Deactivating the Cabal

There had been some speculation recently that Jonathan might seek to consolidate his power in view of pressure he was receiving from various quarters attempting to suppress his authority. For weeks, the press has reported that Jonathan has been constrained from freely exercising his power by figures within the camp loyal to the substantive president, Umaru Yar'Adua, with local media identifying the ailing president's wife, Turai Yar'Adua, as an obstructive force who has been instrumental in undermining Jonathan's authority. The rumour is that it was Turai who prompted Yar'Adua's return from Saudi Arabia to keep Jonathan from becoming too powerful, just after he had been made acting president. But it is not just Turai who has been characterised in this way. There are a number of personalities who have been classified as members of the cabal or kitchen cabinet who have thwarted attempts by Jonathan to assert his authority. Just this week Business Day reported that a group of 12 men had written to Jonathan to caution him against tampering with the cabinet composition, for the cabinet was a continuation of the Yar'Adua administration.

There have also been flashes of Jonathan's political independence in recent weeks. The day after becoming acting president, Jonathan demoted the vocal and staunch Yar'Adua loyalist Michael Aondoakaa, then attorney-general and justice minister, placing him in the Special Duties Ministry instead. Aondoakaa had openly opposed the idea of Jonathan becoming acting president, bitterly contesting the open secret that Yar'Adua was too unfit to lead the country even after Yar'Adua had not been seen in public since November. Amid mounting criticism from proponents of political change, with Jonathan becoming criticised for seemingly not taking a strong enough stance, the acting president composed the Presidential Advisory Committee at the beginning of March. The 26-member body is mandated to tackle key issues including amnesty in the Niger Delta, reviving the power sector, and electoral reform. Arguably, just as Jonathan was hitting his stride, the crisis in the area around Jos, Plateau State, occurred. Jonathan was forced to react, especially after blame was pointed at the government's lack of responsiveness and inability to pre-empt the violence so soon after January's attack of a similar nature. Thus, the national security advisor became the next to go: Sarki Mukhtar was dismissed and replaced by former security guru Aliyu Gusau.

New Cabinet

At this critical juncture in Nigeria's political trajectory, the motivation behind the dismissal of the cabinet is clear. In the midst of the political intrigue, Jonathan presumably felt the need to reassert his authority, especially as the likelihood of Yar'Adua returning to political office looks increasingly slim. There still have not been any public sightings of Yar'Adua since he reportedly returned to Nigeria on 24 February; even his mother has been reportedly precluded from seeing him. Jonathan will need a strong team to get Nigeria through this tumultuous period. The threat of a resurgence of high-level militancy in the Niger Delta looms: the notorious Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta recently vowed to up the ante in the oil-producing region this week, following the explosion of two car bombs in the Delta State capital of Warri during a high-delegation post-amnesty conference. Last week's flare-up of inter-communal violence just outside of Jos resulted in more than 200 deaths and mass displacements, as the settler Fulani population attacked the indigenous Berom community. Longstanding tensions between the two sides intrinsically linked to the imbalance of land rights and access to public services and jobs threaten to continue, presenting a real challenge to Jonathan's authority. Just yesterday there were fresh reports of renewed violence close to Jos, in which more than 10 people were killed. In light of these challenges, Jonathan needs a strong, united cabinet working with him, not conspiring against him.

Lobbying for positions has already begun, with some dismissed ministers reportedly seeking help from governors and senators, This Day reports. The ministerial list of appointees is expected to be sent to the Senate in the next couple of weeks, but speculation is rife as to what shape the political chessboard will take. Crucial ministries said to be in the line of fire for robust changes include petroleum, power, works, Niger Delta, and agriculture and water resources, according to This Day. A change at the helm of the Petroleum Ministry is likely to be unsettling for the investor community, particularly at a time when Nigeria is coming close to a complete overhaul of the petroleum sector under the auspice of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB). The PIB has not yet been passed and has been the subject of much deliberation among various stakeholders, but the complete shake-up of the sector could be put in doubt if the current petroleum minister, Rilwanu Lukman, is removed from his position, given that he has been a crucial architect of the text.

But members of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) have seemingly thrown their support behind Jonathan, presumably in a bid to stay on the right side of the acting president in the hope of securing positions in the midst of the cull. The acting president's spokesman, Ima Niboro, told This Day that the dissolution of the cabinet was aimed at "inject[ing] fresh blood and…even greater vigour to governance. It is part of the larger strategy to frontally confront the core challenges that face the nation at this critical moment of our history." The PDP's national publicity secretary expressed that the move did not come as much of a surprise, but that it was Jonathan's constitutional right to take such a bold move.

Outlook and Implications

In the past week, Nigeria has been pushed to the precipice with awakened internecine strife in the country's middle belt and renewed insurgent activity in the oil-rich Niger Delta region, which militants have warned will become more amplified. Set against a backdrop of persistent challenges to the authority of the acting president by members of the pro-Yar'Adua alliance—or rather, ministers keen to ensure that their positions remain intact—Jonathan has arguably been left with little choice but to assert his authority by dissolving the cabinet. The move has the potential to result in Jonathan being left to compose a more unified and competent cabinet, committed to pursuing his stated objectives of tackling the thorny issues of the Niger Delta, power regeneration, and electoral reform. But the by-product is political uncertainty. Questions are being asked as to what form the new cabinet will take, particularly regarding the key ministries of petroleum and power, and what effect such changes could have on reforms that are currently being deliberated in Parliament.