Significance: At least three people were killed and over a hundred injured yesterday, in one of the first major nationwide protests calling for political change in the Arab world's most populous nation.  

Implications: Inspired by events in Tunisia—which saw the country’s president removed from power last week—the protest is likely to be the first of many of its kind in Egypt. Given the sheer numbers of those willing to participate, the developments represent a serious threat to the regime’s stability.

Outlook: The latest series of events is likely to cast some doubt over Egypt's positive political and economic outlook. Although the government is likely to prove capable of keeping a lid on the situation in the short term, as time goes on, the challenges it faces are likely to become greater. Overcoming this would require a more managed reconciliatory approach, to which the regime has so far been unaccustomed.   

Under Control, for Now… 

Tens of thousands took to the streets yesterday (26 January) to call for political change in Egypt. Protests were seen across Egypt's major town and cities, the largest being in the capital Cairo. Two protesters died in the port city of Suez during yesterday's unrest. A policeman was also killed when he was hit in the head with a rock in Cairo, the Interior Ministry confirmed today. In echoes of the recent Tunisian protests, most of the protesters were young men and teenagers. Demands for greater political openness in the country, ruled by current President Hosni Mubarak for three decades, came second to anger over high food prices, corruption and the lack of employment opportunities. Calm has since been restored, but there are reports of new protests planned later this evening. Thousands of armoured police have been deployed around key locations in Cairo in apparent anticipation of new violence.

Following the event, reports have begun to emerge that the president's son and heir apparent, Gamal Mubarak, has left the country. Many Egyptians oppose a father-to-son-style takeover. Gamal, a former banker and head of the ruling party's policy secretariat, nonetheless remains popular with the country's wealthy business elite. The events have already begun to rattle investors and Egypt's stock market took a dive, having fallen by 5.3% by midday on the back of the protests.    

Tunisia’s "Jasmine Revolution"

There is no doubt that the events in Egypt yesterday were inspired by those in Tunisia. For many Egyptians, the Tunisians achieved what they thought was impossible. The protests this time around were more brazen than ever before in Tunisia . After many years of political constraints, Egyptians had become disillusioned over prospects of change. Typically, a protest would be staged with police would outnumbering protesters 100 to one, or sometime more, which would obviously be a demoralising factor for protesters. Chants of protesters are drowned out by the sound of police beating their batons against their shields. Protests are also typically forced away from strategic areas and landmarks in the capital and other cities, limiting their visibility and lessening their symbolic impact. Over time, it has become more common for the government to, for example, permit protests for issues such as the Gaza blockade in the country’s national stadium, with it being a controlled environment at significant distance from Cairo’s city centre.   

Outlook and Implications  

Events in Tunisia are not expected to be replicated anytime soon in Egypt: a number of key factors present within the Tunisian context are absent for Egypt. Nonetheless, the effects of the demonstrations are clearly visible and the Tunisian case has provided inspiration to many in Egypt. Egypt's police are, at least in the short to medium term, likely to retain the capacity to ensure that protests will not get out of hand, although they may struggle to do this in some cases. The tactics adopted may become increasingly brutal as a means of deterring new protests. It is likely that the government may use live rounds and would be willing to incur casualities among protesters, even given the risk of inflaming public opinion further. The Egyptian army may also be deployed as a last resort, should events get out of hand. The Egyptian security forces are generally considered to be cohesive and loyal to the regime.  

Momentum is likely to increase, however, as new demonstrations are held. Studies of social movements have shown that the more people mobilise, the more effective they become at it. People learn from experience, establishing new networks and appointing new local group leaders. The onus is now on the regime to manage events in a way not to increase feelings of marginalisation among the population, and will be required to tread carefully; the regime may avoid risks to the country’s stability if it is successful in this approach. Liberal economic reforms are likely to remain on hold and more concessions will have to be offered to the people, despite the country’s significant budget deficit.