Second Time Lucky for Obama in Copenhagen?

U.S. president Barack Obama yesterday put an end to months of speculation over whether he would attend next month’s United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Copenhagen, Denmark. According to the press release, the president will travel to the country on 9 December where he will participate in discussions over what the world can do to reduce its carbon footprint. This is the first day of the 12-day event; Obama is stopping there en route for Oslo (Norway) where he will pick up his Nobel Peace Prize. There is some disappointment that he is not planning to be there for the end of the negotiations, when other world leaders will be in attendance. It is not out of the question that Obama will return at that stage, but officials are playing down this prospect. The administration has characterised the decision to go to Copenhagen as "a sign of his continuing commitment and leadership to find a global solution to the global threat of climate change, and to lay the foundation for a new, sustainable and prosperous clean energy future". This will be the second time in four months that Obama has visited the Danish capital, but he will be hoping this visit pays more dividends than his unsuccessful September pitch for Chicago to host the 2016 Olympics. Also in attendance in Copenhagen from the U.S. administration will be Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lisa P. Jackson, Energy Secretary Steven Chu, and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar.

On the same day it was revealed that Obama is prepared to discuss U.S. CO2 reduction targets of 17% by 2020, compared to 2005 levels. Up until now, a failure by the president to enumerate how far his country might be willing to go, if it all, on emissions has overshadowed preparations for Copenhagen. This might therefore be interpreted as an unexpected concession, but the administration has played this down, arguing instead that it is taking its lead from Congress. The House of Representatives approved these targets in June, within a longer-term goal of 83% cuts by 2050. The Senate has yet to agree on its version of the targets, and there is considerable resistance there to overcome. Moreover, the administration is making it clear that the targets would only be possible "in the context of an overall deal in Copenhagen that includes robust mitigation contributions from China and the other emerging economies". Thus, with plenty of get-out clauses, the announcement has to be kept in perspective.

China Responds

The participation of the United States is vital for an effective global climate change agreement, but so is that of China. The latter recently moved into first place as the world's largest carbon emitter, and the economy's continuing rapid growth threatens to overwhelm any cuts achieved by smaller economies. In the past the Chinese government has been cool on making sharp cuts, arguing that it is advanced economies who created the problem and who have the resources to combat it. However, the tone has increasingly softened and China has been proud to trumpet its huge investment in renewable energy. Hot on the heels of Obama's announcements, the Chinese government announced today that it has agreed a new target to reduce emissions by 2020. However, this is set out in terms of carbon intensity, which would be cut by 40–45% compared to 2005 levels. Carbon intensity refers to the amount of emissions in relation to GDP. Total emissions would still rise, but the pace of increase would be much slower than in the past. This approach of course differs from the absolute targets favoured by the advanced economies, but at least it shows that China is committed to the Copenhagen summit and will be a constructive participant. China has also announced that it will be represented by Premier Wen Jiabao at the meeting. He is clearly a prestigious attendee, although one notch below President Hu Jintao. Obama's pressure on China over climate change at recent summits appears to have had some impact, and he has also been courting India assiduously. The latter's prime minister has been visited the United States this week, but has yet to offer a firm pledge on targets.

Outlook and Implications

While clarification of the U.S. position is to be welcomed as a starting point for discussion and negotiation, the 17% target lacks punch when other countries are promising deeper cuts. Moreover, it is not clear that the president is able to commit his country to this target even if a broad agreement does emerge in Copenhagen. The administration points out that the proposal is in line with the bill passed by the House of Representatives in June, but the Senate is still debating its own version. The Senate draft is currently looking at 20% reductions by 2020 compared to 2005, but this is likely to be watered down as it passes through the various committees. There are more differences in the fine print of the two drafts, and it looks unlikely that the legislative process will be wrapped up before early 2010. The fact Obama is attending is nonetheless a boon for the conference organisers and it will add to pressure on other world leaders to follow suit. If they do attend they will not want to be seen returning empty-handed. This improves prospects for a meaningful deal at the conference, but this is still unlikely to be more than an interim step before further negotiations ensue. This was already effectively confirmed by Obama and other leaders at the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Singapore.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)