Goodluck Jonathan has dissolved Nigeria's 42-member cabinet, leaving questions as to what shape the new line-up will take.
IHS
Global Insight Perspective
Significance: Yesterday, acting president Goodluck
Jonathan dissolved Nigeria's cabinet. No formal explanation was given, but in
the meantime permanent secretaries will take over the ministries.
Implications: There had been
mounting speculation that Jonathan would dissolve the cabinet given the schisms
within the outgoing government and the attempts that have been made to subvert
his authority.
Outlook: The
dissolution of the cabinet comes after an intense week in Nigeria, following
the intercommunal violence in Jos, Plateau State, and the resurgence of
militancy in the Niger Delta. The move is clearly an attempt by Jonathan to
reassert his authority; nevertheless, the decision does create some
uncertainty, particularly as the country is going through reforms within
certain sectors, namely the petroleum industry.
Yesterday, acting president Goodluck Jonathan
took the decisive step of dissolving the cabinet. The move was announced by the
now-former information minister, Dora Akunyili, who told reporters:
"Today, the Acting President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan dissolved the Federal
Executive Council. He did not give any reason and so I cannot give any
reason," This Day reports. Akunyili said that there would be no power
vacuum because the ministries' permanent secretaries would take over in the
interim. The bold decision came at the very end of a six-hour cabinet meeting
during which other matters were discussed. According to an unnamed former
minister, Jonathan gave nothing away and appeared calm throughout the
deliberations, before rounding off the meeting by informing ministers that the
cabinet had been dissolved and thanking them for their service.
Deactivating the Cabal
There had been some speculation recently that
Jonathan might seek to consolidate his power in view of pressure he was
receiving from various quarters attempting to suppress his authority. For
weeks, the press has reported that Jonathan has been constrained from freely
exercising his power by figures within the camp loyal to the substantive
president, Umaru Yar'Adua, with local media identifying the ailing president's
wife, Turai Yar'Adua, as an obstructive force who has been instrumental in
undermining Jonathan's authority. The rumour is that it was Turai who prompted
Yar'Adua's return from Saudi Arabia to keep Jonathan from becoming too
powerful, just after he had been made acting president. But it is not just
Turai who has been characterised in this way. There are a number of
personalities who have been classified as members of the cabal or kitchen
cabinet who have thwarted attempts by Jonathan to assert his authority. Just
this week Business Day reported that a group of 12 men had written to
Jonathan to caution him against tampering with the cabinet composition, for the
cabinet was a continuation of the Yar'Adua administration.
There have also been flashes of Jonathan's
political independence in recent weeks. The day after becoming acting
president, Jonathan demoted the vocal and staunch Yar'Adua loyalist Michael
Aondoakaa, then attorney-general and justice minister, placing him in the
Special Duties Ministry instead. Aondoakaa had openly opposed the idea of
Jonathan becoming acting president, bitterly contesting the open secret that
Yar'Adua was too unfit to lead the country even after Yar'Adua had not been
seen in public since November. Amid mounting criticism from proponents of
political change, with Jonathan becoming criticised for seemingly not taking a
strong enough stance, the acting president composed the Presidential Advisory
Committee at the beginning of March. The 26-member body is mandated to tackle
key issues including amnesty in the Niger Delta, reviving the power sector, and
electoral reform. Arguably, just as Jonathan was hitting his stride, the crisis
in the area around Jos, Plateau State, occurred. Jonathan was forced to react,
especially after blame was pointed at the government's lack of responsiveness
and inability to pre-empt the violence so soon after January's attack of a similar
nature. Thus, the national security advisor became the next to go: Sarki
Mukhtar was dismissed and replaced by former security guru Aliyu Gusau.
New Cabinet
At this critical juncture in Nigeria's
political trajectory, the motivation behind the dismissal of the cabinet is
clear. In the midst of the political intrigue, Jonathan presumably felt the
need to reassert his authority, especially as the likelihood of Yar'Adua
returning to political office looks increasingly slim. There still have not
been any public sightings of Yar'Adua since he reportedly returned to Nigeria
on 24 February; even his mother has been reportedly precluded from seeing him.
