Bolivia on the Brink

Four of the ALBA’s five members came together yesterday to condemn Bolivia’s opposition at a time when domestic dialogue has dissolved . Instead of offering any form of resolution, Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez joined his Nicaraguan counterpart Daniel Ortega and Cuba’s Vice-President Carlos Lage in accusing rightist opponents of the Morales administration of pursuing “destabilisation plans” as they seek to break up Bolivia. Political tensions in Bolivia have been tight for months, intensifying as the 4 May de facto referendum on devolution approaches, scheduled to take place in Santa Cruz province, which is a heartland of opposition to the MAS. Speaking on behalf of the bloc, which officially includes Dominica (despite concerns within the Caribbean country), President Chávez announced the ALBA’s decision “to release a declaration to the world [expressing our] solidarity with and support for the Republic of Bolivia, the people of Bolivia and our comrade Evo Morales”. Diverse members of the opposition simultaneously condemned President Chávez’s involvement in Bolivia’s domestic problems and accused him of violating their nation’s sovereignty in various statements to press. Conversely, the leaders of the ALBA condemned the Bolivian opposition’s presumed violation of the constitution in pursuit of an arbitrary plebiscite that lacks the recognition of national electoral authorities. Five of Bolivia’s nine provinces harbour separatist ambitions amid the ruling MAS’s attempt to institutionalise its leftist project through a new constitution without the input of opposition parties such as Podemos (“We Can”), headed by former president Jorge Quiroga.

Railing against the opposition, President Morales thanked his ALBA colleagues for their support and hailed their potential role in offering “ideological clarity” to assist efforts to resolve the ongoing crisis. However, he is under no pretensions as to the severity of the challenges now facing the poorest nation in South America. He described Bolivia as being on the point of exploding, in an interview with the BBC, and subsequently sought renewed assistance from the OAS. The regional body’s Secretary for Political Affairs, Dante Capputo, issued a renewed call for dialogue in the Andean nation yesterday while warning of the risks of violent clashes. On the same day, Bolivia’s Ambassador to the UN, Reynaldo Cuadros, indirectly played down President Morales’s fighting talk in Venezuela and expressed the head of state’s willingness to sit down with Bolivian opposition provincial prefects (governors) in talks hosted by the OAS in the U.S. capital, Washington, D.C. Prefects such as Santa Cruz’s Rubén Costas have yet to answer such proposals for dialogue. The Americas arm of the UN has already sent a mission to Bolivia this month, but little progress has been recorded . Prior to his surprise Venezuelan visit, President Morales participated in a meeting at the UN in New York (the United States) addressing indigenous issues, which demonstrated in part his willingness to co-operate with international organisations alongside his role in promoting the rights of indigenous peoples. He is the first president of indigenous origin to serve in Bolivia.

Outlook and Implications

President Chávez’s decision to call yesterday’s meeting was part of a wider effort to demonstrate the ALBA’s supposed clout on the world stage. Major players that have offered to mediate to date include the European Union and the OAS. Chávez's approach is unlikely to yield any results in Bolivia where the opposition is vehemently critical of his regime and interference in local politics. From a broader perspective, repeated accusations that the United States is the driver of the current troubles in Bolivia will not help the bloc to raise its global diplomatic reputation. Countering yesterday's display of unity from the ALBA, the Bolivian opposition has engaged in its own international affairs activities to raise awareness of its grievances abroad. Calls have been issued for international missions to attend proposed referenda on the topic of secession amid a growing fear of state violence.

Given diplomatic limitations, the only tangible result of the surprise session came in the form of a food security co-operation pact signed between the present members of the ALBA. The theme is set to be a priority at the scheduled summit to be hosted by Nicaragua’s President Ortega in the capital, Managua, on 7 May. The accord includes the allocation of a US$100-million fund designed to help the member states address the problem of food shortages, and a pact encouraging members to develop new agro-industrial policies to boost production. With food prices and supply now a major preoccupation for developing countries, the ALBA accord is just one in a series of similar agreements; further north, Central American agriculture policymakers will meet up in Panama today to establish a coherent scheme to combat the crisis. In Bolivia, President Morales increased investors’ worries earlier this month by threatening to nationalise companies in the comestible oil sector. The possible measure was announced a month after Bolivia’s government banned comestible oil exports in the light of domestic shortages. Exports are now permitted again provided that companies comply with price controls in the domestic market. Food security is a sensitive political issue around the globe, and is being assessed in a forthcoming special report by Global Insight.