IHS Global Insight Perspective

Significance: Basque separatist group ETA yesterday issued a call for "a permanent and general ceasefire which will be verifiable by the international community".

Implications: The Spanish government remains highly sceptical of the declaration, deeming the latest olive branch by ETA as insufficient to guarantee an end to the decades-long fight against the group.

Outlook: The latest declaration by ETA comes following an equally cool reception from the government to the September 2010 ceasefire declaration and is a result of intense pressure from the Basque radical left for the group to call a permanent ceasefire. However with ETA already significantly weakened and the latest declaration failing to live up to the demands of the Spanish government, the development is unlikely to bring about radical changes to the country's security situation.

In a repeat of its September 2010 ceasefire declaration, the violent Basque separatist group Euskadi ta Askatasuna (ETA; Basque Country and Freedom) yesterday released a videotaped statement calling for a "permanent and general ceasefire which will be verifiable by the international community". The three masked figures in the video, initially released on the Web site of the Basque-language Gara newspaper, also underlined "ETA's firm commitment toward a process to achieve a lasting resolution and towards an end to the armed conflict." The video also called on Spain and France to end their repressive clampdowns on the group, as well as urging Basque people to agree to a future with independence as a possibility.

Although the video talked extensively of ceasefire, there was no mention of disbanding or disarming the organisation or abandoning terrorist activities, key preconditions set by the Spanish government for political engagement following the September 2010 declaration. The Spanish government was quick to condemn the latest video, with Prime Minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero rejecting the latest declaration on live television. Zapatero went on to state that the "only thing we are waiting for from ETA is a statement on its definitive dissolution". Interior Minister Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba echoed the prime minister's words, stating that ETA's ceasefire declaration is insufficient to guarantee an end to Spain's four-decade-long fight against the group.

Pressure from All Sides

Spain's socialist government has remained firm in its rejection of both the September and yesterday's ceasefire declarations. This is in part a reflection of lessons learned by the administration from past dealings with ETA. The government has been burned in the past by its dealings with ETA, having engaged in peace negotiations during the separatist organisation's last permanent ceasefire in 2006 only to see the group stage a deadly bomb attack at Madrid's Barajas International Airport. The negotiations and subsequent violent end to the ceasefire opened the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) up to accusations of being soft on ETA and failing to take the appropriate action to ensure that the group was put out of commission. As a result, the government is now refusing to engage with the group unless all of its preconditions are met. Namely, the government is insisting that ETA must disband and disarm before any talks are held, and that the ceasefire is "definitive, verifiable and unconditional".

In addition to the ongoing pressure from the central government, ETA has been under intense pressure in recent weeks from its own political representatives. ETA's banned political party, Batasuna, has issued a call for the militant group to declare a permanent, verifiable ceasefire. The call has come as part of Batasuna's efforts to get its own ban on participating in local and national polls, imposed in 2003, lifted before the municipal elections in May 2011. Zapatero has stated that this is only likely to happen if ETA either abandons its armed struggle or Batasuna condemns ETA's use of violence. Batasuna, as well as leaders of the radical left, abertzale, has welcomed the latest ceasefire, claiming it is a "brave" move by ETA.

Outlook and Implications

Although the latest ceasefire declaration has failed to live up to the expectations of the central government and has once again been met with scepticism, it indicates ETA's seeming willingness to pursue an end to the violent activities it has been known for. Scepticism over the motivations for ETA's ceasefire remains, with Spanish authorities believing that the militant organisation has been severely weakened as a result of the security clampdown instigated by local and French forces since 2008. ETA has in fact been accused of declaring the ceasefire in a bid to buy time to reorganise and regroup in the wake of the government clampdown. ETA's goal of an independent Basque state in northern Spain and south-west France is unlikely to be realised, with the idea not favoured by the majority of Spaniards or Basque citizens. However, increased autonomy for the already highly autonomous region could be on the cards in the longer term. The latest ceasefire declaration is an indication of the growing pressure on ETA from the Spanish government, as well as its own political elite, which has decided to prioritise democratic legality over links with the violent separatist group. With ETA increasingly standing alone, it may well be only a matter of time before the group is forced to fulfil the government's conditions, namely disarming and disbanding. However, a risk remains of splinter groups taking up the violent fight, meaning that peace in the Basque lands is far from guaranteed.