Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The revived plan abides by the tenets outlined in the 2002 proposal by then-Crown Prince Abdullah, which offered normalisation of ties with Israel in return for Israel’s withdrawal from land occupied in 1967 and the Jewish state’s acceptance of a “just” settlement for Palestinian refugees.

Implications

Much has altered since King Abdullah’s 2002 proposal, not least Hamas’ accession to power in a landslide election victory in January 2006. Hamas, which heads the new national unity Palestinian government, has voiced reservations about the peace deal, although it is unlikely to oppose it.

Outlook

The main stumbling block remains Israel’s unwavering opposition to the issue of the return of Palestinian refugees; Arab leaders have refused to revoke calls for a negotiated political settlement to the Palestinian refugee question. The experiences of previous Arab summits are not encouraging, with regional rivalries trumping the search for a collective settlement of the enduring Palestinian dilemma.

Another Arab Summit, Another Peace Plan.

Much has changed since then-Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia unveiled his Middle East peace plan amid the pomp and ceremony of the Arab League summit in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, in 2002. Crucially, the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq propelled the Middle East peace process onto the diplomatic backburner. Although the demise of Baathist Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein was secured with relative ease, achieving post-war reconstruction and national consensus proved much more complicated amid a relentless insurgency that inflamed pre-existing sectarian and ethnic fractures in Iraq. Since the destruction of a Shi’a mausoleum in Samarra in February 2006, sectarian bloodletting has reached worrying new heights, pitting Shi’as against Sunnis and spurring concerns of a regionalisation of the conflict. Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia, as the pre-eminent Sunni powerbroker in the region, has taken the lead in trying to forge a breakthrough on the Palestinian question, in a bid to reassert its somewhat-waning regional clout in the face of an assertive Shi’a Iran under the leadership of President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad.

The Saudi leadership pulled off an impressive coup when it brokered a deal between the rival Hamas and Fatah factions—known as the Mecca Declaration after the holy city in Saudi Arabia where the deal was inked—laying the painstaking groundwork for the formation of the new Palestinian national unity government (see Palestinian Authority: 26 March 2007: Muted International Reaction as Palestinians Unveil New National Unity Government). Today’s Arab summit seeks to build on the foundations laid in Mecca in January 2007 (see Palestinian Authority: 9 February 2007: Historic Unity Government Deal Sealed by Palestinian Factions). The United States, bruised by its Iraq dilemma, has backed Saudi efforts to revive its 2002 peace plan. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who kicked off this week with a round of shuttle diplomacy to regional allies, has urged Arab leaders to “reach out” to Israel at the Arab summit (see Middle East Regional: 26 March 2007: U.S. Secretary of State Kicks off Middle East Peace Mission). 

Despite reservations from Hamas with regard to certain clauses within the peace deal, its leadership—chiefly Prime Minister Ismail Haniya and the group’s Syria-based leader-in-exile, Khalid Meshal—will not scupper the Saudi peace proposal, instead adopting a policy of “ambiguity”, that underlines the increased flexibility and pragmatism of the Hamas leadership. A spokesman for Hamas in the Palestinian parliament, Salah al-Bardawil told the Israeli leftist daily, Ha’aretz, that, "we will not agree to recognition of Israel or peace with it as it appears in the initiative. We have no problem with the part of the initiative that calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders and the right of refugees to return". In a further indication of Hamas’ new-found pragmatism, Haniya today said that “substantial progress” has been made in securing the release of an Israeli soldier captured by Palestinian militants nine months ago.

A Conflict-Ridden Region

The plethora of security woes and tensions affecting the region means that the Palestinian question is not the only concern of Arab delegates. There is a host of seemingly intractable problems, ranging from the ongoing political standoff in Lebanon to the crisis in Sudan’s Darfur region, which are also up for discussion. Furthermore, there are two rival Lebanese factions attending the conference, one fronted by Western-backed Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and the other led by pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, underlining the entrenched political divisions in the country. Despite consistent efforts by the Arab League chief, Amr Moussa, to bridge the gap between the two camps, a breakthrough remains elusive.

Outlook and Implications

Weaving through the host of interrelated political and security dilemmas confronting the Arab world requires more than an annual gathering of Arab heads of state. At best, the revived Saudi peace initiative will offer a tentative “roadmap” outlining the difficult steps necessary to facilitate a return to the negotiating table. The road to an eventual Middle East peace settlement will zig zag through Damascus, Beirut and other Arab capitals before reaching Jerusalem. The regional impediments in the path of a settlement are plenty. As for resolving the additional catalogue of regional ills, no-one would be advised to hold their breath for anything substantive.

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