party (GNP) and large segments of the population, which claim it has lost face and are calling for a fundamental re-evaluation of the country’s North Korea policy in the wake of the missile tests. Meanwhile, the government also has to consider its relationship with its closest ally, the United States, which it has recently jeopardised over the issue.

China and Russia: As North Korea’s closest allies and veto-wielding powers on the UN Security Council, China and Russia have signalled opposition to sanctions against North Korea, and thus offer an obstacle to the policy line pushed by the United States and Japan. Following yesterday's emergency session, China's UN ambassador Wang Guangya stated that despite Chinese concerns, a response should be "constructive to maintaining peace in that part of the world". China is expected to veto any sanctions, due to its recurring fears that a North Korean implosion could destabilise its north-eastern border regions with massive refugee flows.

Outlook and Implications

The differing agendas of the six-party nations will hinder the possibility of reaching agreement on a unified international response within the framework of the UN. As a result, the imposition of economic sanctions hinges to a great degree on the policy course of China and Russia, which are threatening to veto any such resolutions. They are currently faced with the question of whether the most comprehensive course of action lies in pressing ahead with punitive measures or protecting the volatile Kim Jong-il, in the hope that they will thereby succeed in maintaining a modicum of influence over his actions. China, the most important power in the six-party talks, is engaging in a balancing act between its wish to prop up its troublesome ally, in order to ensure stability, and the necessity of maintaining good relations with the United States.

The North Korean decision to launch the missiles despite Chinese opposition is an embarrassment for the leadership in Beijing, which has not held as much power over the Kim regime as expected. It now remains to be seen whether efforts to rein in North Korea’s nuclear programme will take place through the framework of the UN, the six-party talks or a coalition led by the United States and Japan.

Raul Dary

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