Egypt's supreme council of the armed forces, composed of the nation’s top commanders, has assumed control after embattled president Hosni Mubarak stepped down on Friday (11 February), ending 29 years of autocratic rule.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: The significant moment in Egyptian history
came after 18 days of mass rallies that swept revolutionary fervour through the
country and left 300 people dead.
Implications: Hosni Mubarak's removal from power has sent
shockwaves across the Middle East and North Africa region, and there is now
significant speculation over which Arab regime could be next.
Outlook: The next stage will by no means be easy, with
the lacklustre opposition expected to struggle to hammer out deals over key
issues and given the leaderless nature of the protests, for it to claim itself
as a genuine representative of the people.
A Defining Moment
Egyptians have achieved what many believed impossible
merely months earlier: the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak who had ruled the
populous country for three decades. The historic moment came after 18 days of
anti-government protests, during which the army played a pivotal role, acting
both as a protector and arbiter, while increasingly distancing itself from the
government and ruling party. At least 1 million people descended onto the
streets of Cairo to call for the ouster of Mubarak, who for years was a key
ally of the United States.
Days before the announcement the president seemed to be
digging in his heals, apparently determined to ride out the storm. He tested
the crowds with the offer of a number of reforms, but for the protestors, many
of whom gathered in Egypt’s emblematic Tahrir or Victory Square, his proposals
would not suffice and it became clear that nothing short of his removal from
office would halt the impassioned protests that, along with the deteriorating
security situation, had brought normal economic activity in the teeming capital
to a halt, with banks and many businesses remaining closed.
It is now that political wrangling over the country’s
future begins; however, given the weakness of the opposition, this appears
increasingly difficult. The protests have been portrayed as largely a
leaderless rebellion and it will be difficult for the opposition to claim to
represent the sheer diversity of people who took part.
Revolution or Military Coup?
In its statement, the supreme military council said that
it will manage the affairs of the country for a temporary period of six months.
It dissolved the upper and lower houses of parliament with the promise of new
elections and pledged to establish a committee to amend some of the clauses of
the Constitution. The amendments will be put forward for approval by the people
in a nationwide referendum. The events of the last few days clearly cannot be
explained by the strength of the protests alone, but behind the scenes the
military is manoeuvring. It has been suggested that the Egyptian military
decided to do away with Mubarak in order to avoid further crushing the Egyptian
state and the possibility of genuine revolution, suggesting that in some ways
the events could be better characterised as a military coup on the back of
rising protests, rather than solely a people's revolution.
Outlook and Implications
Egypt faces an uncertain time over the next few months;
however, a number of factors continue to bode well, most notably signs that the
army remains popular and although the aim is very much to ensure that a
civilian government is put in place, the people are content to see the supreme
military council oversee the transition. The fact that the government will
remain in place will ensure a certain degree of continuity, something that is
crucial to ensuring the effective day-to-day running of the country’s
ministries. The risk of extortion or nationalisation also remains extremely low
given the expressed desire not to unnerve Egypt’s business community.
Some analysts have also raised the spectre of the ouster
leading to more commercial opportunities should stability be guaranteed. The
country's business elite has long been calling for democracy and free markets
as a means of guaranteeing its investments. The international community, in
particular the United States, is likely to have breathed a sigh of relief when
the Supreme Council said that it was committed to adhering to its previous
international commitments, including those under the Camp David peace treaty
with Israel.
The Muslim Brotherhood also appears initially to be
behaving in a way so as to avoid jeopardising the current negotiations.
Although the strength of the Muslim Brotherhood remains by far one of the most
worrying issues, Egypt’s secularists may have to be content with it in the
future. A more moderate stance by the Brotherhood and its desire to work within
the parameters set out could make the transition far less problematic.
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