Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The attacks in Algiers, which have been claimed by the North African franchise of al-Qaida, come on the back of renewed militant activity in neighbouring Morocco. Although the Moroccan authorities have dismissed links between the attacks in Algiers and renewed activity in its own backyard, the possibility of co-ordination cannot be ruled out.

Implications

Earlier this year, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) rebranded itself as al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and vowed to stage attacks in Morocco, Tunisia and Mauritania, weaving broader regional ambitions within its domestic agenda.

Outlook

Despite yesterday’s carnage, Algerian Prime Minister Abdelaziz Belkhadem, whose offices were targeted in the attacks, has vowed to forge ahead with parliamentary polls slated for next month. The attacks have, however, left the national reconciliation initiative spearheaded by President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in tatters, sparking concerns of a renewed cycle of terrorist activity in north Africa.

A Blood-Drenched History

The three almost-simultaneous suicide bomb attacks in the Algerian capital, Algiers—which targeted government offices in the city centre, the road leading to the international airport in the eastern suburb of Bab Ezzouar and a police station, all arteries of the Algerian state—sent a message of defiance to the North African nation’s leaders in the lead-up to next month’s parliamentary polls. The nullification of Algeria’s first ill-fated post-independence polls in 1992—which would have paved the way to an Islamist victory—by the country’s military leadership set the stage for a decade of bloody violence with a death toll in excess of 150,000.

The violence gradually subsided as a result of the tough counter-terrorism strategy pursued by the Algerian security forces, supplanted by a national reconciliation initiative, spearheaded by long-time leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika, which was endorsed in an October 2005 referendum. Despite these advances, there were detectable signals that militant Islamists were planning to up the tempo in their campaign against the government and Western commercial interests in the country. The announcement earlier this year by the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) that it would rebrand itself as al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb was accompanied by increased attacks, including;

The ambush of a military convoy on 5 May west of Algiers, in which nine soldiers and an equal number of Islamic militants were killed. The military authorities that led the brutal crackdown against Islamic militants in the country remain a prized target for insurgents.

A bomb attack on a bus south of Algiers, in which at least four workers from the Russian company, Stroytransgaz, together with three Algerians, were killed in March 2007. Last month’s attack against Stroytransgaz staff underlined an increased pattern of violence against oil service personnel. A similar attack in December 2006 against a bus carrying employees of the Brown and Root Condor (BRC) company—a subsidiary of the Algerian Sonatrach oil company and of the U.S. construction firm, Halliburton—also resulted in one fatality, with the choice of energy sector targets refocusing attentions on the security of Western interests in the country.

Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb?

Yesterday’s explosions in Algeria also come on the back of renewed clashes between Moroccan security forces and suspected Islamic militants. A foiled suicide bomb attack last month at an internet café in the impoverished district of Sidi Moumen in the Moroccan city of Casablanca set the scene for running battles between Moroccan security forces and suspected militants, in which three would-be suicide bombers and a police officer were killed . Since November 2006, Moroccan authorities are thought to have arrested dozens of suspected militant Islamists, dismantling networks aimed at recruiting footsoldiers prepared to carry attacks against Western targets in Morocco as well as further afield in Iraq. Although Moroccan Interior Minister Chakib Benmoussa yesterday downplayed the possibility of operational links between yesterday’s blasts in Algeria and increased Islamist activity in Casablanca—in a bid to avoid jitteriness amongst foreign visitors to Morocco—the possibility of a broader regional campaign cannot be ruled out.

Outlook and Implications

Whether the perpetrators of yesterday’s attack were motivated by a domestic agenda or whether it marks the start of a wider regional campaign, it is nonetheless a bloody reminder of the continued tenacity of those militant Islamist cells—more likely to be ideologically rather than operationally linked to al-Qaida—that retain a presence on the pathway to Europe. Moroccans were charged with the Madrid train bombing of 2004, while an Algerian is currently awaiting trial for his alleged role in the 1995 Paris metro bombing, emphasising the security threats to Europe that continue to emanate from north Africa. Yesterday’s attacks are a wake-up call against complacence to the threat of militant Islamism in North Africa.

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