Jonathan will need a strong team to get Nigeria through this tumultuous period.
The threat of a resurgence of high-level militancy in the Niger Delta looms:
the notorious Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta recently vowed
to up the ante in the oil-producing region this week, following the explosion
of two car bombs in the Delta State capital of Warri during a high-delegation
post-amnesty conference. Last week's flare-up of inter-communal violence just
outside of Jos resulted in more than 200 deaths and mass displacements, as the
settler Fulani population attacked the indigenous Berom community. Longstanding
tensions between the two sides intrinsically linked to the imbalance of land
rights and access to public services and jobs threaten to continue, presenting
a real challenge to Jonathan's authority. Just yesterday there were fresh
reports of renewed violence close to Jos, in which more than 10 people were killed.
In light of these challenges, Jonathan needs a strong, united cabinet working
with him, not conspiring against him.
Lobbying for positions has already begun, with
some dismissed ministers reportedly seeking help from governors and senators, This
Day reports. The ministerial list of appointees is expected to be sent to
the Senate in the next couple of weeks, but speculation is rife as to what
shape the political chessboard will take. Crucial ministries said to be in the
line of fire for robust changes include petroleum, power, works, Niger Delta,
and agriculture and water resources, according to This Day. A change at
the helm of the Petroleum Ministry is likely to be unsettling for the investor
community, particularly at a time when Nigeria is coming close to a complete
overhaul of the petroleum sector under the auspice of the Petroleum Industry
Bill (PIB). The PIB has not yet been passed and has been the subject of much
deliberation among various stakeholders, but the complete shake-up of the
sector could be put in doubt if the current petroleum minister, Rilwanu Lukman,
is removed from his position, given that he has been a crucial architect of the
text.
But members of the ruling People's Democratic
Party (PDP) have seemingly thrown their support behind Jonathan, presumably in
a bid to stay on the right side of the acting president in the hope of securing
positions in the midst of the cull. The acting president's spokesman, Ima
Niboro, told This Day that the dissolution of the cabinet was aimed at
"inject[ing] fresh blood and…even greater vigour to governance. It is part
of the larger strategy to frontally confront the core challenges that face the
nation at this critical moment of our history." The PDP's national
publicity secretary expressed that the move did not come as much of a surprise,
but that it was Jonathan's constitutional right to take such a bold move.
Outlook and
Implications
In the past week, Nigeria has been pushed to
the precipice with awakened internecine strife in the country's middle belt and
renewed insurgent activity in the oil-rich Niger Delta region, which militants
have warned will become more amplified. Set against a backdrop of persistent
challenges to the authority of the acting president by members of the
pro-Yar'Adua alliance—or rather, ministers keen to ensure that their positions
remain intact—Jonathan has arguably been left with little choice but to assert
his authority by dissolving the cabinet. The move has the potential to result
in Jonathan being left to compose a more unified and competent cabinet,
committed to pursuing his stated objectives of tackling the thorny issues of
the Niger Delta, power regeneration, and electoral reform. But the by-product
is political uncertainty. Questions are being asked as to what form the new
cabinet will take, particularly regarding the key ministries of petroleum and
power, and what effect such changes could have on reforms that are currently
being deliberated in Parliament.
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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02/09/2006| |
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01/09/2006| |
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30/08/2006| |
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02/08/2006| |
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02/08/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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21/07/2006| |
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20/07/2006| |
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20/07/2006| |
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18/07/2006| |
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16/07/2006| |
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13/07/2006| |
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12/07/2006| |
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12/07/2006| |
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07/07/2006| |
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07/07/2006| |
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06/07/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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28/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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04/06/2006| |
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09/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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18/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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29/01/2006| |
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23/09/2005| |
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